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<p>In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10
samples of 5 variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did
with an NREL colleague in 2019 using the World3 Model we found a
very ad-hoc observation that among the various ideas of what was a
"good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person or other vernacular ideas
of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them involved a
sooner-rather-than-later population collapse. <br>
</p>
<p>To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more
particularly and the World3 model in particular I wasn't very
inclined to take the quantitative results of any of very seriously
but it was an interesting (but unsurprising) qualitative result?</p>
<p>For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to
dork with yourself:</p>
<p> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://insightmaker.com/insight/2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://insightmaker.com/insight/2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation</a></p>
<p>FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent
admission to a hospice program... looking at what it might have
meant if we'd followed his lead back around 1978. Worth noting,
I (foolishly by hindsight) helped run him out of town to be
replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill baby drill, burn baby
burn!"<br>
</p>
<p>And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits
to Growth project/idea/model/results:</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/yale-publication-1.pdf"><img
moz-do-not-send="false"
src="cid:part1.SInb8Kfu.A7ZYzAJX@swcp.com" alt="" width="886"
height="567" border="0"></a><br>
</p>
<p>Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as
Usual) represent increased death rates rather than reduced
fertility rates.<br>
</p>
<p>The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what
decisions anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our
friends, whatever policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our
imagination) is a much trickier one based on myriad
principles/values that likely few of us share unless we choose a
high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue conception).
My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one sister
which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself.
Each of my 2 have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have
chosen to be childless. Most of my peers who were from large
sibling groups have at best a replacement cohort among their
children and nieces/nephews which are headed toward a NPG in the
following generation. <br>
</p>
<p>My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to
reproduce, I need to get out of the way which means unless their
other grandparents don't have the grace of knocking off by the
time they want to do that, then it is up to me... no open-ended
life-extension unless I expect to leave the planet (hear my pain
Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated to be a Sol
model and even considering it really challenges the very
structure/concept of the World3 SD model! <br>
</p>
<p>Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that
we might be on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into
NPG, but not until we pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them
factor in the non-linear effects of possible/likely runaway global
warming or species collapse.<br>
</p>
<p><img moz-do-not-send="true"
src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/World_population_%28UN%29.svg/467px-World_population_%28UN%29.svg.png"
alt="" width="467" height="414"></p>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:3345ACE8-E5E6-4B93-8D78-9440612AD445@santafe.edu">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realgnd.org/people">https://www.realgnd.org/people</a>
(or a position paper somewhere in their writings).
On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard.
I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are committed, good people.
But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay focused on the task.
I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before.
Eric
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:gary@naturesvisualarts.com"><gary@naturesvisualarts.com></a> wrote:
A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. I lean only slightly toward the latter.
On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com"><wimberly3@gmail.com></a> wrote:
Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal?
On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"><gepropella@gmail.com></a> wrote:
We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop constructing people. >8^D
On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote:
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of time.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu">desmith@santafe.edu</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu"><mailto:desmith@santafe.edu></a>> wrote:
I think the keyword was young.
You can do that if the old men are all married to young women.
> On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"><mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com></a>> wrote:
>
> Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached.
>
> Sent from my Dumb Phone
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: The Hill <<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:thehill@email.thehill.com">thehill@email.thehill.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:thehill@email.thehill.com"><mailto:thehill@email.thehill.com></a>>
> Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST
> To: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:nthompson@clarku.edu">nthompson@clarku.edu</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:nthompson@clarku.edu"><mailto:nthompson@clarku.edu></a>
> Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
> Reply-To: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:emailteam@thehill.com">emailteam@thehill.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:emailteam@thehill.com"><mailto:emailteam@thehill.com></a>
>
>
> View Online
>
>
>
>
>
> Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
> More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, romantic and sexual life of the American male.
>
> Read the full story here.
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</pre>
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