<div dir="auto">Eric,<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Teddy Seidenfeld and Clark Glymour know each other *very* well.  There is no chance that the Similarity of titles is coincidental.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Frank</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM</div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Jan 7, 2022, 6:20 PM David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">The closest thing I can think of, Frank, is Teddy Seidenfeld’s paper Why I am not an Objective Bayesian.<br>
<br>
But that is enough of a different position that it could be a derivative title, with quite a different theme.<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Jan 7, 2022, at 8:56 AM, Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> <br>
> Who wrote a widely cited paper with the title Why I am Not a Bayesian.<br>
> <br>
> "I have not found on the web any calculation of the probability that you have covid given that you have just decided to take a home covid antigen test and found a positive result.  So I did a couple.<br>
> <br>
> Abbott Laboratories Rapid antigen covid test (the only one I could get real numbers for):<br>
> <br>
> "The BinaxNOW test correctly gave a positive result 84.6% of the time compared to PCR. In the same study, the test correctly gave a negative result 98.5% of the time." <br>
> <br>
> I will assume that PCR results are ground truth. Assume the base rate of covid infection is 5%--the frequency of infectious covid among people you have come in contact with in the last several days.  Applying Bayes Theorem:<br>
> <br>
> pr(covid | positive test) = .05 pr(positive test | covid) / pr(positive test) =<br>
> <br>
> .05 x .846 / (pr (positive test | covid) pr(covid) + pr(positive test | no covid) pr(no covid)) =<br>
> <br>
> .0423 / (.846 x .05 + .15 x .95)  = .0423 / (.0423 + .1425) = .0423 / .1848 = .2288<br>
> <br>
> If the base rate of covid infection is 10% the probability of covid given a positive test is <br>
> <br>
> .0846 / .0846 +.135 = .3852.<br>
> <br>
> Bayes say you probably don't have covid. Moral: don't worry but quarantine until you get a negative PCR result."<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> ---<br>
> Frank C. Wimberly<br>
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
> <br>
> 505 670-9918<br>
> Santa Fe, NM<br>
> <br>
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