<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p>I'm not sure I did much better in finding (with trivial effort)
relevant data but:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033027/fertility-rate-us-1800-2020/">https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033027/fertility-rate-us-1800-2020/</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>provide some framing. It seems in the present/industrial
societies, the correlation is inverse <br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p><i><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family:
sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">"Development
is the best<span> </span></span></i><i><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contraceptive"
class="mw-redirect" title="Contraceptive"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173);
background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;
font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">contraceptive</a></i><i><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">." - </span></i><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">Karan Singh</span><i><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;"><br>
</span></i></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">I was shocked that our (USA) Rnaught
had dropped to 2.06 in 1940. My father was 1 of 2 but my mother
was 1 of 5 (all born in the 20s). I was skooled by my betters
in the equal rights movement that it was not until oral
contraception (circa 1960) that fertility/reproduction rates
dropped. The chart above suggests (acutely) otherwise. I'm
assuming my grandparents must have relied on (male) barrier
methods *or* they had just enough Calvinist in them (which they
did by my 60's ideals) to rely on abstinence?</span></p>
<p>In all cases, I think the number of generations implied even by
the last 2000 years might not be enough to obtain significant
change? Or is speciation more of a punctuated equilibrium event
with abrupt environmental changes (including migration to new
landscapes) are what drive rapid change by selection? Or
gradualism? Or both:</p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://necsi.edu/gradualism-and-punctuated-equilibrium">https://necsi.edu/gradualism-and-punctuated-equilibrium</a></p>
<p>- Steve<br>
<span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"></span><i><span style="color: rgb(32,
33, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);
text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"></span></i></p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 4/24/21 3:10 PM, Pieter Steenekamp
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKzBMYF3dVubAqQh99n=NyymYt77oTRW-vm97Nup5Ddxw@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr"><i>"
Why would a poor man sire significantly fewer children than a
rich man? "<br>
</i><br>
Good question, maybe my assumption is wrong? <br>
<br>
It's not so much about the siring of the children as about the
successful raising of many children in the past. <br>
My assumption is based on the fact that food was scarce and
relatively expensive. Poor families' children
were malnutritioned and died more easily from many types of
illnesses. I'd love to find numbers to see if this is true or
false. I did a quick google search and found nothing.<br>
<br>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, 24 Apr 2021 at 21:43,
Steve Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p><br>
</p>
<div>On 4/24/21 12:37 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Up to maybe hundred years ago, a rich man
could sire and raise ten children or more and many poor
men none or at the most a few.<br>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>Why would a poor man sire significantly fewer children
than a rich man? Polygamy might have tipped the balance
of available mates in favor of the rich and powerful, but
otherwise war and other violence was tipping the balance
toward every man having an opportunity to mate (assuming
significant levels of monogamy). Nutrition and health
care (and stressors) might reduce the number of children a
woman could (live) birth and raise to reproductive age,
but I don't think the bias is less than 2:1 on average?</p>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr"> The key point is that genetic differences
influenced the number of descendants a person had with
the result that the conditions were there for natural
selection and undoubtedly human beings evolved. <br>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>Does this mean you believe that wealth was a direct
correlation to some genetic feature? Within strict class
and even more acutely, blue-blood nobility/caste
reproductive contexts, there is *some* correlation, but I
think the unrecognized effects of over-inbreeding did more
harm than good?</p>
<p>I am willing to believe that high aggression may still
have been selected for reproductively up into the
industrial age, but I think that got sublimated into
wealth and power collection more than reproductive
fecundity (though I grant up to 2:1 advantage *through*
acquired wealth). e.g <a
href="http://malyarchuk-bor.narod.ru/olderfiles/1/RJG_3_07.pdf"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">Genghis hisself</a><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Today however, genetic differences between
people have very small influence on the number of their
descendants so the conditions are very weak for
natural selection. I conjure that if natural selection
is happening today it is very small, maybe negligible? <br>
But if you look beyond natural selection and include
gene editing, humans can of course evolve. I would be
very surprised if there are not already some filthy rich
people doing it in secret. <br>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>With the ?8.6B? people on this planet, I suspect "if we
can, someone is/has/will". The previously linked article
on Texas Ranchers cloning prize Bucks suggests to me that
up to the practical challenges imposed by broad ethical
concerns that human cloning has to be (nearly) as easy.
<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a
href="https://www.deerassociation.com/action-alert-texas-captive-deer-cloning-h-b-1781/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.deerassociation.com/action-alert-texas-captive-deer-cloning-h-b-1781/</a></p>
<p><a
href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Deer-Clone-4542735.php"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Deer-Clone-4542735.php</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>and we DO have the <a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ra%C3%ABlism"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:rgb(32,33,34);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">Raëlians</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.clonaid.com/" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Clonaid.</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p><a
href="https://www.statnews.com/2016/07/05/dolly-cloning-sheep-anniversary/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.statnews.com/2016/07/05/dolly-cloning-sheep-anniversary/</a></p>
<p><a
href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/human-reproductive-cloning-curious-incident-of-the-dog-in-the-night-time/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/human-reproductive-cloning-curious-incident-of-the-dog-in-the-night-time/</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>my kids are too much like me already, we can barely get
along as it is!<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, 24 Apr 2021 at
20:32, Steve Smith <<a
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>DaveW -</p>
<p>I think the eugenics movement(s) of the last
century as well as the many clan structures in
indigenous peoples and royal bloodlines throughout
history have been structured with the aspiration
of either inducing genetic drift in a desired
direction, or (in the case of clan structures and
incest taboos) perhaps mute it's worst outcomes.</p>
<p>The divergence of Neandertalis/Devonisis/Sapiens
presumed to have happened hundreds of thousands of
years ago and the reconvergence/subsumption
roughly 40,000 years ago seem to represent the
most *significant* evolution we know of among
"modern" humans... The time-scales I consider
in your questoin are on the order of hundreds of
years, not tens or hundreds of thousands. That
alone suggests to me that we will not see anything
we can measure as "evolution". The divergence of
traits we identify as "race" seem to have happened
over tens of thousands of years as well. From
our experience with domestic animal breeding, we
probably have (refer to Eugenics literature) some
sense of how many generations it would take us to
"breed in" or "breed out" various traits. <br>
</p>
<p><img
src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Homo_lineage_2017update.svg/320px-Homo_lineage_2017update.svg.png"
moz-do-not-send="true"></p>
<p>As Marcus and other technophile/posthumanist
proponents have indicated, it seems that germline
modification (e.g. CRISPR) is likely to become
acutely more significant (for the first world?)
than any natural "drift", much less evolution by
natural selection.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>And then all the ways we might entirely
stunt/block evolution:</p>
<p> <a
href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-rancher-cloned-deer-lawmakers-want-legalize_n_607ef3e0e4b03c18bc29fdd2"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-rancher-cloned-deer-lawmakers-want-legalize_n_607ef3e0e4b03c18bc29fdd2</a></p>
<p>Who knew we had come this far from <a
href="https://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">Dolly</a>?</p>
<p>Can species NOT involved in deliberate breeding
programs (e.g. wild things) evolve quickly enough
to stay ahead of the anthropogenic changes
afoot? I think the simple answer is "hell yes!"
but the more interesting relevant answer is sadly
more like "barely" or "probably not hardly" if we
are talking about our favorite or photogenic
species (large mammals, colorful birds, ... in
particular).</p>
<p>For better or worse, the large mammal strategies
including high mass/surface ratios also yield
longer dependency and reproductive lags, so while
the bacteria might achieve population doubling in
tens of minutes, Whales, Elephants, Polar Bears
and Humans have reproductive periods on the order
of decades. <br>
</p>
<p>I think the Big Green Lie thread is asking if
human *cultural* or *social* evolution can be
quick enough to avert the disasters we think (some
of us) we see looming on the near horizon. A
very specific (engineered?) pandemic might yield a
very acute selection pressure. <br>
</p>
<p>In the wild, maybe in the niche areas where
conditions are going out of human survival range
(e.g. dewpoint too high for human sweat-cooling to
maintain a temperature below the threshold for
breakdown of enzymes (and other metabolic
macromolecules) will uncover/select-out those with
metabolisms more able to skirt that hairy edge...
but how many generations of that kind of selection
(without significant mixing with other
populations) would be required to see a coherent
gene pool reflecting that survival trait? And
with modern knowledge/travel/technology, the
chances of humans staying put and enduring those
conditions and NOT creating/importing some form of
mechanical/chemical refrigeration (or just moving
into pit-houses coupled to the much lower
temperature earth?)</p>
<p>I'm definitely not going to depend on it!</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
On 4/24/21 10:50 AM, <a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, it’s obviously
both/and with trade-offs between. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Please see attached. It’s
short. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick Thompson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div
style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt
solid rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Merle Lefkoff<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, April 23, 2021 9:21 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group <a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] semi-idle
question</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif">Dave,
I found this in Wikipedia: "</span><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(32,33,34)">The
social brain hypothesis was proposed
by British anthropologist </span><span
style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif"><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Dunbar" title="Robin Dunbar"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(6,69,173);text-decoration:none">Robin
Dunbar</span></a></span><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(32,33,34)">,
who argues that human intelligence did
not evolve primarily as a means to
solve ecological problems, but rather
as a means of surviving and
reproducing in large and complex
social groups."</span><span
style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif"></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif"> </span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(32,33,34)">That
might explain why we are now leading
our species off the cliff. </span><span
style="font-family:Verdana,sans-serif"></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at
7:12 AM Prof David West <<a
href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">profwest@fastmail.fm</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt
solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in
6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">Can human beings
evolve?<br>
<br>
Was reading about Pepper Moths in England
during the Industrial Revolution.
(population genetics)<br>
<br>
Population was white with dark spots and
the occasional dark colored moth was easy
prey.<br>
Pollution killed lichen and caused the
trees (moth's habitat) to be covered in
soot, turning them dark.<br>
Population of black moths went from 2% in
1848 to 95% by 1895.<br>
<br>
Is is possible for humans to evolve in
response to climate change in a similar
way? more general prevalence of melanin,
craving for spicy hot food?<br>
<br>
Of course moths used many generations to
achieve their change and their lifespan is
a fraction of a humans, so extinction is
more likely than adaptation. But, is it at
least possible in principle?<br>
<br>
davew<br>
<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
</p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">-- </p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Merle
Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>
Center for Emergent
Diplomacy<br>
<a
href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">emergentdiplomacy.org</a></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Santa Fe,
New Mexico, USA</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>
skype: merle.lelfkoff2</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">twitter:
@merle110</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
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