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Dave sed:<br>
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<div style="font-family:Arial;">Neither you, nor 99% of the
populace, will be willing to travel via fully automated
airplane, for three reasons: 1) inability to write/produce 100%
correct software; 2) pilots are in the cockpit (nice sexist
name) for those 1 in a million events that are completely
unpredictable (Scully landing in the Hudson); and 3) airlines
will have blanket immunity from liability and therefore absent
any degree of trust.<br>
</div>
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<p>From the few airline pilots I know, I do believe most cockpit
crews are all but fully redundant to the automated systems, and
few of them are Sullenberger-good or Sullenberger-lucky enough to
make a difference in the increasingly obscure and esoteric "edge
cases". Sure, a "handsome/beautiful competent-looking"
cockpit-crew might give us yet more confidence that we are not
"all gonna die!" but I think they have gone beyond redundant in
many cases.<br>
</p>
<p>Rail (especially sub/elevated city) are already effectively
pilotless/driverless.... once 18 wheelers go driverless, buses
will follow and airlines won't be far behind (IMO). Humans trust
things they "shouldn't" all the time.<br>
</p>
<p>Few if any airliners (I believe) are not fully fly-by-wire...
even mechanically coupled systems of that scale are still
*hydraulic*. The 777 has a hydro-mechanical backup which surely
pilots are "fully trained on", but I'm not sure how many could
actually keep their plane in the air (or land?) under extreme
conditions without the myriad aids that come with digital
stabilization, etc. As per my ramble on learning "programming"
(logic?) from the innards of pinball machines, I acknowledge that
hydraulic-mechanical systems are a little easier to apprehend
by-inspection than those with electronic (and more to the point
digital-electronic) components.</p>
<p>From my (vintage/homebuilt) airplane enthusiast days I also
acknowledge that a feature (most) everyone designs-for and seeks
is "fail-safe" modes where any active component which might fail,
has a more robust fail-state that leaves any pilot *auto or human*
some yet-more-predictable-albeit-constrained-options than not.
From my '49 Luscombe days with a stall-speed of 45mph, I fully
agree with Frank's claim "the landing is the best part of the
whole flight!", an not just because you suddenly feel "safer",
though that is a part of it. It is one of the more acutely
technical moments... trying to arrange to "stall" just as your
wheels are getting good traction, and yet more "fun" when you add
gusty crosswinds. Liftoff is entirely different, but attaining
enough altitude to feel your reaction time will allow you to cope
with "surprises" is another inflection point. Flagstaff airport
had a bank of 100' tall ponderosas a hundred yards or more beyond
the runway... and while it was never close, I always felt I was
going to drag my gear in their tops as I reached that point. Los
Alamos is just the opposite... just past the runway, the canyon
edge takes you from 100' altitude to 1000' in seconds, a
breathtaking feeling when coupled with up/down-drafts!<br>
</p>
<p>Whether we believe in epiphenomena (other thread) or not,
"epi-systems" are rampant in complex engineering like airplane
control systems. Trim tabs on rudder, stabilizer, aileron, are
prime examples. I suppose that the term "epiphenomenon" is yet
another name for our ignorance and the approach vector we are on
toward it's resolution. I wonder if the way our naive attempts
to shave off our ignorance with layered ephiphenomenal models and
our more sophisticated attempts to shave off uncertainty/risk in
our engineered systems are not an example of Guerin's
dual-field/bidirectional flood-fill in conceptual space?<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:4eb6201b-275e-43b4-9c37-b27c00fd7cbf@www.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">RE: COVID ending by June. The only
reason it did not happen is a <b><i>liberal, anti-Trump,
conspiracy</i></b> to suppress the, at last count 30,
drugs/treatments/aerosols/etc. that would ameliorate the effects
(for all except those with significant co-morbidity factors) and
or dramatically decrease the risk of infection getting a
toehold. <b> :) :)</b><br>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>It's not too late to stock up on aquarium grade
hydroxychloroquine... it will probably come in handy for the
rampant post-apocalyptic malarial (and other mosquito-borne)
plagues that will come with the global warming we don't believe
in, bringing equatorial conditions to a much wider band of
(previously) habitable land. Canada will build a wall to keep us
in our own S*hole country stewing in our own juices (and make us
pay for it).</p>
<p>I'm on my way for my semi-daily swim at a chlorinated pool where
I feel mildly more safe from the next lane-swimmer's exhalations,
knowing that the air above the surface is enriched with
chlorinated water droplets and any COVID containing sputum they
may be flinging during their frantic swimming is landing on the
surface of chlorinated water. Maybe Donald was right... we
should "look into injecting disinfectants into our bodies" or at
least surrounding ourselves with it. Maybe resort-style dining in
shallow pools will be in vogue? <br>
</p>
<p>For TJ re: forged-in-fire... unlike *most* blacksmiths I know of,
I'm not terribly interested in edged weaponry. It does represent
a historical driver for highly technical blacksmithing and the
results are in high demand (gun/knife/sword nuts and SCA types)
and damascened steel IS very beautiful, but I'm generally more
interested in more mundane/utilitarian objects. I honestly don't
expect or intend to *ever* use a well made knife/sword/battle-axe
for it's designed intent (similar to an automatic weapon in that
regard). The most magical thing I know of, however, is bringing
two matched/shaped pieces of white-hot steel together and watching
them magically "become one" with a single blow (forge-welding).
A little grinding usually reveals whether the weld is
"complete". Tig/Mig/Gas welding always involves a state change
to liquid and back to solid to achieve the same thing. The
forge-weld is fascinating in that the surfaces (to some depth) of
both pieces are in some ambiguous transition state between liquid
and solid for the duration of the compression wave going through
the materials from the smith's hammer... I should probably look
more into the physics behind it, but for now it is pretty much
just "magic"! To add to the mystery, there is also an interesting
"tang" in the air I feel like I smell when steel is at that
precise point and is struck (shaping OR welding)... it is at
least part, the same odor as blood ... free iron molecules or iron
oxides?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:4eb6201b-275e-43b4-9c37-b27c00fd7cbf@www.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
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<div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br>
</div>
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<div>On Thu, Aug 13, 2020, at 12:00 PM, Steve Smith wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style="">
<p>I actually knew someone who lived near the Embry-Riddle
location in 2000/2001 where several of the 9/11 pilots learned
to fly well enough to do what they did. She had friends (go
figure) who worked at a strip-club who claimed these "boys"
were regulars there. It was pretty creepy 2nd order
connection. <br>
</p>
<p>My uncles were both pilots in WWII but the older was trained
up on the newfangled idea of a helicopter and proceeded to
become a test pilot for Sykorski. He was forced into
retirement (chief test pilot) to a desk at 65. Nobody wanted
to ground him, but "rules is rules" and in fact his health
degraded acutely and abruptly and he died just a few years
later. His family insists it was from "heartbreak" from being
grounded. <br>
</p>
<p>I have a "young" friend (now 40s) who was just finishing up
his commercial certification at Embry-Riddle Prescott on 9/11
and claims that the bottom not only dropped out for commercial
pilots for the next couple of years, but has "never recovered"
and he has been making a living as a bartender ever since.
Perhaps it is time for him to revisit. <br>
</p>
<p>My ex brother-in-law left his career in the Air Force to
become "a bus driver" and recently was retired (for age) from
Delta. Even 30 years ago things were incredibly automated.
I see no reason that airliners won't be entirely automated and
teleoperated in the next 20 years. The risk-profile of such
things is evolving as self-driving cars (and more aptly?
Semi-tractors?) emerge. <br>
</p>
<p>The hyperloop game is going to change long distance
rapid-transit eventually. I don't believe anyone is planning
for underground "ballistic-trajectory-velocities" quite yet,
but mag-lev-centered, evacuated tube, zero-grade velocities
could still be pretty impressive, and energy consumption as
well with magnetic (regenerative) braking. The earliest
days of railroading involved gravity-trains often with empty
return cars being towed by animal power. Yet others used
water from the high-side source as "ballast" and if the
up/down routes were mechanically coupled, the extra weight of
water plus load would allow the empties to be returned "for
free". <br>
</p>
<p>Regarding Dave's friend's drug conviction, Denzel
Washington's (one of a series of flawed) character in the
movie Flight is a drug-addled pilot who, by implication in the
story, actually achieves a heroic manouver *because* he's
still jacked on the cocaine he snorted to lift himself out of
his alcohol hangover. The setup is that a jackscrew
controlling horizontal stablizer breaks, forcing the nose of
the plane down with no recourse... Denzel's character quickly
recognizes the futility of the situation and the *opportunity*
of rolling the dive into an inverted orientation such that the
forced "nose down" is now "nose up".<br>
</p>
<p>Popular Mechanics (of all places) had an article on the
plausibility of the Cocaine effects supporting the story
(rather than the mechanics of inverted flying).<br>
</p>
<p>I suspect I could get work myself using my 40 year-stale
FortranIV experience on "mission critical" systems already old
at that time, but still in some sort of service. I did a huge
senior project on a FortranIV system for simulating exo-Terran
atmospheres (e.g. Mars) which might well be still be in
service? Fortunately my COBOL/RPG experience is so slim I'd
never be tempted to try that domain.<br>
</p>
<p>I'd like to believe that the myriad "stale skill" job
opportunities (demands) we see today are going to be
yet-more-fully deprecated. I still have a coal-fired forge
and an anvil, both probably manufactured 100 years ago, that I
can shape and even temper iron and steel with (and aluminum if
I'm incredibly careful), but I do not and never will have the
skills required to do it well, and certainly not to replace
what modern industrial processes can achieve... barring a full
apocalypse, it is merely a quaint "hobby" that might afford me
the opportunity to turn out some rustic items others would
mistake for "art", or more often, repair the various related
tools I might *use*in my forge... though in most cases a
strap and some bolts or rivets makes more sense than trying to
re-weld a broken connecting rod, or lever.<br>
</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the discussion of how our "first programming
language" defines us, I believe that my earliest "programming"
experience was more "analysis" of the circuitry of pinball
(and vending) machines in my friend's father's workshop where
he repaired them, and there were always an array of pinball
machines in various states of repair, with all the guts open
for inspection while operating. Very much an analog/digital
hybrid system while the older vending machines were
essentially all "rod logic" (albeit simple). Later, at my
first employer (radio station) I learned the ins and outs of
automated infinite loop carousel "programming" which was a
hybrid of relay and mechanical (rod/gear/lever) logics. The
"programming" was really simplistic, involving inserting
"shorting pins" in matrices to define priorities and timing to
get the "right" mix of commercials, PSAs, and a diversity of
music played during any given period (usually a 4 hour
shift). I can't say how much it influenced my later
understanding of "computer programming" which I was being
introduced to simultaneously by our Driver's Ed teacher who
had somehow wrangled a PDP-x rack into a small room with a
teletype/paper-tape-punch. He didn't really have a clue, he
was learning BASIC along with us, following a simple set of
"sample programs" listed in what I think was the "owners
manual" for the machine.<br>
</p>
<p>Ramble,<br>
</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:919FE1EB-1F83-49FA-AC73-6EA8171D3C72@mackichan.com">
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<div style="white-space:normal;">
<p dir="auto">Does it include lessons on how to land the
plane?<br>
</p>
<p dir="auto">—Barry<br>
</p>
<p dir="auto">On 12 Aug 2020, at 21:53, Frank Wimberly
wrote:<br>
</p>
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<div>I just got an email from a flight training program
offering me a nine month<br>
</div>
<div> course to get a multi engine commercial license.
They don't read the Friam<br>
</div>
<div> listsrv, I hope. I'm too old in any case.<br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> ---<br>
</div>
<div> Frank C. Wimberly<br>
</div>
<div> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,<br>
</div>
<div> Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> 505 670-9918<br>
</div>
<div> Santa Fe, NM<br>
</div>
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