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<p>I also believe these markets are at risk from being "thin" and
"self-selecting"... the former for gambling addicts and the latter
for wonks and academics...</p>
<p>Our elections themselves are self-selecting for "those who give a
damn" (by some quality of a-damn).<br>
</p>
<p>I don't think these betting markets reflect "intent" but rather
"belief" in the "put your money where your mouth is". If I were
a betting man I might well bet for who I thought showed the most
promising odds while voting against my own winning. E.G. Jon's
imaginary bet on Kanye. <br>
</p>
<p>When my daughters were coming "of age" I told them (for the first
time) that I had parlayed the Savings Bonds my parents had put
aside for my college (which they didn't offer me until I was
*struggling* half-way through, but I still didn't cash) into a
still small but significant nut for *their college*. The Indian
Casinos were just opening up, and the betting age was still 18
(before they added liquor to the equation). I suggested that if
they wanted "an easy ride" in college they could take that stake
down and put it on "red or black" / "odd or even" on the roulette
table... if they won (just shy of 50/50 chance) then they'd have
a college experience closer to their friends who were being sent
off with a car and a credit card and all the bills routed to mom
and dad, and if they lost they'd have an experience closer to the
one I had (though my parent's savings bonds represent that they
*were* prepared to help me if/when needed). I then suggested
that if they didn't want to be burdened with my apparent
expectation of "going to college" they could put it down on "0"
with 37:1 odds and go forth into the world without advantage OR be
mini-trust-funders.<br>
</p>
<p>As you (Barry) point out, the "thinness" would seem to allow for
various forms of "gaming" this system. The Russian-bots in a
bidding war against the Chinese-bots deciding our election (by
persuading/dissuading *real* voters through these markets)?</p>
<p>Or maybe these are just different fiddles for us to play while we
burn our own culture to the ground with petty (and not so petty)
disagreements.</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 9/14/20 9:47 AM, Barry MacKichan
wrote:<br>
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cite="mid:3C070AEE-20A0-4659-B6D0-8325521A6868@mackichan.com">
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<p dir="auto">Is there any information on how thin these
‘markets’ are? I vaguely recall that at some time in the
past (2016?) some people were placing bets in order to
generate buzz for a candidate. And in advance, I:</p>
<ul>
<li>do not know how people could claim to know ‘intent’.</li>
<li>don’t recall who or in what election.</li>
<li>know any other details.</li>
</ul>
<p dir="auto">—Barry</p>
<p dir="auto">On 14 Sep 2020, at 11:22, Prof David West wrote:</p>
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<p dir="auto">An alternative to polling.<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics?referral=Fc2BQNxuElGSe_1o8kmCS2Nd7ZgqdRLk&affid=10737"
style="color:#777" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics?referral=Fc2BQNxuElGSe_1o8kmCS2Nd7ZgqdRLk&affid=10737</a><br>
<br>
<a href="https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/"
style="color:#777" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/</a><br>
<br>
davew<br>
<br>
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