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You might try recursive partitioning for a directly interpretable model. Extreme gradient boosting is state-of-the-art but will be more steps to harder to interpret, like here, with the neural net.
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<div dir="ltr">Sent from my iPhone</div>
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<blockquote type="cite">On Jul 16, 2022, at 12:46 PM, Jochen Fromm <jofr@cas-group.net> wrote:<br>
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<div dir="auto">It is the first time I am using the SHAP package and I am not completely sure how to interpret the result</div>
<div dir="auto">https://shap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.html</div>
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<div dir="auto">I would say humiliation is definitely an essential factor. In Germany before the emergence of Nazism there was for instance a feeling of national humiliation after the loss of WW I and the Treaty of Versailles. Robert Paxton also mentions it
in his book about the anatomy of fascism.</div>
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<div dir="auto">-J.</div>
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<div>-------- Original message --------</div>
<div>From: Marcus Daniels <marcus@snoutfarm.com> </div>
<div>Date: 7/15/22 11:57 PM (GMT+01:00) </div>
<div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> </div>
<div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism </div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Humiliation is not predictive of fascism, am I reading that right?</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Steve Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, July 15, 2022 1:29 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> friam@redfish.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Modeling Fascism</p>
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<p>for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:</p>
<p> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value</a></p>
<p>I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:</p>
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<li style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" class="MsoNormal">
The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?</li><li style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" class="MsoNormal">
I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in this context.</li><li style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" class="MsoNormal">
How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in? </li><ol type="1" start="1">
<li style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1" class="MsoNormal">
Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?</li></ol>
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<p>I'm probably missing something (a lot)?</p>
<p>- Steve</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I
enter values which fit to the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb">https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb</a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-J.</p>
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