<div dir="ltr"><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, May 6, 2024 at 1:29 PM Nicholas Thompson <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div>Dear Friammers, and some others,</div><div><br></div><div>This a NerdPak, a collection of files that you would need to have before you if you were going to think about something, but were to busy to assemble. You're Welcome. <br></div><div><br></div><div>
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</span>Mesoscale Discussion 0649<span></span></span></p>
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</span>NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<span></span></span></p>
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</span>1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Panhandle<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely <span></span></span></p>
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</span>Valid 061647Z - 061845Z<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent<span></span></span></p>
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</span>SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this<span></span></span></p>
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</span>portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few<span></span></span></p>
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</span>long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of<span></span></span></p>
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</span>producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.<span></span></span></p>
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</span>DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging<span></span></span></p>
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</span>westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass<span></span></span></p>
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</span>continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming<span></span></span></p>
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</span>weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where<span></span></span></p>
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</span>boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.<span></span></span></p>
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</span>The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to<span></span></span></p>
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</span>occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX<span></span></span></p>
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</span>Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to<span></span></span></p>
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</span>deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large<span></span></span></p>
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</span>hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an<span></span></span></p>
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</span>intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several<span></span></span></p>
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</span>hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will<span></span></span></p>
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</span>yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track<span></span></span></p>
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</span>and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially<span></span></span></p>
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</span>with southern extent in western/central OK.<span></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif"><span> Below is the Amarillo Skew T. note the warm dry air aloft. This serves as a temporary cap to tstorm development which the storms will break through later in the afternoon. <br></span></p><img src="cid:ii_lvvc0gje3" alt="image.png" width="484" height="345"></div><div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif">Below, regional synoptic map showing pacific front to the
west, polar front to the east, dryline (close dotted contours of dewpoint).<span> </span>Note that the dew point increases some 50
degrees across the dryline.<span></span></p>
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</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>Below is the last crucial component, a jet streak moving in from the west. This will help evacuate the storms at the top and may also provide additional lift.<br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lvvcduag4" alt="image.png" width="484" height="391"><br></div><div><br></div><div>And finally, at 1.28 Mountain, the first storms developing over central KS</div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lvvcu8ju6" alt="image.png" width="484" height="386"><br><br>
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