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<p class="MsoNormal">Humiliation is not predictive of fascism, am I reading that right?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Steve Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, July 15, 2022 1:29 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> friam@redfish.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:<o:p></o:p></p>
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The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1">
How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in? <o:p></o:p></li><ol start="1" type="1">
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Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?<o:p></o:p></li></ol>
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<p>I'm probably missing something (a lot)?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>- Steve<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I
enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb">https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-J.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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