<div dir="ltr">I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.<div><br><div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?<br clear="all"></blockquote><div> </div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr">Cody Smith</div></div></div><br></div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for
the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you
like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and
D(eath)... and is parameterized with sliders.<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html" target="_blank">
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html</a></p>
<p>And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific
cruft):<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js" target="_blank">
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js</a></p>
<p>I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this
beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick
mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing
significant herd-immunity. This author refers to it as "hiding
infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off
infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold
and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment,
increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.<br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b" target="_blank">
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b</a></p>
<p>For better or worse, other countries are trying different
mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of
health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down
mobility.</p>
<p>While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of
many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble
study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the
territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog
computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is
naturally 42). <br>
</p>
<p> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth,
the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers
who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be
infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure
if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus
resistant. <br>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/" target="_blank">https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/</a></p>
<p><a href="https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY" target="_blank">https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What
if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new
jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for
overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. And the
Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection
and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but
come out the other side with better herd-immunity. I can imagine
fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had
a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting
Blue States early on, then later vice-versa? Seems like the
ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty
social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is
at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally
quite easily social-disanced.<br>
</p>
<p>Mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
</div>
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