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<p>EricC, et al-</p>
<p>I really appreciate your elaborate analysis of this (general)
phenomenon. I suspect this last year, the myriad governmental
(and NGO) responses around the world will provide a *wealth* of
data for Forensic Epidmiologists. <br>
</p>
<p>Not picking on DaveW particularly, I found it incredibly specious
this year every time someone (probably including myself) made an
ad-hoc comparison between an apple, a pear, and an orangatan and
tried to draw some specific conclusion from it. It always felt
like clutching for confirmation bias, maybe most painfully when I
caught myself doing it.</p>
<p>Like your own perspective on Sweden's response, I *wanted* to
believe that a lightly populated, very socially coherent, somewhat
geographically isolated could modulate R0 through distributed,
personal decision-making with top-down/centralized "advice" and
"reporting". So I cherry picked from samples and perspectives
that *appeared to be working* while the naysayers were gleefully
doing the same thing in an opposite sense. I *want* (still) to
believe that <br>
</p>
<p>I would claim the same for RedState BlueState players in the very
same game. I *wanted* to believe that Sturgis was the stupidest
thing anyone could do (from a public-health perspective) and that
the whole state of South Dakota (and near environs) would collapse
into a Zombie Apocalypse within a few weeks, and then as any
strong-positive correlations came up, I jumped up and down and
shouted "See, See, See!" (in my own head while shaking my tiny
fist at my Large and Tiny Screens). Same for a million other
examples (various COVID-denying/downplaying/overplaying examples
with various positive/negative feedback samples).</p>
<p>NickT -</p>
<p>I appreciate your calling this out as "why do you *want* to
believe X?". I can't remember what the questionaire was that
some of us took to yield this SnarkChart, but I think there is a
correlation. I actually think this is the wrong basis space
(axes) but the Authoritarian/Anarchist axis seems relevant. I
don't know what Left/Right imply here (Collective vs Individual
Good?).<br>
</p>
<p align="center"><img
src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iZhLRPaUWig/X4U96Up4lXI/AAAAAAAAAiM/mp1b7W6ydXAtlen6o9YFq1zcUX648mvzgCLcBGAsYHQ/w494-h640/Page_2.jpg"
alt="" width="494" height="639"></p>
<p> <br>
</p>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 4/7/21 8:24 AM, Eric Charles wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAEYGzMBczuV2w3rhVV5K9DNDqkiPf38zJL_MWAovro3W3-+Dag@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">We will be at least a few years
post-mass-vaccination before we will be able to really get a
handle on what worked and what didn't. As long as there are
more waves yet to come, we cannot possibly draw firm
conclusions about which strategies worked and which didn't. </div>
<div dir="ltr"><br>
</div>
<div dir="ltr">However, tentative evaluations still have value.
In that veign, a decent New Yorker article just dropped
looking at Sweden's response: <a
href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment </a></div>
<div dir="ltr"><br>
</div>
<div>One thing that stands out to me in the beginning of the
New Yorker article is Sweden's early rhetoric arguing that any
measures they take be based on <i><u>evidence</u></i>. To the
extent that really played into their response, that is a <i>terrible
</i>strategy if you find yourself in the midst of a pandemic.
This seems like a solid William James Will-To-Believe issue;
the choice of how to respond was live, unavoidable, and
momentous. Doing nothing wasn't neutrally "waiting for
evidence", it was taking a clear side, and to pretend
otherwise couldn't be anything other than disingenuous
political rhetoric. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I have consistently been a fan of Sweden's response as
a-viable-hypothesis-to-test. It WAS reasonable to hypothesize
that a race to mass immunity would - over the long haul -
result in a better outcome for the nation. And, as covered
well towards the end of the New Yorker piece, it is not clear
Sweden screwed up (compared with <i>averages </i>of
countries that chose various stricter lockdowns). If you had
pressed the pause button at certain points over the last year,
it seemed like Sweden was horribly wrong (e.g., mid-April). If
you had pressed the pause button at other points, it seemed
like Sweden had achieved its goal (mid-July to mid-October
averaged only 2 or 3 deaths per day). Until things run their
course, and we have<i> a lot</i> of time to look at the data,
we won't know for sure. And also, even then, we need to
remember that
when-a-vaccine-would-arrive-and-how-good-it-would-be was an
unknown, which made any decision to bank on a quick vaccine a
big gamble. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 11:55
PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Hi, Dave, <br>
<br>
Am I allowed to answer the same email twice? Well, I guess
we'll see. <br>
<br>
I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and
Connecticut. Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was
next to two of the early hot spots. North Dakota is 17th in
size, and 49th in density and was late to the party. ND is
first in total cases per population, CT is 24th. You're
trolling me, right? Omigosh. I've been pranked. <br>
<br>
Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why
you WANT to believe that public health measures don't work.
<br>
<br>
Nick <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Nick Thompson<br>
<a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br>
<a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br>
<br>
-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
On Behalf Of J Dalessandro<br>
Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM<br>
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns<br>
<br>
Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much
different. Lock down and serious penalties greatly reduced
community transmitted cases. Early intervention and
penalties was key.<br>
<br>
//Joe<br>
<br>
<br>
---<br>
<a href="mailto:j03d@photonmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">j03d@photonmail.com</a><br>
<br>
<br>
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐<br>
On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West <<a
href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">profwest@fastmail.fm</a>> wrote:<br>
<br>
> the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock
downs had no effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and
Connecticut (small states) had very similar outcomes despite
widely variant degree of lock down. So too Florida and
California, the latter draconian while the former
laissez-faire.<br>
><br>
> Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such
studies apply.<br>
><br>
> I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an
honest cost-benefit study?<br>
><br>
> davew<br>
><br>
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