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<p>Ed -</p>
<p>Thanks for weighing in from your current SA location. While I
specifically called out the distribution of places that our
members *live*, I failed to think (much) about how widely traveled
(currently and over a career) many of our members are. I did not
know you had so much experience with South America.</p>
<p>When my sister and young family moved to Santiago Chile (just as
Pinochet was finally deposed) I became aware of the *deep history*
of Santiago in particular the early Spanish colonization (founded
well before Santa Fe, for example)... and the strong role in
European colonization around the world, with Santiago (founded mid
1500s) as a powerful precursor to what we in the US think of as
San Francisco (founded late 1700s) being. <br>
</p>
<p>Unfortunately, their grasp of *contemporary* politics was colored
by the fact that her husband worked for a major Copper Mining
company and his peers in Chile were all pretty much apologists for
Pinochet since they had "grown up" under his version of
neoliberalism influenced by the "Chicago Boys" and (covertly?)
backed by the US (e.g. operation Condor). Before all of this,
most of what I knew about the politics of South America came from
an outdated/lame public-high-school world history class taught by
a football coach, and the reactive populist left-wing movement who
was (trying to) calling out the CIA, etc. which I mostly dismissed
as kneejerk-liberal-hysteria. History strongly suggests
otherwise (to the hysteria). <br>
</p>
<p>I do agree that references to "Golden Ages" such as the paper I
linked are part of a larger *post-colonial* golden-age period
throughout the part of the world that (at that time) was recently
freed from *overt political euro-american dominance* but was on
the rise of multinational corporations (such as the one my
brother-in-law worked for).</p>
<p>I appreciated your categorization of the southern Big-three, the
Andean and the Central American. The main things they would seem
to have in common was the initial Spanish Colonization and the
more modern manipulation by the USA, it's allies and enemies
(USSR) for political and corporate gain.</p>
<p>The main thing I'm interested in *myself* is the question of
"what is next" for the world-at-large, but in particular the huge
population tail represented by the "developing world"... What
challenges (and more to the point, opportunities) do these huge
regions of the world represent (beyond the semi-infinite source of
natural resources they have been to the US, Europe, and China)?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/13/23 4:01 PM, Ed Angel wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:E44F2003-6689-4FFA-A022-0542B450D202@gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
Gary, you may remember that I lived in Quito not far from where I
think you are while on sabbatical; half in Ecuador and half in
Venezuela. I’ve also spent time in most South American and half of
Central American countries. This email chain reached me in
Argentina.
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">It strikes me as silly to refer to a "Latin
American" Golden Age or any other term.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">The southern big three (Argentina, Brazil, Chile)
are completely different historically and culturally from the
Andean countries (Ecuador, Peru, Columbia, Venezuela) and both
are very differemt from most of Central America (Guatemala,
Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua).</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">What I suspect the reference is about is the period
before and after WW 2 when the southern three were doing quite
well. The Europeans had eliminated almost all the native
population and all had large numbers of European immigrants
about the same as the U.S. Because they were not participants in
WW2 they not only escaped the destruction in Europe but were
able to profit from exports such the beef from Argentina and
various natural resources.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Ed <br class="">
<div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color:
rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
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class="">
<div>____________<br class="">
<br class="">
Ed Angel<br class="">
<br class="">
Founding Director, Art, Research, Technology and
Science Laboratory (ARTS Lab)<br class="">
Professor Emeritus of Computer Science, University of
New Mexico<br class="">
<br class="">
1017 Sierra Pinon<br class="">
Santa Fe, NM 87501<br class="">
505-984-0136 (home)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><a
href="mailto:angel@cs.unm.edu"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">angel@cs.unm.edu</a><br
class="">
505-453-4944 (cell) <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel">http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel</a></div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
</div>
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Jan 13, 2023, at 11:09 AM, Gary Schiltz
<<a href="mailto:gary@naturesvisualarts.com"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">gary@naturesvisualarts.com</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div class="">Steve, thanks for the perspective. It's
interesting that the authors<br class="">
of the paper dub the period of 1950-1975 as the "Golden
Age" and then<br class="">
go on to point out how badly Latin America has failed to
exploit it. I<br class="">
haven't read the paper yet (only your quote from it),
but it seems<br class="">
they are defining a golden age globally, not for Latin
America. I<br class="">
guess that would be the post-WWII era.<br class="">
<br class="">
I'll try to break out of these darned bubbles :-)<br
class="">
<br class="">
On Fri, Jan 13, 2023 at 12:33 PM Steve Smith <<a
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class=""><br class="">
Gary -<br class="">
<br class="">
Thanks for the on-the-ground response from the "middle
of the world". I realize(d) you (like all of us) live
in a bubble and I appreciate your acknowledging the
two impinging bubbles you recognize yourself to be
circumscribed by: 1) retired folk who avoid deep
political thought; 2) locals without the education or
experience to see much beyond the local community.<br
class="">
<br class="">
In some ways this feels like a template for many of
our own bubbles... sort of a 1)
personal/professional/socioeconomic bubble; 2)
geolocal bubble . There are probably more and they
may or may not overlap significantly. I use FriAM to
try to force some of my own bubbles to impinge on one
another, or perhaps to explore the interstices between
the otherwise natural impingements...<br class="">
<br class="">
I'm not a regular (only dropped in once or twice)
vFriam participant, and I don't know about Merle, I
think she may make a better effort than I and could
probably be drawn into making an appearance for a
topic *like* this if you were interested. I'll ping
her offline as well to see if she might be
interested/available to vFriAM up on this (or some
vaguely related) topic next week?<br class="">
<br class="">
- Steve<br class="">
<br class="">
Regarding "the Golden Age of Latin America", I found
this (working) paper which moderately reflects what I
think of as "the Golden Age". I think they
acknowledge (and maybe even explain) what you have
experienced/observed/believe about "keeping Latin
America dirt poor":<br class="">
<br class="">
On the Latin American Growth Paradox: A Hindsight into
the Golden Age<br class="">
Giorgia Barboni∗and Tania Treibich† November 12, 2010<br
class="">
<a
href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89360/1/64049434X.pdf"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89360/1/64049434X.pdf</a><br
class="">
<br class="">
<br class="">
In 1950, Latin American countries’ capabilities were
promising: however, some other countries starting at
the same level, or even below, made a better use of
their initial endowments. At the time, countries like
Argentina and Venezuela had a higher GDP per capita
than other European countries belonging to the
developed world today (Italy, Spain...) and many East
Asian countries that have managed to catch up with the
Western World in the last decades (see Figure 1
below). Indeed, the data on GDP per capita over the
last 60 years reveals that since 1950, Latin American
countries have diverged from the Western World. With a
GDP growth rate between 4 and 5 percent, they have
fallen behind Europe which economy has reached a
20,000 dollars per capita level today. The Latin
American countries grew slowly until 1980 and, from
then, their GDP per capita growth has been stationary.
The only exception would be Chile which after a period
of slow growth started an expansion period in 1980s,
converging to the highest levels. Asian countries in
comparison followed a convergence path, starting way
lower and reaching the European levels of GDP per
capita after fifty years of catching up. Castaldi et
al. (2008(16)) point out that this divergence can also
be measured by the widening productivity gap between
Latin America and the international frontier in the
last decades. Other indicators of education and
science may also support the hypothesis that back
then, Latin American countries had a big potential for
convergence. Argentina, for example, was thought to be
so promising that it could join the innovators’ club
(Castaldi et al., 2008(16)). Then, what happened
during the Golden Age (1950-1975) that prevented South
American countries to exploit this potential for
growth?<br class="">
<br class="">
Which is naturally just one perspective, but provides
the basic idea of what said "Golden Age"
was/is/might-be.<br class="">
<br class="">
<br class="">
On 1/13/23 9:33 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:<br class="">
<br class="">
Despite living here in the middle of the world, I'm
afraid I don't<br class="">
give these ideas enogh serious thought these days. I
interact mostly<br class="">
with people who are retired and avoid deep political
thought, and with<br class="">
locals who don't have the education or experience to
see much beyond<br class="">
the local community. I REALLY MUST make myself make it
a priority to<br class="">
start attending the VFriam meetings on Thursday. It
might be valuable.<br class="">
I wonder, does Merle ever tune in? She seems the most
socially<br class="">
concerned (maybe even hopeful?) person on the list.<br
class="">
<br class="">
By the way, I wasn't aware that there ever was a
"Golden Age of Latin<br class="">
America". Care to elaborate? My view (shaped perhaps
too much by<br class="">
reading "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" in the
early 2000s) is<br class="">
that Latin America has always been dirt poor, just
like the more<br class="">
developed world wants it to be. First under the thumb
of the USA and<br class="">
USSR/Russia, and now China. No wonder dictators thrive
here.<br class="">
<br class="">
On Thu, Jan 12, 2023 at 1:31 PM Steve Smith
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"><sasmyth@swcp.com></a> wrote:<br class="">
<br class="">
GaryS, et al -<br class="">
<br class="">
I was recently trying to make a little more sense of
the larger sociopolitical situation across
central/south America and realized that your location
in Ecuador might provide some useful parallax.<br
class="">
<br class="">
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2023-elections-latin-america-preview">https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2023-elections-latin-america-preview</a><br
class="">
<br class="">
I was (not?) surprised to read that there was a
renewed interest in "regional integration". This
article references Lula and Obrador and several other
Latin American leaders who might be attempting a
broader ideological (and economic)
alignment/cooperation across the region.<br class="">
<br class="">
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/will-lula-achieve-regional-integration-in-latin-america/">https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/will-lula-achieve-regional-integration-in-latin-america/</a><br
class="">
<br class="">
With the unrest of the summer triggered? by
energy/fossil-fuel prices it seems like Ecuador has
become (temporarily, modestly) unbalanced which seems
like an opportunity for change, whether for better or
worse. I see in the first article (Elections
Preview) that Lasso has a very low approval rating and
the upcoming (February) elections might include/yield
a recall for him?<br class="">
<br class="">
<br class="">
I lived on the border of AZ/MX as a teen in the early
70s and the recent memory/residue of the Golden Age of
Latin America was still evident. The Mexican border
town (Agua Prieta) still had moderately grand
facilities and institutions (e.g. A huge library with
elaborate fountains on the grounds, etc) even though
they were not able to support them in that grandeur...
So I think I still have an ideation that Latin
America has many of the resources or (hidden) momentum
to achieve a resurgence of some sort.<br class="">
<br class="">
These reflections are partly triggered by this
interview/article produced by WBUR/Boston and
distributed via NPR:<br class="">
<br class="">
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/01/11/8-billion-earth-population-rise-human">https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/01/11/8-billion-earth-population-rise-human</a><br
class="">
<br class="">
Which reminded me that while we *do* have a
total-population problem with our 8B and rising
numbers (and 90+ % of land animal by mass being human
or human domesticates), the *distribution* of people,
and more to the point the demographic
fecundity/fertility distribution is very uneven and in
fact seems to be inversely proportional to various
features of human civilization ranging from GDP to
education to technological development. Some (like
DJT) turn this into a judgement and a reason for
resentment/fear (e.g. S*hole country labels) but
others have a more progressive view. An excerpt from
the WBUR interview/article:<br class="">
<br class="">
Jennifer Sciubba: "We're moving toward this aging and
shrinking world, and we are worried because we can't
sustain that same huge level of economic growth in the
past. And we do need to think about what that might
look like, so we can look relook at concepts like
retirement. We can look at concepts like what is work
life. We also, though, have to start thinking about
family and marriage. And, you know, we're talking
about a paradigmatic shift.<br class="">
<br class="">
"That means we have to look at the world through a
completely different lens than we've looked at the
world in the past. But all of our theories about the
good life, our economic theories, our political
theories, those were all developed under conditions of
population growth and economic growth, as William
said. So it's really hard to get a paradigmatic shift
and say, what if we try to look at the world in a
different way? Can we look at an aging and shrinking
society as a good thing? Can we look at growing older
individually as a good thing? We've not been good at
that. And so we're kind of taking that negativity and
applying it at the societal level."<br class="">
<br class="">
This passage specifically references aging (individual
and population) but there are other references to
economic/technological disparities.<br class="">
<br class="">
I also defer here to others who have an international
POV (e.g. Pieter in South Africa, Sarbajit in India,
Jochen in Germany, and I believe we have someone from
Cuba, I think we lost (off the list) Mohammed from
Egypt a few years ago, etc.) as well. We are not a
very demographicly representative group here but still
offer a somewhat broad samplying by some measures.<br
class="">
<br class="">
I realize this is yet another of my rambly maunderings
but I'd be curious to hear what others are
observing/thinking about these issues in this current
time of global flux.<br class="">
<br class="">
- Steve<br class="">
<br class="">
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