<div dir="auto"><div>We need to get together with a whiteboard or paper.  The value of S at t1 could be 190 cm if S is height and t1 is Nick Thompson.<br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:23 PM  <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="purple" style="word-wrap:break-word"><div class="m_-859599193701357641WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal">Frank,  Thanks for sticking with me on this. <u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">My comment was not conceptual, merely algebraic:  Can<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="m_-859599193701357641quotation">Pr(R<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>t₃<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>|<span style="letter-spacing:.35pt"> </span>I<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.4pt"> </span>t₂)<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>=<span style="letter-spacing:.5pt"> </span>Pr(R<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>t₃<span style="letter-spacing:-.8pt"> </span>|<span style="letter-spacing:.4pt"> </span>I<span style="letter-spacing:.4pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.4pt"> </span>t₂<span style="letter-spacing:-.75pt"> </span>&<span style="letter-spacing:.5pt"> </span>S<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>t₁).<u></u><u></u></p><p class="m_-859599193701357641MsoBodyText"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="m_-859599193701357641MsoBodyText"><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">…be true if the value of </span><span style="font-size:10.0pt">S<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>at<span style="letter-spacing:.45pt"> </span>t₁.is anything other than one?<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="m_-859599193701357641MsoBodyText"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="m_-859599193701357641MsoBodyText"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">n<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Nick Thompson<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"><span style="color:#0563c1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"><span style="color:#0563c1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, December 6, 2021 3:07 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Screening off<u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">The question isn't whether 1 has occurred but what is the value of 1 (it's a variable) and is the distribution of 3 is independent of that observed value.<u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal">---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM<u></u><u></u></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Sat, Dec 4, 2021, 5:38 PM Nicholas Thompson <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><p class="MsoNormal">Frank, <u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from 1, if  the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred.     As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of 1 occurring is 1.00.  Another way to say that is that the probability that 3 occurs  if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred.  What's the fun in that?  In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has occurred.  Isn"t this true of all causal abduction?  <u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">N<u></u><u></u></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br>.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6  <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives:<br> 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br> 1/2003 thru 6/2021  <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><u></u><u></u></p></blockquote></div></div></div><br>
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