<div dir="auto">Simpson's example:  in a high school class females get higher grades in their classes but males get higher scores on the SAT.  For both genders SAT scores and grades are positively correlated but in the whole class they are negatively correlated.<br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 9:05 PM David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div style="word-wrap:break-word;line-break:after-white-space">Indeed, Roger, <div><br></div><div>Spirit of fun in the original already very clear.</div><div><br></div><div>Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of tautology, I do not understand.  Fortunately _that_ is not an important question.</div><div><br></div><div>Eric</div><div><br></div><div><br><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div>On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:</div><br><div><div dir="ltr">Eric -<div><br></div><div>No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point:  death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.</div><div><br></div><div>I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.</div><div><br></div><div>I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few days.</div><div><br></div><div>-- rec --</div><div><br></div><div>-- rec --</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80.  😐<br><br><br><br><br><div>---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div>May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?<div><br></div><div>Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one does with population-wide regressions.  I am in a situation where I can’t use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).  Complain complain complain.</div><div><br></div><div>Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of course, summary statistics. So:</div><div><br></div><div>You said:</div><div><br></div><div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div>Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!</div></div></blockquote></div><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div></div></div><div>How about:</div><div><br></div><div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div>Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!</div></div></blockquote></div><div><br></div><div>Eric</div><div><br><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div>On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:</div><br><div><div dir="ltr">The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today<div><br></div><div><a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/</a><br></div><div><br></div><div>The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated</a><br></div><div><br></div><div>Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!</div><div><br></div><div>Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.</div><div><br></div><div>-- rec --</div><div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except people that go way out of their way like Glen.<br>
<br>
-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith<br>
Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM<br>
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax<br>
<br>
This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other conditions.<br>
<br>
If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile  by category.<br>
<br>
Time, time, time, to chase things down….<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
> On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">gepropella@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:<br>
> <br>
> Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK <br>
> COVID-19 Data<br>
> <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co</a><br>
> m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_<br>
> LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n<br>
> GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1<br>
> <br>
> Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’<br>
> <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co</a><br>
> m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e<br>
> 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ<br>
> F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1<br>
> <br>
> They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But their source: <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1</a> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.<br>
> <br>
> Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: <br>
> <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars</a><br>
> -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201<br>
> <br>
> It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher than that among unvaxxed.<br>
> <br>
> The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be within error?<br>
> <br>
> --<br>
> ☤>$ uǝlƃ<br>
> <br>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>
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- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,UbqWDFsVxKWsLCst5qaFoKHBsQkNGn5kcIR0JJHCZ4JRWJvD2WdhS5AuRQQ4XUSOhUtExFQZuNVInAvP-_iaxdJkFNE24aEZEPtaK1mUXA,,&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,w-EqIn_ZNn9-26Q4yHRetL2lNbh91wH0BKI2YaaVBduUP7nWJ0zPpQ7BPVXEC6aXwtbZxx5IrPlIghnt5u2U9cTZdp3kgXIPjTGwCraw&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,w-EqIn_ZNn9-26Q4yHRetL2lNbh91wH0BKI2YaaVBduUP7nWJ0zPpQ7BPVXEC6aXwtbZxx5IrPlIghnt5u2U9cTZdp3kgXIPjTGwCraw&typo=1</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,vu1KvMoJoBKEg8Oz03u4RRIbFfTls7eBtSCyOWq15FSEJeEVMSr_NmB67amb3wgexA9iyGry_EPje0JS097nxVbyjJLBCGiC1KbG0gbilO8,&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,vu1KvMoJoBKEg8Oz03u4RRIbFfTls7eBtSCyOWq15FSEJeEVMSr_NmB67amb3wgexA9iyGry_EPje0JS097nxVbyjJLBCGiC1KbG0gbilO8,&typo=1</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div></blockquote></div><br></div></div>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,x034K837QuN-YmUjqusuq6Evqs-RKjiyLBYM1oWMENnCb7du8Nx8WyB9ib5v4Ud4BNtM7dAqcQCA1QnvGwkvoqn2C3ONShXAtSNOS0Z4WrSen4Ztoi8tM1E6Tg,,&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
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archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,8z_sLIuXiBiVOWOHFOMkDDOZL8eRbDK2mZ6K76mxUH4wPQxCluZEXtCZdXNcBsEvzfwqvNa9pzG14qw8hrYLJ1H--RZsLAh4QMA0Tx-5ij9PGJolgMEga7ZG&typo=1" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
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- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,qFMvvNL4Gf3uJSa76OFawnbut25_XZYtKPTKAfkVhU5Khg18froiiX5gTUamHmPaXh3UFiSz45LoWy7lkZX9Yfx23g_hAXBq21s8QUjNYO_4I9nQEEt7QLkcurSL&typo=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,qFMvvNL4Gf3uJSa76OFawnbut25_XZYtKPTKAfkVhU5Khg18froiiX5gTUamHmPaXh3UFiSz45LoWy7lkZX9Yfx23g_hAXBq21s8QUjNYO_4I9nQEEt7QLkcurSL&typo=1</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Zj0RZIkwK6F2t0eKCCBLlSVga9ld8QuUNqYlq6_Tr7aY49warToHoFoH5NjmMOb-OTA1JWqzOK0wlZlpqg3hqQ-FYSuOj93gocspI3aO29maOubrRbF2DYLa&typo=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Zj0RZIkwK6F2t0eKCCBLlSVga9ld8QuUNqYlq6_Tr7aY49warToHoFoH5NjmMOb-OTA1JWqzOK0wlZlpqg3hqQ-FYSuOj93gocspI3aO29maOubrRbF2DYLa&typo=1</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div></blockquote></div><br></div></div>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
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</blockquote></div>