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<p>“A cultural efflorescence or an apocalyptic collapse?”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>It is not clear to me these options need to be mutually
exclusive.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Marcus</p>
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<p>I agree heartily... there are many paths... in the very weak
ensemble study (10,000 scenarios) we did before Stockholm last
year, using the World2 SD model, we found a strong positive
correlation between a high per-capita GDP in the year 2100 and a
peak in human population sooner rather than later. Not terribly
surprising I suppose?<br>
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<p>Per Capita GDP is in no way a progressive measure of life,
liberty, or the pursuit of slap-happiness but the most obvious one
in World2 and the population peak (soon) could alternatively
represent a thoughtful and significantly pervasive global negative
population growth, or an apocalyptic collapse following a sharp
increase in population (or some other manner of overrun of
resources).</p>
<p>I'm sure buried in that 10,000 high-dimensional points, are some
trajectories where an efflorescence magically *precedes* an
apocalyptic collapse, but I'm guessing that the bulk are ordered
just the opposite.</p>
<p>And of course, from the point of view of the bulk of the
biosphere, a human collapse (all the way to zero population?)
might represent a "best case scenario" as many species *did* seem
to enjoy the quietude of human activity in April-May 2020.</p>
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