<div dir="ltr">Steve,<div>Players in the top stakes tend to pay for their seats by the hour. At the stakes I (and, I presume, Dave) play at, the house rakes the hands - at a variable rate, usually with a cap of something like $5 per pot, and maybe a few more bucks into a jackpot/promotion pool. At the lowest stake that rake is significant, and should noticeably impact how you play. But at middle or upper stakes, it doesn't affect much. </div><div><br></div><div>Dealers make most of their money off of tips. Standard tips in the games I play is $1 a hand, and if it's a very big pot some players will tip $5 or more. A good dealer can average 20-30 hands an hour. At the bigger games, where there aren't small chips on the table, it wouldn't be unusual for all the players to just give the dealers a set amount when they start at the table. (This is cash games. Poker tournaments would be a whole different discussion.) </div><div><br></div><div> Professional players (and serious amateurs) simply think about having an edge that - after you account for the variance - produces an hourly rate. This is usually expressed in terms of big blinds per hour (or big blinds per 100 hands, if you are an online player). 5 big blinds an hour is a good edge in live play, and it can go up from here. More than 10 would be extremely dominant. So, if you are a good player at the $2/$5 ante level, you can probably make $25-40 an hour (i.e., you have a 5-8 bb per hour edge).  </div><div><br></div><div>Because the house and the dealers and the players make money as long as the game continues, this is the one game in the casino where the house and the regular players are on the same team. Everyone just wants as many games as possible to keep going forever. 

</div><div><br></div><div>

Exploitative play, and gaming your opponents can be very important, especially at lower levels. But if you vary too far from a fundamentally sound strategy to do that, and the table has 2 or 3 reasonable players, then while you are focused on maximizing profit from the drunk fish, the more fundamentally sound players will eventually get your money.

If you are at a Casino where it is easy to go from the table games and slots to the poker table, there can be a steady stream of bad players, but most poker rooms these days are off to the side where they are harder to stumble into, and if it is a full table (8-10 players), then you'll probably need to respect the play of at least 2 or 3 of them.</div><div><br></div><div>Casual players (drunk or otherwise) don't have any idea how to balance a range. Balance, in this context, refers to having the right ratio of bet-for-value hands to bluff hands. For example, if we are pre-flop, and there is a raise, and then another raise (called a 3-bet), and then another raise (4-bet), with almost any player at lower stakes you can be certain that the final raiser has a pair of queens or better (QQ, AK, KK, AA is under 3% of hands). So unless you have aces or kings, it should be an easy fold. With some players you can put them on exactly a pair of aces - they would have called or folded with anything literally else! --- A solid GTO player should be 4 betting something like 6-8% of the time, so that rate would suggest a solid player. --- If you have someone who's 4 betting 20% of the time, then they are WAY out of line, and should be easy to exploit (call or raise all, depending on how you expect them to respond, with a linear range of something like Jacks or better, which is about 6% of hands). 20% x 6% suggests you have a big pre-flop confrontation with the aggressor in just over 1% of hands. </div><div><br></div><div>The intuition and social-emotional game can affect the stuff above, because it affects the % of times your opponent makes certain moves in certain situations. Unless you have gotten someone acting crazy though, it shouldn't really affect how you play except in edge cases. If you have a hand that should mix calling vs. folding, and you are against a player who over-bluffs (statistically speaking), then you should strongly lean towards calling. Etc.. But most hands, in most situations will have a clear way they should be played, no matter who the opponent is (because doing otherwise would create too much risk of your being beaten badly by the people at the table who are half-decent). </div><div><br></div><div>Generally speaking, the pros at a given dollar value will have similar skill levels. If anyone wasn't in the right league, they'd lose money and have to drop down, and if they were seriously outclassing the other players, they would probably make more money at a higher stake, even though they would have less of an edge there. That assumes you are at a Casino with enough levels where there are enough levels that you have the option to move up or down. <br clear="all"><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><br><div></div></div><div dir="ltr"><a href="mailto:echarles@american.edu" target="_blank"></a></div></div></div></div></div></div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Nov 8, 2021 at 5:51 PM Steve Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
  
    
  
  <div>
    <p>DaveW-</p>
    <p>Congratulations (or condolences) on your move to Vegas.  Another
      reference gave me the sense you might be at least *wintering*
      there.</p>
    <p>I probably would not be surprised (though shocked) by what
      Casinos can ban.  I didn't mean to suggest that they didn't have
      the self-granted authority to ban cell phones, etc.  but rather
      doing so would severely impact their popularity among the hordes
      of marks who happily come to give up their spare (or not so) cash
      to feed the bright lights and other egregious displays of wealth. 
      <br>
    </p>
    <p>The Thomas Bass rendition of Farmer et alia foray into exploiting
      manufacturing/wear biases in roulette wheels  <a href="https://www.thomasbass.com/the_eudaemonic_pie_1360.htm" target="_blank">Eudamonic
        Pie</a> suggests that today the same effort would be "trivial"
      with nothing more perhaps than a cell phone camera/computer
      observing from a shirt pocket.    Of course, those biases have
      long since been ameliorated one way or another I am sure.   <br>
    </p>
    <p>You describe poker tables as the one place the house has no stake
      in the game.  I have to admit that i don't know who pays the
      rent/real-estate on the table?  Is there a flat-rate rake-off from
      every pot?  Does the dealer live on tips?</p>
    <p>When the Native Casinos opened here, my elderDotter was turning
      18 and she had a friend who thought she wanted to grow up to be a
      blackjack dealer so they frequented the casino.  I don't know that
      my daughter lost/spent much money on it, but she never had any
      illusions that she could "beat the house".   I think their game
      was blackjack which I understand has the built-in tiny but
      positive bias to the house (the house wins all ties by
      convention?).   I told both daughters as they approached college
      that I had saved enough for them to be able to go through a BS/BA
      degree with only part-time/summer work contribution (or healthy
      scholarship) on their part.   I suggested that I cash it out and
      take it to the casino and drop it all on red or black (Roulette)
      with the understanding that their odds ware just a smidge short of
      doubling their money vs losing it all (the one green slot
      represents the house advantage?).  The conceit was that if they
      *won* they would then have enough cash to "coast" through college
      as *many* of their peers seemed to be supported or else if they
      *lost* they could forego any implied obligation of going to
      college.   They both honestly mulled it for at least 10 seconds
      before they rolled their eyes and said "no way!".  <br>
    </p>
    <p>I'm curious how you feel about my claim that the inter-personal
      dynamic at the poker table is in some sense more important than
      the technical skill?  My point in your case would be that you
      would be *at* a table where the technical skill level was roughly
      even, right?   Tournament play tends to support that, right?   As
      you advance, the skill level of your table-peers increases until
      you either step up YOUR game or fail out of the game?   <br>
    </p>
    <p>I think of you as having a strong mix of technical approach,
      intuition, and likely to engage in the social-emotional game as
      well (e.g. bluffing).</p>
    <p>- Steve<br>
    </p>
    <div>On 11/8/21 9:42 AM, Prof David West
      wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote type="cite">
      
      
      
      <div style="font-family:Arial">You would be surprised at what
        casinos can ban. Maybe even more surprised at the, not
        necessarily AI, software tools they use to analyze video feeds
        and pounce on any kind of statistically improbabilities. Most
        casinos in Vegas have tools, like mandatory side bets with very
        low odds, that erase the near equal odds of blackjack.<br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial">The only 'safe' gambling is poker
        where the house has no direct interest in the outcome.<br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial">As DES stated, winning is a matter
        of patience and losing antes only, until you get good hand and
        then skill of playing that hand for maximum return — playing
        less worse than the others at the table.<br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial">I am living in Vegas now and
        playing small tournaments fairly regularly.<br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial">davew<br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div style="font-family:Arial"><br>
      </div>
      <div>On Sun, Nov 7, 2021, at 7:23 PM, Steve Smith wrote:<br>
      </div>
      <blockquote type="cite" id="gmail-m_8012643350582239786qt">
        <p><br>
        </p>
        <div>On 11/7/21 12:02 PM, David Eric
          Smith wrote:<br>
        </div>
        <blockquote type="cite">There
          must be some kind of “Back to the future” movie that can be
          made out of this.  Doyne Farmer in Vegas all over again, but
          with current-era AI in place of toe-operated computers.  <br>
        </blockquote>
        <p>Yah!  Surely Casinos can't begin to restrict
          computers(phones)/earbuds, etc.  on the gaming floor.<br>
        </p>
        <p>Strange coincidence that my sister went to Kindergarten with
          Vance Packard (Norm's brother) in Silver City long before they
          all became eagle scouts and then the Chaos Cabal.  We moved
          away the next year and I doubt I ever met any of them back
          then.   I came to LANL just before (I think) Doyne came... I
          seem to remember that Norm was there for a summer...  and soon
          came the (in)famous CA conference...   As I remember it the
          game of interest (aside from Life, what with Conway in
          attendance) was GO with a lot of speculation about the
          implications of local vs global "intelligence"...   I was
          intrigued by HashLife and it's implications for finding
          structure at many scales... I still hope for someone with more
          follow-through than I have to implement a more redundant but
          "thorough" space-time decomposition (an N-1xN-1 kernel over
          the 4 positions at each "zoom" level).<br>
        </p>
        <p>Regarding poker.. I played some low-stakes in college and saw
          there were two things to take in:   the main technical skill
          was to simply play less poorly than the other players at the
          table and that was entirely overshadowed by the
          social-engineering games of bluffing, etc.   The very simple
          game-theoretic aspect of not depleting your own stake before
          you catch a "lucky streak" going your way was also a good
          understanding.   I played with my "boss" and a number of peers
          at the time and realized that it was more about jockeying for
          position at work and drinking beer than it was about
          winning/losing.  I think the most I ever lost/won was on the
          order of $20-$40 which in those days was roughly 1-2 shifts
          wages... a LOT if I joined them weekly... too rich for my
          blood!  I still feel that *technically* playing well really
          means just playing less badly.   Blackjack being even more
          obviously so?<br>
        </p>
        <blockquote type="cite">
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div>Yikes.<br>
          </div>
          <div><br>
          </div>
          <div>
            <div><br>
            </div>
            <div>
              <div><br>
              </div>
              <blockquote type="cite">
                <div>On Nov 7, 2021, at 1:56 PM, Marcus
                  Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
                  wrote:<br>
                </div>
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>
                  <div style="font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor">
                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">My inclination would be
                      to invest in standoff biometrics (e.g. Eulerian
                      Video Amplification) and then find the best poker
                      playing code.   It ought to be possible to
                      automate and perhaps get rich in the process.<br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="border-style:solid none none;border-top-width:1pt;border-top-color:rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in">
                      <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">
                        <div><b>From:</b><span> </span>Friam
                          <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>><span> </span><b>On Behalf Of<span> </span></b>Eric
                          Charles<br>
                        </div>
                        <div> <b>Sent:</b><span> </span>Sunday,
                          November 7, 2021 7:42 AM<br>
                        </div>
                        <div> <b>To:</b><span> </span>The
                          Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
                          <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
                        </div>
                        <div> <b>Subject:</b><span> </span>Re:
                          [FRIAM] lurking<br>
                        </div>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                    </div>
                    <div>
                      <div>
                        <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">I DID read all the
                          thread so far... but I'm curious how we got to
                          one of the starting points: "as cringy as it
                          may be for some dork to be proud of their
                          Poker prowess" <br>
                        </div>
                        <div>
                          <div>
                            <div>
                              <div>
                                <div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">I am
                                      somewhat satisfied with my Poker
                                      mediocrity, certainly not proud of
                                      it... but if I met someone who was
                                      ACTUALLY startlingly better than I
                                      am, and they were proud of that, I
                                      wouldn't find it cringy. (Ditto in
                                      my other hobbies, like Aikido.)<br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">I guess
                                      if I met someone who had a slight
                                      edge in their drunk-buddy home
                                      games, and they were super proud
                                      of THAT, then i would find it
                                      cringy. (Ditto someone who's the
                                      best Aikido student in their small
                                      dojo, but who's obviously not more
                                      than that.) <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">When I
                                      see academic work on game theory,
                                      it's usually of lower quality than
                                      what the good poker players are
                                      doing these days. Mastering the
                                      game is crazy hard, and being able
                                      to sit down and implement a
                                      coherent and winning strategy for
                                      40-80 hours a week is not easy.
                                      So... why would that be cringe? <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
                                  <div>
                                    <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> <br>
                                    </div>
                                  </div>
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                          <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">On Wed, Nov 3, 2021
                            at 1:42 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
                            wrote:<br>
                          </div>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote style="border-style:none none none solid;border-left-width:1pt;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
                          <div style="margin:0in;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">
                            <div>Ok, part of the story is knowing what
                              is really needed for reproducibility as a
                              function of context.<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> With that, then there's the matter of
                              how much control is afforded.   Is it
                              programmable in predictable ways?<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> -----Original Message-----<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
                              On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> Sent: Wednesday, November 3, 2021 8:20
                              AM<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> To:<span> </span><a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
                            </div>
                            <div> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lurking<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> Yeah, I agree. But context is Queen.
                              When the virus is created in the lab, it's
                              done with real stuff distilled from the
                              soupy world. Given enough of a difference
                              in context, the robot may not be able to
                              re-constitute the life because the soupy
                              world surrounding the robot doesn't have
                              the real stuff required. Such drastic
                              context changes could be a result of
                              translation through space or time. E.g.
                              trying to construct, on Mars, an organism
                              read/serialized on earth. Or e.g. trying
                              to construct an organism read millennia
                              ago, millennia in the future. It's naive
                              to talk about "science" as if any given
                              read-out formula thereby expressed is
                              *complete*. Science is abstraction to a
                              large extent ... maybe not as abstracting
                              as math, of course. And science must
                              remain "open" precisely because any
                              formula it expresses is suspect, perhaps
                              incomplete.<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> My favorite example is the magic
                              brewing stick:<span> </span><a href="https://medievalmeadandbeer.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/scandinavian-yeast-logs-yeast-rings/" style="color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor" target="_blank">https://medievalmeadandbeer.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/scandinavian-yeast-logs-yeast-rings/</a><span> </span>It
                              *was* scientific to lay out the magic
                              stick as a critical element of the brewing
                              process, only to discover later that the
                              stick isn't the important part.<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> On 11/2/21 2:39 PM, Marcus Daniels
                              wrote:<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> > Even if that were so, viruses
                              have been pulled from history or tweaked
                              and created in the lab.   So we have a
                              design specification, and the means to
                              make it.    One could imagine a robot
                              fabricating the close-to-the-metal machine
                              too.   There is a story one can write down
                              how it is done.   If there is no story, it
                              is not science we are talking about, it is
                              something else. <span> </span><br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <br>
                            </div>
                            <div> --<span> </span><br>
                            </div>
                            <div> "Better to be slapped with the truth
                              than kissed with a lie."<br>
                            </div>
                            <div> <span>☤</span>>$
                              uǝlƃ<br>
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          <pre>.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .
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