<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle22
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Isn’t the case that if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is stopped (Italy) then we will see a high death rate. But if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is not stopped, (US) then the death rate will fall as the “most vulnerable” are both eliminated and more assiduously protected. Am I missing a point, here? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>N<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, July 23, 2020 1:28 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>But compare across the three counties. <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Italy leads us to believe it is a simple lag between cases and deaths... <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>but the US and Sweden don't go with that at all. And adding more countries doesn't significantly help that confusion. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 3:07 PM Barry MacKichan <<a href="mailto:barry.mackichan@mackichan.com">barry.mackichan@mackichan.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down around Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier. We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the reporting process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>—Barry<br>On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #777777 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;margin-left:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:3.75pt'><div id="m_-5608578926987198336A060E97D-3AB1-4A1E-B19C-88919C929B8F"><div><div><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>B.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS changing. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>N<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='color:#777777'>From:</span></b><span style='color:#777777'> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Barry MacKichan<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='color:#777777'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people were predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened hospitals. Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If not, what would cause deaths to level off while cases (and hospitalizations as seen in the Atlantic article (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#3983C4'>https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/</span></a>) continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>—Barry<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #777777 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;margin-left:0in;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:3.75pt'><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after starting two weeks ago<o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #777777 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;margin-left:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:3.75pt'><p><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank"><span style='color:#777777'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#777777'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#777777'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>