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<p>EricS -</p>
<p>Thanks for the reference to Scheffer. I was not aware of any of
his work except his participation in Rockstrom, et al's 2009
Planetary Boundaries: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">Safe Operating
Space</a>.<br>
</p>
<p>I now have <br>
</p>
<p><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.13401">
Mutualistic Communities</a><br>
</p>
<p> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.13289">
Superorganisms</a><br>
</p>
<p>and his most recent</p>
<p> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/18/e2024397118.full.pdf">Resilience
of Pueblo Societies</a></p>
<p>on my pile!</p>
<p>- SteveS<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p> <br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scholar.google.nl/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=cXmbPusAAAAJ&sortby=pubdate&citation_for_view=cXmbPusAAAAJ:ujxm2eEBZHIC">https://scholar.google.nl/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=cXmbPusAAAAJ&sortby=pubdate&citation_for_view=cXmbPusAAAAJ:ujxm2eEBZHIC</a><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:6675A70C-CFFD-4BFF-B44B-858CA0DE566A@santafe.edu">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
Thanks Steve,
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">I hadn’t heard about this latest little bit of
lunacy. Marcus is right; what must the guy’s life be like that,
to very likely end up in jail for not really anything seemed
like a good idea?</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Martin Scheffer ought to be all over this, with his
“early warning signals”, using analysis of the
magnitude-frequency distributions of collective fluctuations to
predict “tipping points”. We hear about Rosa Parks. We don’t
(unless we work in the area) understand the long string of
events that preceded, and in important ways, led up to Rosa
Parks and made the event she precipitated possible.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Eric</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Aug 20, 2021, at 10:17 AM, Steve Smith <<a
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;
charset=UTF-8" class="">
<div class=""> EricS<br class="">
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:B59AD926-4F40-4257-B1CB-884A10D6B9D2@santafe.edu"
class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Fascist Quorum Sensing</div>
</blockquote>
<p class="">When 'Q' emerged in the right wing popular
attention, I did make a brief connection with "Quorum"
in the sense you reference it, though more
specifically as Bee Swarm/Nest trigger/choice.
Having once been a holder of a DOE 'Q' clearance, the
very idea that that level/style of clearance would
give him the kind of insider information attributed to
him/her/them was absurd. Some of the other
clearances, *maybe*, but not obviously the 'Q'.<br
class="">
</p>
<p class="">The news today with the lame-O-bomber
wannabe kicked off another round of
DHS/domestic-terror-watch warnings that another
"quorum" is trying to rise up. The (liberal) news
media is giving lip-service to not "amplifying" his
signal, etc.</p>
<p class="">Seems like something similar (but not
responsibly scientific) about how the Taliban was able
to flip the whole country almost overnight is afoot.
<br class="">
</p>
<p class="">- SteveS<br class="">
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:B59AD926-4F40-4257-B1CB-884A10D6B9D2@santafe.edu"
class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">(For those who don’t do this for a
living, the reference is to the phenomenon in
bacteria like Anthrax (B. anthracis), which will
multiply inside a victim for many generations with
no real chemical activity besides a normal parasitic
metabolism, but will secrete signaling chemicals.
When those chemicals hit a threshold concentration
because the population has multiplied enough, which
the bacteria all know because they all have the same
genome, they switch state, turn on the chemical
attack machinery, and dissolve the victim on a
timescale far too short for any inflammatory or
immune response to do much about them.)</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Google does not show anyone as having
used it yet, even though it is a no-brainer.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">The idea being to say something
productive about the abruptness of it all. </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">From Gingrich and Norquist up through
end-2020, the right thought its best strategy was to
do the usual dissembling and dogwhistling, just at
higher intensity. Something has switched and they
think this —specifically — is the time to make a run
for it and to parade the fascism instead. </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">While the strategic-games crowd (and
military people etc.) will say they have long
written about shifting modes, the idea that there
can be an unplanned component at the popular level
akin to quorum sensing might have something to be
said of it.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Even on the question of whether trump
mattered, I can see a sort of SFI angle on it, with
the idea of “slow timescale variables” that Jessica
Flack makes central to the rubric that for a while
(perhaps still) she was calling “construction
dynamics”. The idea that a sort of order-parameter
stuck thing can smooth out fluctuations and make an
inference problem easier and more stable, or a
transition in domains more likely. Here the fast
variables would have been the Lindsay Graham
characters, who flutter like day-traders among all
possible positions, trying to guess from minute to
minute what is safe. Those guys would not have put
Steven Miller’s face on TV, because they would have
judged that he was too ugly to use.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Enter trump, whose 2024 motto can be
“The Worse, The Better”, who said “I can make ugly
work.” But it didn’t change the system state in a
few months, or even in a year. The flutterers took
years of reassurance, and a couple of election
cycles, before they switched from the lysogenic to
the lytic phase. Without trump as a slow variable,
would the flutterers have continued to flutter a
while longer? Can one say anything about that that
has any scientific worth, and isn’t just firing off
buzzwords?</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Eric</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Aug 20, 2021, at 7:53 AM,
Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div class="WordSection1" style="page:
WordSection1; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);
font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;
font-style: normal; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing:
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<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">Eric writes:<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div class="">
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">“I have wondered whether trump
in the presidency was like an adjuvant
in a vaccine. Just having the antigen
leaves room for highly variable
responses, because if you don’t manage
the inflammatory response that initiates
the immune response, you have only a
weak control system. Trump was so awful
in so many dimensions that he triggers
inflammation in those who would have
remained asleep under Clinton.”<o:p
class=""></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="">
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">The mask protests like this
one..<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><a
href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/08/19/mask-wars-unrest-flores-pkg-dlt-vpx.cnn"
style="color: blue; text-decoration:
underline;" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/08/19/mask-wars-unrest-flores-pkg-dlt-vpx.cnn</a><o:p
class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">..strike me as something that
M. Night Shyamalan could not even
invent. Say the guy at 1:40.<o:p
class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">I should be thinking of these
folks as my fellow citizens? Really?<o:p
class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">Is it just me or is maybe the
“inflammation” getting a little out of
control? For example,<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">the other day I was driving
down a narrow part of the road in my
residential area and pulled off to the
side to let a car pass that was coming
the other way. He (white middle-aged
man) was not signaling, but as soon as I
spent five seconds off the side to let
him pass he started screaming at me and
waving his fist out the car window.
Apparently I had dared to block his
driveway. Is it really that hard for
some people to get through their day?<o:p
class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">It increasingly seems to me
that maybe there is just all this crazy
just below the surface, and all that can
be done is to keep the inflammation
down.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0in; font-size: 11pt;
font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"
class="">Marcus<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
</div>
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