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<p>I just learned about the work of De Finetti who apparently added
the notion of "subjective probability" to the extant body of
Bayesian probability at the time (1937). "Probability is not
about the system but rather about your knowledge of the system"...<br>
</p>
<p>From Wikipedia<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p><b>Bruno de Finetti</b><span> </span>(13 June 1906 – 20 July
1985) was an Italian<span> </span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_probabilists"
class="mw-redirect" title="List of probabilists"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">probabilist</a><span> </span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistician"
title="Statistician"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">statistician</a><span> </span>and<span> </span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuary" title="Actuary"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">actuary</a>,
noted for the "operational subjective" conception of<span> </span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability"
title="Probability"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">probability</a>.
The classic exposition of his distinctive theory is the 1937<span> </span><span
title="French-language text"><i lang="fr">"La prévision: ses
lois logiques, ses sources subjectives"</i></span>,<sup
id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"
style="line-height: 1; unicode-bidi: isolate; white-space: nowrap; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-size: 11.2px;"><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_de_Finetti#cite_note-1"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">[1]</a></sup><span> </span>which
discussed probability founded on the coherence of betting odds
and the consequences of<span> </span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchangeability"
class="mw-redirect" title="Exchangeability"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(51, 102, 204); background: none; overflow-wrap: break-word;">exchangeability</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1em;">On 1/26/24 11:46 AM, glen
wrote:</p>
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<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:9a61262b-5328-4a89-830b-2dc5e94bac02@gmail.com">The
concept of causality is so irritating. It's like some kind of
cafeteria style religion, where you pick and choose whatever
attribute you like and toss all the attributes you dislike. So
Marcus' identification of uncorrelated observations speaks
directly to SteveS' assignation of an independent trajectory
mutation at each pin in the game. The trajectory isn't random, but
each turn in the trajectory is random. Similar with the difference
between determinism and prestatability. Similar with the
difference between causal chains versus causal networks.
<br>
<br>
All this is simply to torque my arm out of place patting myself on
the back again. What matters is the *scope*, not some penultimate
reduction to some Grand Unified Theory/Philosophy of the world.
Nobody can say anything coherent without mentioning the scope of
whatever it was they said ... the language within which they said
it, etc.
<br>
<br>
<br>
On 1/26/24 07:37, Steve Smith wrote:
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">I've only dropped a few Pachinko balls in
my life, but I couldn't help agonizing over the trajectory of
each one, feeling as if at every bounce they were at risk of
"breaking bad" (or "good")... since many here are at least
part-time simulants (as Glen I believe refers to himself), even
the most aggressive attempts at introducing "random" (noise,
annealing, etc.) either degenerate to "pseudo-random" or engage
with a physical system (e.g. sample a pixel-value from a webcam
trained on a lava lamp) which of course is deterministic if
arbitrarily complex.
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
On 1/26/24 08:14, Marcus Daniels wrote:
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">One of the usual claims is that science
couldn’t occur without independent observations. I would
co-opt Glen’s rhetoric here about parallax. What’s need is
largely uncorrelated observations.
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
</blockquote>
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