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<font size="4"><font face="Adobe Garamond Pro"> Great, many
thanks, Pietro</font></font><br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Il 26/02/22 17:04, Jochen Fromm ha
scritto:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:621a4fa0.1c69fb81.e2e39.e4d1SMTPIN_ADDED_MISSING@mx.google.com">
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<div dir="auto">I have created and run a simple agent-based model
for democratic backsliding</div>
<div dir="auto"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBackslidingABM.ipynb">https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBackslidingABM.ipynb</a><br>
<br>
It is in fact in agreement with the theory mentioned earlier
(the replicator equation for the coordination game described
here)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBacksliding.ipynb">https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBacksliding.ipynb</a><br>
<br>
It is just a simple model, but I believe it can help to explain
why people in authoritarian states like Russia or Belarus do not
overthrow their authoritarian government. If they protest, they
are imprisoned and vanish. If the momentum is big enough, the
situation can be different, though. <br>
<br>
The same dynamics can be found in the opposite direction:
criminals and con men usually do not try to change the existing
political order. If they do, they are imprisoned and disappear
behind bars. If the crisis is big enough, then sometimes they
really succeed in turning a democracy into an authoritarian
regime.<br>
<br>
What do you think, does it make sense for you? <br>
<br>
-J.<br>
<br>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Gianpiero Pescarmona, Pietro Terna, Alberto Acquadro, Paolo Pescarmona, Giuseppe Russo, Emilio Sulis and Stefano Terna (2021),
An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Diffusion to Plan and Evaluate Intervention Policies,
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.08885">http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.08885</a>
Brevi testi a <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://terna.to.it/breviArticoli.html">https://terna.to.it/breviArticoli.html</a>
Home page: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://terna.to.it">https://terna.to.it</a> Twitter: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/@pietroterna">https://twitter.com/@pietroterna</a>
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