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<p>Cody -</p>
<p>Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this
prediction today than I was back in April... though it is
interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least
saying) back then!</p>
<p>I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined
would result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example
of gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing... the few
attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week
and there were no outbreaks while I was there... see! I tole'ya
it was a Democrat Hoax!". I think the "return to college" is
maybe providing some mixing as well, though I think it is better
than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.</p>
<p>I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then
to have even the most general idea of how significant the
differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be. I remember
when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities)
began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic)
infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might
actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd
immunity". Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat
ambiguous... <br>
</p>
<p>I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with
network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what
"herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting
valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of
interactions with others. It seems that by now, there must be
some studies/models that try to address that. Also the
implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually
characterizes such?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAEddvG2ri+nh2w2n5Z34RPQAiU7PsGmjPLg15dxd84o=B3o+tA@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">I was just looking back for a previous conversation
about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate
prediction from Steve Smith.
<div><br>
<div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">My post-apocalyptic
novel might include a study on this: What if the Blue
States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new
york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones
avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also
reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their
mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but
moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out
the other side with better herd-immunity. I can imagine
fresh border-checks (remember when every state border
crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red
Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later
vice-versa?<br clear="all">
</blockquote>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div dir="ltr">Cody Smith</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
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<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM
Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the
bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify
the code if you like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but adds
H(ospitalization) and D(eath)... and is parameterized
with sliders.<br>
</p>
<p><a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html</a></p>
<p>And the JS (warning,huge with lots of
device/browser-specific cruft):<br>
</p>
<p><a
href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js</a></p>
<p>I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about
this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk
of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without*
establishing significant herd-immunity. This author
refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and
makes a good point about staving off infection too well
for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu"
season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased
health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.<br>
</p>
<p><a
href="https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b</a></p>
<p>For better or worse, other countries are trying different
mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different
levels of health-care capacity and ability to
location-track and shut down mobility.</p>
<p>While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy
response of many Red States, this provides yet another
diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of
all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the
population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating
the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42). <br>
</p>
<p> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break
youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia
with governers who say "we didn't know that people without
symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!"
represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to
mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.
<br>
</p>
<p><a
href="https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/</a></p>
<p><a
href="https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:
What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite
of losing the battle in a few states like high-density,
early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce deaths
(including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming
health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red
States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in
infection and death (but moderated by mostly being
less-dense states) but come out the other side with better
herd-immunity. I can imagine fresh border-checks
(remember when every state border crossing had a weigh
station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting
Blue States early on, then later vice-versa? Seems like
the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is
pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of
Blue States is at risk... though professional and even
office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.<br>
</p>
<p>Mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
</div>
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