<div dir="ltr">Also here's a recent Sep 22 IEEE Spectrum with our friend Mikhail Pokopenko featured on ABM approaches later in the article<br><br>"Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard"<br><a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard">https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard</a><div><br></div><div><br clear="all"><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr">_______________________________________________________________________<br><a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com" target="_blank">Stephen.Guerin@Simtable.com</a><div>CEO, Simtable <a href="http://www.simtable.com/" target="_blank">http://www.simtable.com</a><br><div>1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505<div><div>office: (505)995-0206 <span style="font-size:12.8px">mobile: (505)577-5828</span></div><div><span style="font-size:12.8px">twitter: @simtable</span></div><div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><a href="http://zoom.com/j/5055775828" target="_blank">z</a><a href="http://oom.simtable.com" target="_blank">oom.simtable.com</a></span></div><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Oct 14, 2020 at 11:11 AM Steve Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>Tentative answer to my own question:</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512" target="_blank">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div>On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<p>Cody -</p>
<p>Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this
prediction today than I was back in April... though it is
interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least
saying) back then!</p>
<p>I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined
would result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong
example of gather/scatter with no significant
contact-tracing... the few attendees in my larger circle only
report: "I was there all week and there were no outbreaks while
I was there... see! I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!". I
think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as
well, though I think it is better than the post Spring
Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.</p>
<p>I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back
then to have even the most general idea of how significant the
differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be. I remember
when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities)
began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic)
infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might
actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd
immunity". Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems
somewhat ambiguous... <br>
</p>
<p>I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with
network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what
"herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting
valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of
interactions with others. It seems that by now, there must be
some studies/models that try to address that. Also the
implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually
characterizes such?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div>On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">I was just looking back for a previous
conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to
be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.
<div><br>
<div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">My post-apocalyptic
novel might include a study on this: What if the Blue
States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
battle in a few states like high-density, early onset
new york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones
avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also
reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their
mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but
moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come
out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can
imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state
border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to
restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on,
then later vice-versa?<br clear="all">
</blockquote>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">Cody Smith</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46
PM Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the
bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify
the code if you like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but
adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)... and is
parameterized with sliders.<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html" target="_blank">
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html</a></p>
<p>And the JS (warning,huge with lots of
device/browser-specific cruft):<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js" target="_blank">
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js</a></p>
<p>I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about
this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the
risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal
*without* establishing significant herd-immunity. This
author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future"
and makes a good point about staving off infection too
well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and
flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment,
increased health care capacity, and/or effective
vaccines.<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b" target="_blank">
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b</a></p>
<p>For better or worse, other countries are trying
different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have
different levels of health-care capacity and ability to
location-track and shut down mobility.</p>
<p>While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy
response of many Red States, this provides yet another
diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of
all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the
population IS one big fat analog computer for
calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is
naturally 42). <br>
</p>
<p> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the
spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states
like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that
people without symptoms could be infectious until 24
hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they
continue to mix, but might end up being a source of
virus resistant. <br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/" target="_blank">https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/</a></p>
<p><a href="https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY" target="_blank">https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on
this: What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast,
in spite of losing the battle in a few states like
high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and
reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for
overwhelming health-care) but also reduce
herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their
mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but
moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come
out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can
imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state
border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to
restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on,
then later vice-versa? Seems like the ongoing
extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty
social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue
States is at risk... though professional and even office
work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.<br>
</p>
<p>Mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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