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<p class="MsoNormal">There was Redfield’s claim on CNN that the U.S. got hit hard because Americans are fat (as well as stupid). That actually has the ring of truth.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Prof David West<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, April 7, 2021 11:13 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> friam@redfish.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Nick,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">First and and with strong emphasis: I do
<b><u>NOT</u></b> "want to believe that public health measures don't work." Never said so, never implied so.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">The public health measures, and in particular the lock downs, taken in response to COVID were guesswork — informed guesses perhaps, but still guesses. The rhetoric to the contrary —
<i>"we will do what the science tells us"</i> — were nonsense if the utterers actually believed what they were saying, and intentional —
<i>"for your own good"</i> — falsehoods if not.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Which brings us to the "fear" issue you raised. The only way, so the politicians seem to believe, to mobilize the masses to do something that they would not normally want to do is to terrorize
them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">I am completely skeptical that any "scientific" public health measures will result from this pandemic. Too much political CYA, too little real data for real scientists to work with, too many
variables.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Perhaps, my personal actions are the foundation for your assertion about my public health beliefs. I did the best job I could to determine my personal risk in my personal context and based my
actions accordingly. I took into account what the "experts had to say," but critically and with, what counts for me, some common sense.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">I was not trolling or pranking you; merely repeating a study reported in the mainstream media. Glen suggested that the authors of that study were biased to the conclusions because they had argued
against lock downs before. May be true, I don't know. Whether they "controlled" for the variables you noted and whether or not what they had to say was accurate at a particular point in time but not later. Don't know.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Why did you pick CN and ND and ignore CA and FL?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">davew<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">[BTW: If you are 49th in population density, why do you need hard lock downs? it would seem that social distancing is a given in some very real sense. Maybe all those bikers at Sturgis went home
via ND and dropped the virus off on the way and that is why they were late to the party.]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">On Tue, Apr 6, 2021, at 9:48 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2%40gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Hi, Dave, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Am I allowed to answer the same email twice? Well, I guess we'll see. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Connecticut. Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to two <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> of the early hot spots. North Dakota is 17th in size, and 49th in <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> density and was late to the party. ND is first in total cases per <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> population, CT is 24th. You're trolling me, right? Omigosh. I've <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> been pranked. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT to <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> believe that public health measures don't work. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Nick <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Nick Thompson<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2%40gmail.com">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> -----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces%40redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam%40redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different. Lock down <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> and serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted cases. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Early intervention and penalties was key.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> //Joe<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ---<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <a href="mailto:j03d%40photonmail.com">j03d@photonmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> </span><span style="font-family:"Cambria Math",serif">‐‐‐‐‐‐‐</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> Original Message
</span><span style="font-family:"Cambria Math",serif">‐‐‐‐‐‐‐</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <<a href="mailto:profwest%40fastmail.fm">profwest@fastmail.fm</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had very similar outcomes despite widely variant
degree of lock down. So too Florida and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit study?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > davew<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> > archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a> un/subscribe <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">> archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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