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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Just so’s you know, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I took it from this email thread, where it pretty much stood alone. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>And remember. Y ou (we) aren’t just writing to one another. You (we) are writing to 300 other people. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>n<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nick Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Marcus Daniels<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, September 16, 2021 12:32 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Could this possibly be true?<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Trials are done in phases. First they have to establish that the treatment does no harm. That’s what this was about. Some anti-vax jerk probably dug up this reference and started quoting it out of context, like you are.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b><a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a><br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, September 16, 2021 9:28 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Could this possibly be true?<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>You guys keep proving my point about the 100<sup>th</sup> Meridian and irony.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Would any of you buy a seat belt that was marketed to not cause deaths? You are so lost in your point about small numbers that you’ve lost your sense of the plain meaning of words. Sheesh!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>n<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roger Critchlow<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, September 16, 2021 12:16 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Could this possibly be true?<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>sum(reasons_for_death) != number_of_deaths, and Death itself is listed as a reported cause of death.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>-- rec --<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Thu, Sep 16, 2021 at 12:01 PM Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>For what it's worth, from table S4 in the supplementary data <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/07/28/2021.07.28.21261159/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf" target="_blank">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/07/28/2021.07.28.21261159/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf</a><br><br>Reported Cause of Death BNT162b2 (N=21,926) Placebo (N=21,921) <br>Deaths 15 14 <br>Acute respiratory failure 0 1 <br>Aortic rupture 0 1 <br>Arteriosclerosis 2 0 <br>Biliary cancer metastatic 0 1 <br>COVID-19 0 2 <br>COVID-19 pneumonia 1 0 <br>Cardiac arrest 4 1 <br>Cardiac failure congestive 1 0 <br>Cardiorespiratory arrest 1 1 <br>Chronic obstructive pulmonary <br>disease 1 0 <br>Death 0 1 <br>Dementia 0 1 <br>Emphysematous cholecystitis 1 0 <br>Hemorrhagic stroke 0 1 <br>Hypertensive heart disease 1 0 <br>Lung cancer metastatic 1 0 <br>Metastases to liver 0 1 <br>Missing 0 1 <br>Multiple organ dysfunction <br>syndrome 0 2 <br>Myocardial infarction 0 2 <br>Overdose 0 1 <br>Pneumonia 0 2 <br>Sepsis 1 0 <br>Septic shock 1 0 <br>Shigella sepsis 1 0 <br>Unevaluable event 1 0<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Thu, 16 Sept 2021 at 17:37, Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal>Pittsburgh irony: Ooh. Yinz are rill tough. I'm skeered. Cf. Kasich, who is from McKees Rocks which is across the river from "dahntahn" Pittsburgh.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Yinz = "you ones" similar to "y'all" in the South.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 8:41 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p>Then we can say with a 99% probability that the vaccination does not increase the total (again all causes) death rate with more than a factor of 1.6.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Oh I am so glad. So reassuring*. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>You guys are scaring the total crap out of us citizens. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>N<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>PS to Frank. There’s lot’s of irony in Pittsburgh. I count on you to recognize it. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nick Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Pieter Steenekamp<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, September 16, 2021 7:34 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Could this possibly be true?<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Thank you Roger,<br><br>Using the numbers from Phizer's report, I did a sort of quick and dirty manual iteration process to get to the following Monte Carlo testing conclusion<br><br>If:<br>a) the total death rate of the unvaccinated is 14/22000 (all causes) and<br>b) a total of 15 out of 22000 (again all causes) of the vaccinated group died<br>Then we can say with a 99% probability that the vaccination does not increase the total (again all causes) death rate with more than a factor of 1.6.<br><br>My Python program to do this is as follows:<o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;line-height:14.25pt;background:#FFFFFE'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>import random<br>total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=0<br>r=1.6 # manually iterate this number until the answer is less than 100, with 1000 test runs for a probability of 99% <br>numberList = [0, 1] # 0 = live, 1=dead<br>for i in range(1000):<br> x=(random.choices(numberList, weights=((1-r*14/22000), r*14/22000), k=22000))<br> if( sum(x)<16):<br> total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16+1 <br>print(total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16)<br><br># iteration tally:<br># with r=1.5 then total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=105<br># with r=1.6 then total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=69 </span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><br>Pieter<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On Wed, 15 Sept 2021 at 22:26, Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" target="_blank">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Pieter -<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>The initial safety and efficacy report was published in the New England Journal of Medicine at the end of 2020, <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577" target="_blank">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577</a>, it has smoother language and inline graphics. It also has fewer deaths in the treatment group than in the control group, but it is only reporting the first two months of the study.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>The numbers of deaths reported in the "Adverse Reactions" section of these reports will eventually track the expected death rate of the population in the trial, and apparently they do, since there is no comment to indicate otherwise. Every clinical trial that tests the safety of a treatment is expected to agree with the baseline mortality statistics for the population in the trial.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>If you see 14 and 15 deaths out of 22000 participants and your immediate response is that 15 is bigger than 14, then you should probably stop torturing yourself with statistical data. You're making and agonizing over distinctions that the data can never support. The number of deaths in a population over a period of time has an average value and a variance which are found by looking at large populations over long periods of time. In any particular population and period of time there are a lot trajectories that the death count can take that will be consistent with the long term average even as they wander above and below the average.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I append a simple simulation in julia that you can think about.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>-- rec --<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># from <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm" target="_blank">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm</a><br>death_rate = 869.7 # raw deaths per 100000 per year</span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># simulate the action of a 'death rate' on a population of 'sample' individuals for 'days' of time.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># convert the raw death rate to the death_rate_per_individual_per_day, ie death_rate/100000/365.25,</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># allocate an array of size sample*days, size coerced to an integer value,</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># fill the array with uniform random numbers.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># if an array value is less than the death rate per person per day, score 1 death.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># this overcounts because individuals can be scored as dying more than once, YODO!</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>simulate(death_rate, sample, days) =<br> sum(rand(Int(sample*days)) .< death_rate/100000/365.25)</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># accumulate an ensemble of death rate simulation results.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># run 'trials' simulations of 'death_rate' for 'sample' individuals for 'days' time.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># accumulate an array with the number of deaths in each simulation</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>accumulate(death_rate, sample, days, trials) =<br> [simulate(death_rate, sample, days) for i in 1:trials]</span><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># check the model: run the simulation with death_rate for 100000 individuals and 365.25 days,</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># the result averaged over multiple simulations should tend to the original death_rate.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># we report the mean and standard error of the accumulated death counts</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(death_rate, 100000, 365.25, 50))<br>(868.34, 31.64188002361066)</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># That's in the ball park</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># Now what are the expected deaths per 22000 over 180 days</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(death_rate, 22000, 180, 50))<br>(94.3, 10.272312697891614)</span><br><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><br># that's nowhere close to the 14 and 15 found in the report. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># Probably the trial population was chosen to be young and healthy, </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># so they have a lower death rate than the general population.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># let's use 14.5 deaths per 22000 per 180 days as an estimated trial population death rate</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># but convert the value to per_100000_per_year.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>julia> est_death_rate = 14.5/22000*100000/180*365.25<br>133.74053030303028</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># check the model:</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 50))<br>(14.96, 3.6419326558007294)</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># in the ball park again. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># So the point of this simulation isn't the exact result, it's the pairs of results that this process can generate</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># let's stack up two sets of simulations, call the top one 'treatment' and the bottom one 'control'</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># treatment and control are being generated by the exact same model, </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># but their mutual relation is bouncing all over the place. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'># That treatment>control or vice versa is just luck of the draw</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>julia> [accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 20), accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 20) ]</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2-element Vector{Vector{Int64}}:<br> [12, 12, 13, 11, 22, 13, 14, 16, 13, 14, 21, 17, 13, 14, 19, 11, 20, 11, 9, 19]<br> [11, 14, 15, 17, 11, 19, 17, 12, 16, 14, 18, 16, 11, 16, 12, 16, 10, 14, 17, 13]</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On Wed, Sep 15, 2021 at 2:25 AM Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>In the Phizer report "Six Month Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine" (<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf" target="_blank">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf</a>) , I picked up the following:<br><br>"During the blinded, controlled period, 15 BNT162b2 and 14 placebo recipients died" <br><br>Does this mean the Phizer vaccine did not result in fewer total deaths in the vaccinated group compared to the placebo unvaccinated group?<br><br>I sort of can't believe this, I obviously miss something.<br><br>But of course, there are clear benefits in that the reported vaccine efficacy was 91.3%<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group 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