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<p>I don't feel qualified to understand much of this study nor how
good of science it is, but taking it at face value, I find it
fascinating that the gist of the introduction is that the
attribution of death to COVID-19 is likely under-reported rather
than over-reported as many of the wingnuts who started with "no
worse than the flu", then segued to "democrat hoax" to "chinese
plot" to "fauci funded chinese plot". While I suspect the
anecdotes they parlayed had *some* real and honest examples to
draw from anecdotes are so easy to manufacture, clone, magnify
that they were suspect from the beginning. <br>
</p>
<p>EricS's point that (proper/complete?) statistical analysis lags
(trickles in) is important and something I've been trying to
understand for myself in my own personal understanding of large,
sweeping changes in our socioeconomicpolitical landscape. I'm
exhausted from hearing the never-ending micro-analysis of each
tranche of factoids that hit the media (currently the txt messages
surrounding Jan 6 2021), but nevertheless unable to look away for
very long. And yet I believe/trust that hindsight, filtered
through more thorough analysis will outline a much better picture
than in-the-moment knee-jerk analysis possibly can. I
vaguely/acutely remember everyone I knew hanging on each day's
"new cases" and "hospitalizations" and "deaths" during the first
3-6 months, even as I knew that a more complete contextualized
analysis of those numbers would not be out for weeks or even
months. it was a time of a certain kind of hypervigilance. I
had a similar period during the opening weeks of the Russian
Invasion of Ukraine where I went searching for Ukranian webcams
and watched them in the background, imagining that I would see
something there that would give me more useful information than
what I was getting from the incessant streams of mainstream media
and social media reports/opinions.</p>
<p>The ability of one person to distribute their attention across
many orders of magnitude in time/space/link-distance seems limited
by our genetics. We were "designed" to notice things within our
hearing and sight and olfactory range and socially we might have
magnified/distributed that by being part of a "tribe" and
augmented it by hanging out with other creatures (herd animals,
pack familiars, birds) that we could trust to alert us to things
outside of our sensitivity or distance ranges. By the time of
the early empires we had bureaucracies, frontier scouts,
messengers to bring and synthesize events for us from many days or
weeks travel away. We also developed specialized logos to
gather/study/analyze/report these things through unique lenses.
The Enlightenment brought a more formalized/normalized approach to
all of this while the Age of Exploration expanded the scope and
shortened the time-lag. The Age of Communication and
Transportation once again expanded and shrank it all at once. <br>
</p>
<p>In my own lifetime, space-science and digital
comm/storage/computation radically leveraged all that came before
it, yet I am still no more able as an individual than most any of
those forebearers going back into deep pre-history, to sort it all
out. <br>
</p>
<p>One of my current ponderings is whether the global
data/information/knowledge/wisdom synthesis capability of humanity
as a collective is developing fast enough to keep up with the
implied (destructive or at least dangerously disruptive) effects
of the advances implied above. On a good day I believe we might
be winning the Red Queen's Gambit, but then I turn on the news or
have a serious chat with Joe Sixpack and feel as if I've fallen
under the wheels of her bus.</p>
<p>Tx to EricS (and others here) articles like this (making studies
like this more accessible to the educated layman) are a boon, but
remind me of the dynamic-range limitations we all suffer under.</p>
<p>On a complementary topic, I recognized early on that the global
diversity of culture and political style/will meant that we would
eventually have a huge amount of data on how different approaches
to this class of pandemic would work and in principle, the more
enlightened public health systems (even the bureaucratic
globalized WHO) could learn very important epidemiological things
from it. A meta-immune system responding to the
mis/dis/mal-information that came along with the epidemiological
facts of the disease spread itself. <br>
</p>
<p>DaveW made a point early on that the pandemic was entirely
(mostly?) one of mis/dis/mal-information. I believe he was proven
wrong about that as it unfolded but the suspicion that it might be
otherwise was not entirely unmotivated or irrelevant.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAA5dAfo-FQkN8j9J3Ci75BDnJML=vp3EhaGFJ+Stv_AxYitWjQ@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="auto">Note the mention of racial differences in Vitamin
D deficiency.<br>
<br>
<div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>
Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Apr 25, 2022, 11:19 PM
Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto">
Interesting latitude is a predictive variable..
<div><br>
</div>
<div><a
href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7319635/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7319635/</a><br>
<div dir="ltr"><br>
<blockquote type="cite">On Apr 25, 2022, at 9:31 PM,
David Eric Smith <<a
href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr"> This came to me over another channel;
nice to have:
<div><br>
</div>
<div> <a
href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2flancet%2farticle%2fPIIS0140-6736%2821%2902796-3%2ffulltext&c=E,1,h7wGi7AsxArjZbhRLTUyK3_gChBRNJ-OX8KaCaRyF_fPDUTjvJZuPIgULI5QFQu2l1BDZUGPebHpp1hCMueuqQfLq0nKMmGHAoUdMNg1FGWCCFiRxY3y9g,,&typo=1"
rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext</a><br>
</div>
<div>Table with summary values:</div>
<div> <a
href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2faction%2fshowFullTableHTML%3fisHtml%3dtrue%26tableId%3dtbl1%26pii%3dS0140-6736%252821%252902796-3&c=E,1,C2k7yG9jZhpsy7KvkwQbdGbkqP_NlYRzv-PDXO249sH2kQD9qv4H-NDd-t1gRysJNRwADN1dI3yQ02vbQ1y-scljdVADM7OpP1zfrjNASrx8kJNb&typo=1"
rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3</a><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Eventually, statistical analyses trickle in…</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Eric</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
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