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<p>Eric -</p>
<p>I like your introduction of "some kind of Ambivalence
Frontier"... I think this also expresses itself in the "close
races" we have in politics these days... a vague correlate to what
happens with high-scoring competitive games (like basketball)
which often end up in close calls with a few last-minute scores
ultimately declaring the winner?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/3/23 1:31 PM, David Eric Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:90657EAA-08A6-4AFF-960E-325DE3F9C864@santafe.edu">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
Long a favorite topic of mine.
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Let me send you a link; almost-surely not the best,
but done with ~1min of google searching images:</div>
<div class=""><a
href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233384"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233384</a></div>
<div class="">See the 5th figure for actual data, rather than
models. </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">But my understanding is that Gompertz mortality
statistics are unbelievably universal across metazoans. The
parameters can be shifted by lots of factors, but the functional
form (which takes only a couple of parameters) is absurdly more
robust than one would expect given all that varies.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Anyway, to the extent that there is Gompertz
mortality, there is a natural associated age for
age-associated-death. For people it’s somewhere in the 70-80
range, and I think there can be as much as a 10-year difference
across different world gene pools (Japanese being at the upper
end, and maybe some other group in Central Asia east of the
Caucasus; I forget).</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">A thing I remember being told by a guy who does this
kind of work, there seem to be two modes between
development-linked diseases (think, childhood leukemias), and
age-associated diseases. We have made remarkable progress on
many of the former, and very little on many of the latter. Also
(and I got this from researchers at Einstein college in Yeshiva
some years ago, or from a stack of their papers), if one avoids
rather specific risk factors, like welding or smoking for lung
cancers, or dioxin exposures for male breast cancers or the
like, the leading predictor for most of the old-age diseases is
just your age. So it has (to me) the look of what Holmse’s
Wonderful One-Hoss Shay would be if redone with Poisson
statistics, to become a minimum-information process. The nail
that stuck up got hammered down (extra resources for any disease
that becomes visible to selection) that now all the nails are at
about the same height, and there is some kind of ambivalence
frontier.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">My own anecdotal experience suggests that my
previous paragraphs can’t possibly be right, since there clearly
are common and rare diseases of the old. But I didn’t make this
stuff up, and got it from some serious literature.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Thanks, </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Eric</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Jan 3, 2023, at 1:01 PM, glen <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div class="">">144 mmol/l with 21% elevated risk of
premature mortality". My last test a week ago showed
144! Whew! I guess I have a normal risk for premature
mortality. 8^D<br class="">
<br class="">
The concept of "premature death" is flat out ridiculous.
But our inability to well-define it raises some
interesting questions.<br class="">
<br class="">
• deprivation (by the dead, by the rest of us) - is the
death of Ramanujan at 32 *more* premature than the death
of some rando at 32?<br class="">
• life expectancy seems like yet another instance of
people not understanding statistics<br class="">
• quality of life - is the death of a 20 year old born
into and likely to live in poverty *as* premature as the
death of a 20 year old born with a silver spoon?<br
class="">
• natural selection - is it premature for a 35 year old
who's bred, say, 10 children to die?<br class="">
· or is it premature for them to die before their
children have children? I.e. is being a grandparent a
necessary element of a breeder's life?<br class="">
• consequentialism - had Hitler dyed at age 35, would
that have been premature?<br class="">
<br class="">
I know this seems like a tangent upon tangents. But it's
not. It's nonsense to relate serum Na to premature
mortality because premature mortality is nonsense.
Prevalence of chronic disease seems, to me, a little
more well-formed ... but not by much. Biological age
just seems like pseudoscience to me, the flip side of
Vampirism. I'd welcome an education, though.<br class="">
<br class="">
On 1/2/23 13:34, Roger Critchlow wrote:<br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">There was a hacker news
item this morning about maintaining hydration and
chronic illness:<br class="">
<a
href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,faHDDOmfSmBCowvyxqbh2EUz38-Hun0lWmP7p9abh_tufHZOPXeJwvh0zeVEv_pEJaprXTWcos80ECDWoak-cqMSeiutR3SgT9gK0pLzL_sP_rE,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,faHDDOmfSmBCowvyxqbh2EUz38-Hun0lWmP7p9abh_tufHZOPXeJwvh0zeVEv_pEJaprXTWcos80ECDWoak-cqMSeiutR3SgT9gK0pLzL_sP_rE,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext</a>
<<a
href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,3LHxHO_rViNgwp08a3UTrLq1b_6yBaBjAfTKkzoiGgk1aUzN0rPYsbYzlJsfApi25gw42MqluJCqfiu35DTgrGehNVRLAaY9x0j7RY6uGcDwh4A,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,3LHxHO_rViNgwp08a3UTrLq1b_6yBaBjAfTKkzoiGgk1aUzN0rPYsbYzlJsfApi25gw42MqluJCqfiu35DTgrGehNVRLAaY9x0j7RY6uGcDwh4A,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext</a>><br
class="">
those who exceeded 142 mmol/l of serum sodium in
middle age got sicker more often later in life.<br
class="">
It's the first measurement on my comprehensive
metabolic panels.<br class="">
It would be really funny if there actually was "One
simple trick to staying healthy!", but it was only
discovered after we had conditioned ourselves into
never reading any article with such a title.<br
class="">
-- rec --<br class="">
On Mon, Jan 2, 2023 at 2:04 PM glen <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>
<<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">mailto:gepropella@gmail.com</a>>>
wrote:<br class="">
I think a mobility checkup would be more useful
than blood tests. See if you can stand on one foot for
10 seconds. Spin you around and measure eye wobble.
Measure joint angles in a sit-to-stand test. Etc.
Strength and reflex tests would also be useful. I
*suppose* cognitive testing trends would be useful.
I'd love to see, eg how my performance varies on
something like a memory test or some logic puzzles.
With the covid loss of smell and taste thing, it would
even be cool to have a battery of sensory stimuli of
some kind. If the personality tests had any
credibility, they'd be interesting to track over time
as well. Would you learn anything? IDK. But it would
be more interesting than the typical test results.<br
class="">
On 1/2/23 12:01, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br class="">
> The last time I went in for a wellness check,
the doctor seemed annoyed that I was there. I left,
humiliated.<br class="">
><br class="">
> But it has been a while, and I am wondering
what it would take to actually learn something from a
checkup. Is there some standard package of broad
blood tests and/or MRIs that would be a clue I was
becoming gravely ill? I was just shopping for new
insurance and was excited to learn all the things I
can prepare for (Aflac's various products). What
would I even ask for?<br class="">
><br class="">
> A few years ago, I had a car accident on the
snow in Santa Fe and had to have quite a bit of work
done on my car. I have to say billing the insurance
for that was very satisfying. I had been paying all
these years and had nothing to show for it. It is
especially true for my medical coverage.<br class="">
><br class="">
> To me going to the doctor is just an
opportunity to get COVID-19 in the waiting room. How
can I get more from this experience?<br class="">
</blockquote>
<br class="">
<br class="">
-- <br class="">
ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ<br class="">
<br class="">
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