<div dir="ltr">Nick,<br><br>I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?<br><br>It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his <a href="https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/">https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/</a> :<br>"
<span style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Libre Franklin",sans-serif;font-size:1.28em">The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially </span><span style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-weight:700;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Libre Franklin",sans-serif;font-size:1.28em">infinite reach</span><span style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Libre Franklin",sans-serif;font-size:1.28em">: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.</span> "<br><br>Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div class="gmail-m_3974370929671828594WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal">Pieter,<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">That just HAS to be wrong. What am I missing, here? NOT a rhetorical question. <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">N<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Nick Thompson<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt solid rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Pieter Steenekamp<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum<u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal">Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980<br><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager</a><br>But of course, it's different this time around<u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif">Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem. We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford. I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example. My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Merle, and all, <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">A naïve question: Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem? For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) . Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate. I assume hundreds of percents, right? <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">N<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Nick Thompson<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><div style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt solid rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Merle Lefkoff<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum<u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif">Almost, but not quite, Jochen. He doesn't know about embodied energy. A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh. Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic. We are racing toward our doom.</span><u></u><u></u></p></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" target="_blank">jofr@cas-group.net</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin:5pt 0in 5pt 4.8pt"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with <span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:black;background:white">Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "</span>The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry<span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:black;background:white"> </span><u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything" target="_blank">https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything</a><u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">-J.<u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><u></u><u></u></p></blockquote></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all"><u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal">-- <u></u><u></u></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">twitter: @merle110<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><u></u><u></u></p></blockquote></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all"><u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal">-- <u></u><u></u></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">twitter: @merle110<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><u></u><u></u></p></blockquote></div></div></div>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>
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