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<p>I coined a new subject to relieve DaveW from having to see his
name over and over... <br>
</p>
<p>I'm sympathetic with *all* the points of view expressed here,
though not always simultaneously ;)<br>
</p>
<p>As <i>homo faber</i> and <i>homo sapiens</i>, it is natural
that we have instincts and cultural habits around "making" and
"thinking" our way out of our predicaments and it might not be too
surprising if there were a (collective) Dunning-Kruger effect in
our society helping to drive us forward from being the early
hominids whose ability with broken stones and sharpened sticks to
the mutual-assured-destruction/climate-collapse collective
creatures that we have become.</p>
<p>It is deep in my nature to want to fiddle with things (make) and
ideas (think) whether experience tells me that it turns out well
or not. I am probably more likely to "muck" with things than
many here, so I am (therefore) sympathetic with ideas which in the
extreme become things like "geoengineering" and "post/trans
humanism" and it is hard for me NOT to cheer every SpaceX launch
and the science-fiction trope of humanity spreading to fill the
solar system (Moon, Mars, Main/Kuiper/Trojan Asteroids, ice/gas
giant moons, cum-Dyson Sphere) and the Galaxy(ies)! <br>
</p>
<p>Yet, I cringe a little every time we throw over some "evil we
(think we) know" for some mirage of a bit of "pie in the sky" (pie
in your eye?). This makes me *such* a wet-blanket neo-luddite
on virtually every topic, whilst being a bit of a split
personality at the same time, cheering/hurrying toward the
inevitable moment when "the next cool thing" becomes "WTF, didn't
anyone think before they did that?" answered by "it seemed like a
good idea at the time"!<br>
</p>
<p>But I also have a fondness for ideating on what it would mean for
humans to "slow our roll" and "look inward" (both personally and
collectively) long enough for the earth-systems we are running
over/overdriving to catch up. But it might be deep in our
"survival instincts" to optimize and leverage at every opportunity
even if sometimes it looks like we are nothing but techno-utopian
lemmings diving off a cliff of complexity of our own making. "Be
fecund, multiply, and innovate like crazy!"<br>
</p>
<p>It can be hard (or weirding) to live across this spectrum and
therefore tend to time-multiplex between those extremes, trying to
remember enough of one while I'm experiencing the other for some
of the "tempering" DaveW references.<br>
</p>
<p>We talk here often of predictive vs explanatory models, of
epistimology and ontologies. And in this thread "what would
change your mind?" which is similar to "how do you know what you
know?". My own answer to the first question is roughly "I won't
know until it happens" and the second is "I don't know, but I am
always interested in finding out (more)"</p>
<p>Mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/19/23 8:52 AM, Prof David West
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:6a349ae6-714e-49e1-94cc-d7d7cbbf0c32@app.fastmail.com">
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<div style="font-family:Arial;">My optimism is tempered, and less
than Pieters.<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><i>"When we contemplate the
shocking derangement of human affairs which now prevails in
most civilized countries, including our own, even the best
minds are puzzled and uncertain in their attempts to grasp the
situation.The world seems to demand a moral and economic
regeneration which it is dangerous to postpone, but as yet
impossible to imagine, let alone direct.</i><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><i>We have unprecedented
conditions to deal with and novel adjustments to make—there
can be no doubt of that. We also have a great stock of
scientific knowledge unknown to our grandfathers with which to
operate. So novel are the conditions, so copious the
knowledge, that we must undertake the arduous task of
reconsidering a great part of the opinions about man and his
relations to his fellow-men which have been handed down to us
by previous generations who lived in far other conditions and
who possessed far less information about the world and
themselves.</i><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><b><i>We have, however, first to
create an unprecedented attitude of mind to cope with
unprecedented conditions, and to utilize unprecedented
knowledge. This is the preliminary. and most difficult, step
to be taken—far more difficult that one would suspect who
fails to realize that in order to take it we must overcome
inveterate natural tendencies and artificial habits of long
standing. How are we to put ourselves in a position to think
of thiigs that we not only never though of before, but are
most reluctant to question? In short, how are we to rid
ourselves of our fond prejudices and <u>open our minds</u>?</i></b>"<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">Those words are from someone few
have heard of: James Harvey Robinson, from his book <i>The Mind
in the Making</i> published, originally, in 1921. (republished
in 2017 by Vigeo Press)<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">The optimism of Altman you quoted
is, in my opinion, possible only if we can "open our minds" and
shed antiquated minds and counter-productive modes of thinking.<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">Robinson, by the way does not
propose an alternative, per se, but does an excellent job of
baring the various kinds of thinking and their origins fro the
"savage mind" to the scientific revolution.<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div>On Thu, Jan 19, 2023, at 4:17 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style="">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><b><span class="font" style="font-family:comic sans ms,
sans-serif;">Sadly, there are some hidden elements to
all that techno-optimism.</span></b><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Yes, sadly the world is unequal and those at the bottom
of the economic ladder just don't get a good deal.<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>On the positive side, looking back at the history of
mankind there is evidence that it is now better to live
than ever in the past for the large majority of humankind.
This is true even though it is the sad truth that
it's very far from perfect; human suffering is a
reality, Glen's comment is sad but true.<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>The question of course is whether it will continue to
go better?<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>It's just impossible to know the future. One person can
believe it'll go better in the future, another that it'll
be worse, each with tons of good arguments.<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I for one, embrace the optimism of Sam Altman, just for
completeness I repeat his quote and give the reference
again.<br>
</div>
<div><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="font"
style="font-family:Montserrat, sans-serif;"><span
class="size" style="font-size:12px;">"Intelligence
and energy have been the fundamental limiters
towards most things we want. A future where these
are not the limiting reagents will be radically
different, and can be amazingly better."<br>
</span></span></span>Taken from <a
href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms</a> : <span
style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="font"
style="font-family:Montserrat, sans-serif;"><span
class="size" style="font-size:12px;"> <br>
<br>
In conclusion, yes I agree with Glen that there are
sadly hidden elements to all the techno-optimism.
but this does not dampen my enthusiasm for the
future triggered by abundant intelligence and
energy.</span></span></span></div>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div class="qt-gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="qt-gmail_attr">On Wed, 18 Jan 2023 at
21:08, glen <<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="qt-gmail_quote"
style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,
204,
204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1px;padding-left:1ex;">
<div>Sadly, there are some hidden elements to all that
techno-optimism. E.g.<br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> <a
href="https://nitter.cz/billyperrigo/status/1615682180201447425#m"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://nitter.cz/billyperrigo/status/1615682180201447425#m</a><br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> On 1/18/23 00:40, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<br>
</div>
<div> > I totally agree that realizable behavior is
what matters.<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > The elephant in the room is whether AI (and
robotics of course) will (not to replace but to) be able
to do better than humans in all respects, including come
up with creative solutions to not only the world's most
pressing problems but also small creative things like
writing poems, and then to do the mental and physical
tasks required to provide goods and services to all in
the world,<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > Sam Altman said there are two things that will
shape our future; intelligence and energy. If we have
real abundant intelligence and energy, the world will be
very different indeed.<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > To quote Sam Altmen at <a
href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms</a>
<<a
href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/intelligence-energy-sam-altmans-technology-predictions-for-2020s/articleshow/86088731.cms</a>>
:<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > "intelligence and energy have been the
fundamental limiters towards most things we want. A
future where these are not the limiting reagents will be
radically different, and can be amazingly better."<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > On Wed, 18 Jan 2023 at 03:06, Marcus Daniels
<<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > Definitions are all fine and good, but
realizable behavior is what matters. Analog computers
will have imperfect behavior, and there will be leakage
between components. A large network of transistors or
neurons are sufficiently similar for my purposes. The
unrolling would be inside a skull, so somewhat isolated
from interference.<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > -----Original Message-----<br>
</div>
<div> > From: Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>>
On Behalf Of glen<br>
</div>
<div> > Sent: Tuesday, January 17, 2023 2:11 PM<br>
</div>
<div> > To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
</div>
<div> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] NickC channels DaveW<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > I don't quite grok that. A crisp definition
of recursion implies no interaction with the outside
world, right? If you can tolerate the ambiguity in that
statement, the artifacts laying about from an unrolled
recursion might be seen and used by outsiders. That's
not to say a trespasser can't have some sophisticated
intrusion technique. But unrolled seems more "open" to
family, friends, and the occasional acquaintance.<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> > On 1/17/23 13:37, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br>
</div>
<div> > > I probably didn't pay enough
attention to the thread some time ago on serialization,
but to me recursion is hard to distinguish from an
unrolling of recursion.<br>
</div>
<div> > <br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> <br>
</div>
<div> -- <br>
</div>
<div> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ<br>
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