<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://livebeachcam.net/capital-of-ukraine-live-webcam-rusanivka-neighborhood-in-kiev/">https://livebeachcam.net/capital-of-ukraine-live-webcam-rusanivka-neighborhood-in-kiev/</a></p>
<p>I'm now seeing missile strikes on apartment buildings in
Karkiev... the first sign of conflict in any of these webcams...
the daylight matches the 8AM local and the onscreen clock reads 1
minute behind real-time... <br>
</p>
<p>Someone seems to be driving the pan/zoom on the one in Karkiev
where the missile strikes are coming in. <br>
</p>
<p>Also on youtubelive:</p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6pvh49jSNM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6pvh49jSNM</a><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 3/5/22 11:03 PM, Steve Smith wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:6d680346-e200-8ab8-296e-ef454a42c364@swcp.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://livebeachcam.net/kharkiv-ukraine-live-webcam/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://livebeachcam.net/kharkiv-ukraine-live-webcam/</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://livebeachcam.net/dnipro-ukraine-live-webcam-2/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://livebeachcam.net/dnipro-ukraine-live-webcam-2/</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://livebeachcam.net/mykolaiv-ukraine-live-webcam/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://livebeachcam.net/mykolaiv-ukraine-live-webcam/</a><br>
</p>
<p>These are the main (apparently) live webcams I have found out
of Ukraine... A lot have been taken offline or restricted
access (for obvious reasons re: Russian Army Intell). e.g.
everything in Odessa is restricted or non-operational that I can
find. The Ukraine/Polish border crossings seem to be
down/offline. I'm surprised Mykolaiv is up/online... <br>
</p>
<p>Everything that is online shows a very quiet/slow moment
(Sunday AM ~11PM MDT+9 = 0800?). I don't know what curfew
status is in place. <br>
</p>
<p>Realtime update @7:53 AM Kyiv time, Zelinsky seems to be
broadcasting a live address coming in over some of the
webcams... I have absolutely no ear for Slavic languages, so I
can only parse emotional content. Adamant, resolved and
persuasive... <br>
</p>
<p>The Ukranian? broadcaster that took over all the live feeds is
still feeding through the previously unavailable "black sea"
webcam:</p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://livebeachcam.net/black-sea-live-webcam/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://livebeachcam.net/black-sea-live-webcam/</a></p>
<p>Lots of UkrainGlish words coming through like Anthony Blinken,
Lindsay Graham, No-Fly-Zona, and recognizeble place names...<br>
</p>
<p>Geeze! This war will be not just televised but Webcast and
Tweeted. <br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>....<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 3/5/22 10:36 PM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:BYAPR11MB383050C17ED5D76AE062BBE2C5079@BYAPR11MB3830.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;
charset=UTF-8">
<meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered
medium)">
<style>@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:#0563C1;
text-decoration:underline;}pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0in;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";}span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:"Consolas",serif;}span.EmailStyle24
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}</style>
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">For now, convoys coming out of Poland or
other countries can try to disguise arms as humanitarian
relief. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One could imagine that Javelins could be
hidden in small trucks. It gets harder to disguise a
MiG-29. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But there’s no plausible deniability here
about Javelins and other weapons intended for Ukraine. The
stated intent of NATO and the US is to enable Ukrainian
armed forces to kill Russian soldiers. At some point,
probably relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle
large volumes of advanced weapons into Ukraine. Then
what? Wait for Putin to knock on the door of a NATO
country? He’ll say, “but I have tactical nuclear weapons”,
what are you going to do? [1] <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Another option is to declare that convoys
to and from Ukraine will get NATO escorts. Then it is on
the Russians to escalate: Don’t you dare shoot at us. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I don’t see any way that Putin can be
allowed to come out of this. His military needs to be
degraded. It can happen now, or it can happen later. If
it happens later there are going to be a lot of dead
Ukrainians. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he
wants it to be a radioactive DMZ. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Marcus<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">[1] <a
href="https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steve Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column)
semi-regularly months ago even though his affect triggers a
lot of my attempts to ignore my own redneck roots. I don't
think I've mentioned him before... I half expect Glen is
already clued in to him. It is hard to see/hear him without
expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in the background,
but he's quite the opposite. Scary relevant/clued in/clear
IMO.<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those
(politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers.
To summarize, my takeaway was "if you think you can
establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine, it would be yonks better
to keep your powder dry and do a first strike because a
no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even though he'll likely
find another anyway".<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew in Madison WI
hosted a young woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a
few years ago. They did a GoFundme to raise the cash to do
everything they could to get her out. She was hunkered down
80 miles East of Kyiv on a farm she was interning (organic
farming) on... all the women and children evacuated fairly
early on but they didn't have room for all so she and
another young woman stayed behind. In the last two days,
she worked her way from there to Lviv (<50 miles from
Poland) and hopes to make it to the border where the current
time just standing in line to be processed is order 20 hours
(according to her) though Poland has no document
requirements... if you show up at the border and you are
not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name and
try to help you figure out what to do next I guess. The
nephew and wife who are expecting their second child any day
now are trying to get her here to their rural homestead to
live indefinitely. Otherwise (imminent birth) her nephew
would be in Poland to meet her. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me,
but our mutual colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt
and Janire of 4Pi Productions, some of you met/knew through
SFx... English/Spanish) speak with the non-Russian of the
duo (Yuri) every day or two. They are hyper-focused
capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one of the
guys figuring out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with
prosumer drones or something. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have
only had one brief contact with a couple of days ago. She
is a lot less resourceful and in spite of having power,
water, even internet (intermittently) doesn't know what to
do beyond hiding in her basement (apartment building)
everytime there is a air raid warning. She wasn't able to
give me enough info in our brief exchange to know how to
even begin to help her personally. Right now financial
aid in general (as per Glen's ideations against
over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems like
the "most/least" we can do.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada)
has 12 colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago
and a similar or larger number in Russia) and expects to get
more "insider stories" from both quarters "soon".<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11,
Iraq/Afghanistan, COVID, even Trump.... maybe it is the
proximity in time, or a lifetime of cold-war spectre.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<pre><o:p> </o:p></pre>
<pre>.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives:<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre> 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives:
5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">
.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives:
5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>