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<p>Marcus -</p>
<p>For whatever reason, the map image you attached doesn't show any
radii but I (think I) appreciate the link to the calculator.<br>
</p>
<p><img style="width:8.2976in;height:5.3333in" id="Picture_x0020_1"
src="cid:part1.vSFAn85C.grF1DnD3@swcp.com" class="" width="797"
height="512" border="0"></p>
<p> <darkness alert>Too Dark Don't Read (TDDR)<br>
</p>
<p>I did a demonstration study for DHS circa 2002 using Keyhole
(pre-google earth) to provide a more visceral (first person POV)
of what suitcase-sized nukes could do in a city (like DC). The
nuclear effects code was unclassified and provided mainly radii
for about a dozen effects starting with blast/overpressure,
thermal pulse, visual system damage, direct radiation, fallout,
etc. We then coupled that with infrastructure and population
models and the cascading effects. 10kt is very ugly in any
population center. Conventional weapons are almost purely
blast/thermal harm, the rest is a bonus on nuclear. Fallout and
cascading effects are by far the worst at those scales. <br>
</p>
<p>I didn't learn anything new exactly except maybe the one detail
that if you are going to be looking toward a nuclear detonation
from far enough away to survive the thermal effects and the
overpressure and building collapses that come with it, then you
are better off staring at it at the point of ignition, because the
"flash blindness" it causes will keep you from then staring raptly
at the fireball (as everyone in the movies do) because this will
cause permanent retinal burns. This reference minimizes the
likelihood of retinal burns, but I was informed otherwise, I think
simple logic is on my side?
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.atomicarchive.com/science/effects/flash-blindness.html">https://www.atomicarchive.com/science/effects/flash-blindness.html</a>
<br>
</p>
<p>Just imagine the effect of all the airliner pilots on approach to
BWI/Reagan when both pilot and copilot are in their seats who
might go blind for 2 minutes if the EMP doesn't take out their
fly-by-wire controls? We still had 9/11 images in our heads a
that point, so one suitcase nuke and some percentage of aircraft
on takeoff-landing coming down... hell...</p>
<p>Energetically nuclear weapons are fairly trivial on a global
scale (1000W/square meter flux from the sun across the dayside
surface for example), I think the whole arsenal of all the
countries is on the order of one major hurricane. Non-trivial but
not biosphere disrupting. It think Mt. St. Helens was 400MT
energetically (order 10 "supers")... but the stratospheric
particulates (nuclear winter) were a fraction of the equivalent in
nukes. <br>
</p>
<p>Yes, the "green glass lined holes" left in the top 10-100 meters
of the earth surface would be trivial by some measure. But
poison fallout and stratospheric particulates would ramp up fast
with anything more than a few "surgical" theater-scale strikes.
This is part of the reason for developing "neutron" weapons, to
enhance battlefield casualties with limited infrastructure damage
and latent radiation... "clean nukes" I think they called them.
Just as wicked as the "vacuum bombs" people have talked about.
Suck the air out of human's lungs without knocking down the
buildings they are hiding in. Pretty. On the other end are the
cobalt/salted weapons designed to *enhance* fallout and latent
radiation harm to living things. Not unlike the Roman's habit of
"salting" the enemies fields so they can't recover their
agriculture in less than years, decades, generations. <br>
</p>
<p>This whole discussion puts a harsh spotlight on the worst in
human nature captured well by Thomas Lux's poem <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/48485/the-people-of-the-other-village">The
People of the other Village</a>.</p>
<p>10,000 brutal, beautiful years,</p>
<p> Darkly,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
On 3/11/22 10:06 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:BYAPR11MB38300CFBDA0572A0C9BDD87BC50C9@BYAPR11MB3830.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
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<p class="MsoPlainText">Steve writes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">< If you are suggesting that the use
of nuclear weapons by NATO or Russia in this conflict would be
limited to "a handful" (1, 2, 3 digits?) exchanged from each
side, and the result of *that* would result instead in Glen's
"tacit demonstration". ><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Here's 50 kt yield in the context of the
country. (Courtesy of
<a href="https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/</a>)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">I’m just saying it could go on a
while. I think Putin doesn’t give a damn about his armed
forces, and would not treat a battlefield exchange the same
way he would treat an attack on Moscow.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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