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<p><br>
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<p>I retook the test back-to-back and was a little surprised by the
results: <br>
</p>
<ol>
<li>I did increase my high confidence correct answers marginally
(unsurprising)<br>
</li>
<ol>
<li>This means I still got a few dead wrong.<br>
</li>
</ol>
<li>I did lower my overall confidence.</li>
<ol>
<li>no-brainer after seeing how overconfident I was first time
around<br>
</li>
</ol>
<li>I lowered my overall correct answers (this is the surprise).</li>
<ol>
<li>not sure what this is about, trying too hard to "flip" my
guesses and getting them wrong?</li>
<li>both times, I got 100% of my 50% confidence answers correct
(3 or 4 of them?)</li>
</ol>
</ol>
<p>I would have probably been more better at improving my results if
I'd paid more attention the first time to how I answered the
low-confidence questions... even though I was "guessing" I quoted
a higher-than-50% confidence.. Sounds dumb huh?<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:0b57cd3c-4fa5-c37f-f8d3-2235f9c009ea@swcp.com">
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:ad8651df-5d8b-7ca5-ebe8-cfcb5b7d17c5@gmail.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Do you know what you know?
A Confidence Calibration Exercise
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://confidence.success-equation.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://confidence.success-equation.com/</a></pre>
</blockquote>
<p>I share Glen's interest in retaking such a test under different
personal contexts. I found some of the questions seemingly a
little disingenous and was surprised by the modest number that
were easy to answer with high confidence. A randomly selected
set from a larger group might give me a slightly different mix
of these.<br>
</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly (to me if not everyone), my Percent Correct was
lower than Glen's while my Confidence was higher.</p>
<p>The only thing I feel a little proud of was that most of my
high confidence answers were in fact correct. <br>
</p>
<p>I think I might have gotten better scores if I'd followed an
intuition that the questions were worded to yield an equal
distribution of true/false questions... I definitely allowed my
own optimistic nature to bias toward answering "yes" rather than
"no" when I had low confidence. A second pass through the
questions with that in mind would probably have had me flipping
some of my low-confidence "true"s to low confidence "false"s.
Maybe this is an incorrect assumption about the design of the
test.</p>
<p>I may take it again to see if that improves my hit rate... I
think my performance *would* be skewed by having seen the
evaluation... knowing that a few of my high confidence answers
were *wrong* will surely yield a few more "hedged bets"
there... if I study the results with an eye to improving my
scores, I can probably recognize a few other systematic areas
for improvement.<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:ad8651df-5d8b-7ca5-ebe8-cfcb5b7d17c5@gmail.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">"After answering each of the true/false questions below, indicate how confident you are in your answer using the corresponding slider. A value of 50% means you have no idea what the right answer is (the same probability as a random guess between the two choices); a value of 100% means you are completely confident in your answer."
It seems to present the same questions each time, which is a shame. I'd love to try it fully alert. But my attempt at 4am, with an irritating headache, turned out this way:
Mean confidence: 61.60%
Actual percent correct: 78.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 63.59%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 54.55%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
39 correct out of 50 questions answered (78.00%)
27 correct out of 38 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (71.05%)
5 correct out of 5 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (100.00%)
7 correct out of 7 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)
</pre>
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