<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText
{mso-style-priority:1;
mso-style-link:"Body Text Char";
margin:0in;
text-autospace:none;
font-size:10.5pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
p.quotation, li.quotation, div.quotation
{mso-style-name:quotation;
mso-style-link:"quotation Char";
margin-top:0in;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:.5in;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic;}
span.quotationChar
{mso-style-name:"quotation Char";
mso-style-link:quotation;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic;}
span.EmailStyle21
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
span.BodyTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Body Text Char";
mso-style-priority:1;
mso-style-link:"Body Text";
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Frank, Thanks for sticking with me on this. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>My comment was not conceptual, merely algebraic: Can<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=quotation>Pr(R<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>t<sub>3</sub><span style='letter-spacing:-.8pt'> </span>|<span style='letter-spacing:.35pt'> </span>I<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.4pt'> </span>t<sub>2</sub>)<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>=<span style='letter-spacing:.5pt'> </span>Pr(R<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>t<sub>3</sub><span style='letter-spacing:-.8pt'> </span>|<span style='letter-spacing:.4pt'> </span>I<span style='letter-spacing:.4pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.4pt'> </span>t<sub>2</sub><span style='letter-spacing:-.75pt'> </span>&<span style='letter-spacing:.5pt'> </span>S<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>t<sub>1</sub>).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoBodyText style='punctuation-wrap:simple'><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoBodyText style='punctuation-wrap:simple'><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>…be true if the value of </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>S<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>at<span style='letter-spacing:.45pt'> </span>t<sub>1</sub>.is anything other than one?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoBodyText style='punctuation-wrap:simple'><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoBodyText style='punctuation-wrap:simple'><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>n<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, December 6, 2021 3:07 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Screening off<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>The question isn't whether 1 has occurred but what is the value of 1 (it's a variable) and is the distribution of 3 is independent of that observed value.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sat, Dec 4, 2021, 5:38 PM Nicholas Thompson <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><p class=MsoNormal>Frank, <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from 1, if the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred. As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of 1 occurring is 1.00. Another way to say that is that the probability that 3 occurs if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred. What's the fun in that? In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has occurred. Isn"t this true of all causal abduction? <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>N<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><br>.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives:<br> 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>