<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">Yeah, now there’s a guy that really needs to be institutionalized for anger management issues.<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Oh, wait….</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Eric</div><div class=""><br class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Aug 11, 2021, at 8:59 AM, Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" class="">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Eric writes:<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">< Look then at the distribution of multipliers in the table. For the “at least five times” column, the first six entries, alphabetically, are 75x, 17x, 47x, 68x, 22, 148x, 161x, and likewise for the “eight times” column. Ahh, if the American Public would only tolerate being shown a histogram giving the whole distribution at a glance…. Of course, if I were not lazy, I could find and download the data and make my own histogram. ><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Well, <harumphh> if it is only five times, then what is really the POINT? Let’s tell Rand Paul about these gross exaggerations ASAP!<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Thanks,<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Marcus<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top-color: rgb(225, 225, 225); padding: 3pt 0in 0in;" class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">From:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">On Behalf Of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>David Eric Smith<br class=""><b class="">Sent:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Tuesday, August 10, 2021 4:43 PM<br class=""><b class="">To:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">friam@redfish.com</a>><br class=""><b class="">Subject:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Re: [FRIAM] off-label technologies, exaptatiion and exponential technological growth.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I am sure it is just dieseling at this point, but I was pleased to see the following article:<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">(I usually get to these things late; y’all probably have read it already)<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">In reading the first table, on hospitalization and death fractions by vax/unvax, I was thinking “okay, now since we have vaccinated fractions by date, we could do a covariance plot, and of course could then do more involved multiple regressions on dummy variables as we could find them.” (No pun meant on “dummy variable”, though I am unable to miss it myself. Things like measures of hospital performance, coverage of masking rules or other public health measures, population density and gathering density, etc. Some of these to be proxies for fraction exposed, which is hard to get at.)<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">But then that is just where the article goes. It’s funny how a pair made of a careful writer and a lazy reader can be an unhelpful combination. The text leading to the second table says "people who were not fully vaccinated were hospitalized with Covid-19 at least five times more often than fully vaccinated people, according to the analysis, and they died at least eight times more often.” I remember the nice passage in John Paulos’s book “Innumeracy”, where (to make some point, which I now forget), he comments on why a sign over the highway “Entering New York, Population at least 6” is not particularly informative, though quite true.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Look then at the distribution of multipliers in the table. For the “at least five times” column, the first six entries, alphabetically, are 75x, 17x, 47x, 68x, 22, 148x, 161x, and likewise for the “eight times” column. Ahh, if the American Public would only tolerate being shown a histogram giving the whole distribution at a glance…. Of course, if I were not lazy, I could find and download the data and make my own histogram.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">But, credit to those authors. Within the bounds of what is permitted to them, this is a useful data digest.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Eric<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Aug 8, 2021, at 10:32 PM, Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Eric,<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Thanks very much for this! I was asked about it by some humanities friends in Pittsburgh who were alarmed. They thought I was qualified to evaluate her claims. You are more so. The benefits of Friam are clear.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Tangentially, I was recruited by an insurance company to be an actuary when I was a grad student in math based on my GRE scores. The salary promises made me curious enough to investigate. I was deeply into the theorems of measure theory, complex analysis, algebra, etc., which I liked and what I gleaned from a brief investigation of actuarial science didn't excite me. They urged me to visit them in Hartford anyway. I'm glad I didn't go.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Again, i appreciate the time you spent on this.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Frank<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p class=""> </o:p></p><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">---<br class="">Frank C. Wimberly<br class="">140 Calle Ojo Feliz,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br class="">Santa Fe, NM 87505<br class=""><br class="">505 670-9918<br class="">Santa Fe, NM<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Sun, Aug 8, 2021, 2:26 AM David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="border-style: none none none solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0in 0in 0in 6pt; margin-left: 4.8pt; margin-right: 0in;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Hi Frank,<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Only because Marcus responded….<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">This article<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fourfiniteworld.com%2f2021%2f08%2f05%2fcovid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped%2f&c=E,1,PFWQCC2T8jYI-mHBLyeBP_i-WNReHBWNoy9tKr28x0BcEWDm162UkTG3O4nzCkIL9Leag2ib0iZck0UQvN9v86sW4_0xLs4vmbNe9eBNe5HDPjmTZA,,&typo=1" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Isn’t a good start.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I didn’t read the whole thing, so I will confine my remarks to the title and second paragraph, relative to the reported data.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">74% of people in the P-town outbreak had been vaccinated. What does that tell us? Very nearly nothing. This is the like the textbook question given to any undergrad in statistics. (And remember: “She’s an actuary!” — be ready to take her word for things.)<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">There were, if I remember the number, 60k visitors to P-town. How many of them were vaccinated? Don’t have numbers on that. Suppose 99.67% of them were, for the sake of making a point. 800 cases (rounded out). 600 among the vaccinated. Suppose everyone in P-town was exposed (also not reported, I have no idea how many were). At that rate, the number of infections among the vaccinated would be 1%. Sounds well within the range of a vaccine that tests as 94% effective against infection. <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Suppose that only the state average of 64% were vaccinated and everyone was exposed. Then the fraction infected becomes 1.5%. Since P-town is a destination for the educated and rich, and known as a gay-friendly place so probably lefter than Mass as a whole, I would be very surprised if the vax fraction of the visitors were not above the state average. Not least because they were going to a party.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">How many were unvaccinated among the 60k? Again, not reported, presumably not something one is even allowed to ask about, and so probably impossible to know with precision and not easy to estimate. But again to make a point, suppose the number of unvaccinated was 200 ppl. Infections among the unvaxsed: 200. Wow! That would be 100% infectivity among the unvaccinated. <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Suppose the fraction actually vaxxed was 50/50 and everybody was exposed. Well, then, the vaccines were terrible; increased your chance of being infected by 50%. But of course that would require that the unvaxsed were also only catching delta at <2%, which is improbable. So presumably, if we knew the other numbers, we could guess at about what fraction of people actually had exposure.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">But then to use that, we need the correlation between degree of exposure and vaccination status, and who the hell knows even what the sign of that number would be?<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">MY POINT (sorry to be so ugly all the time): we can find any interpretation you like, from completely anodyne to totally absurd, from within feasible ranges of other variables on which we have little or no information. <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">How much drama does any of this warrant?<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Well, we were told that, what, 5 people landed in the hospital? Out of 60k visitors plus locals. Of whom 3 had preexisting problem conditions. No reports on whether the ones with problem conditions were vaxxed. Even in that tiny sample, we know nothing about correlation information that would change the direction of its implications qualitatively, from moving 1 or 2 people between categories.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">One final thing: those positive cases are outcomes of tests. I don’t recall seeing anything on how many were symptomatic. Could be all of them, but in many of these cohorts that use any contact tracing, it is fewer. That’s PCR in the nose or throat. <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">So really? Is the title “the vaccines don’t work as believed on the delta variant” warranted?<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Speaking in slightly fuller sentences, what did we “expect” from experience with vaccines up to now? The vaccines enable the learning phase of immunity to be done and stored, so that one may or may not have antibodies in any given quantity (variable across people and probably usually degrades with time; six month numbers being given a a guess at a time frame, with considerable imprecision), but one does have whatever genetic memory there is to activate antibody-producing cells quickly. That has been reported for about 1/2 year in dribs and drabs, and the variance in the results gives us an idea of roughly how much uncertainty we should have.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">So virus establishes a beachhead in the nose and throat, and rather than taking a week and a half to figure out an immune response, during which time it makes you much sicker, you knock it out (for most of those who do get sick) in a few days. All this seems to me well within the range of things that have been publicly reported.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Zaynap Tufecki had a nice piece in the NYT a few days ago, something like CDC should stop confusing the public. It sounds like a dramatic title, but the content is good and sensible, and I think she mentioned part of this as well. Let me look:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">The Crooked guys also did a nice interview with Ashish Jha from Brown, here:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddFBebSk-c" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddFBebSk-c</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">where, in addition to being asked interesting questions and given time to give coherent answers, he was able to relax a bit and talk as if from thought instead of from script.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">So it strikes me that, so far, we are getting small updates to how viral attacks and immunity are relating, and a little info on distributions. None of it seems very surprising, and the early estimates are still closer than we have any right to hope for, given a new disease in the period of rapid change. The fact that you can get high PCR titers in the nose of a vaccinated person is useful to know, perhaps not predicted per se, but not bizarre either.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">—<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I have thought, throughout the attention to these topics during the past year and a half, that we swim in viruses all the time. We catch a cold once every few years, and suppose that is because our exposure Is intermittent. But I’ll bet what is going on with the ambient virosphere looks much more like this business we are seeing with COVID than we would ever have guessed, with the important exception that we are all naive to COVID, and not to all the other stuff. I have wished there were time and manpower to use this unprecedented effort at measurement, to revamp our mental pictures and epidemiological models of how ambient viruses are moving around. It may be that a lot of this is already known, and I am just ignorant of it (that would be my first assumption), but I can’t imagine all this measurement doesn’t have _something_ of a general nature that we could learn from.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Eric<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Aug 8, 2021, at 6:16 AM, Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Gail Tverberg: does anyone have an opinion about her? Based on her career as an actuary she writes various blog posts and articles warning of imminent disasters related to Covid, oil prices, etc. When I search for commentaries about her I find almost nothing except items that she has written. She is associated with "Our Finite World".<o:p class=""></o:p></p><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">---<br class="">Frank C. Wimberly<br class="">140 Calle Ojo Feliz,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br class="">Santa Fe, NM 87505<br class=""><br class="">505 670-9918<br class="">Santa Fe, NM<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Sat, Aug 7, 2021, 1:28 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="border-style: none none none solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0in 0in 0in 6pt; margin-left: 4.8pt; margin-right: 0in;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">No need for victims when there are (pandemic) volunteers. <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">On Aug 7, 2021, at 11:43 AM, Steve Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></p></blockquote></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> Marcus -<br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">The pushback on everything from low wattage lighting to mask mandates leaves me thinking that there is really only one thing that motivates certain people: That they can do whatever the hell they want and, crucially, that other people cannot. A living wage infringes on that ranking and so must be terrible. What if there were physical space for everyone, food for everyone, and many optional ways to invest one’s time? What if one didn’t need a wage at all? What if you had to decide for yourself what was worth doing? Heck, what if one (some post-human) didn’t even need food and didn’t need to reproduce?<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></blockquote><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Sounds Utopian... erh... Dystopian... no... UTOPIAN! Uhm... I just hope posthumans collectively find the rest of us boring enough to leave alone and interesting enough to not need to extinct us. Homo Neanderthalenses had a long run (~.4My?) before Homo Sapiens Sapiens found our way into their territory and apparently ran over them with our aggressive adaptivity (over a period of tens of thousands of years). I suspect *some* trans/post humans will also have a somewhat more virulent (or at least very short time-constant) adaptivity indistinguishable (to us) from extermination-class aggression.<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I like the fairy tale Spike Jonze wove on this topic with<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Her_(film)" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">HER</a>, and in particular the virtual<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Watts" target="_blank" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">Alan Watts</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>conception. But I highly doubt we might be so lucky. More likely some version of "the Borg" or "Cylons" or "Replicators" or (passive aggressive) "Humanoids" (minus the gratuitous anthropomorphism). To us, it will probably look more like a "grey goo" scenario. Or perhaps more aptly hyperspectral rainbow-goo.<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">At the current rate of change/acceleration/jerk in technosocial change I may even live to see the whites of the eyes of the hypersonic train headlights I mistook for "light at the end of the tunnel".<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I'm going to go now to get my telescoping (drywall stilts) runner's legs fit in place of the organic ones I grew (and then abused/neglected) over the past 65 years. 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font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">archives:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class="">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div></body></html>