<div dir="auto"><div>Nick</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I find your weather reports interesting and I learn a little from time to time. When I worked at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center we had some users (Kelvin Droegemeier et al) who were developing programs to explain weather phenomena. My impression was that if you started asking questions the answers involved very advanced CFD (computational fluid dynamics). I didn't have the time to master that so I just watch the weather reports on TV. I admire your courage in seeking a deeper understanding.</div><div><br></div><div dir="auto">Frank</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br><br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 4, 2024, 9:22 AM Nicholas Thompson <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div>Two things to notice about today's dryline:</div><div><br></div><div>First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister. Dewpoints approaching the 30's.</div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0hsfpk0" alt="image.png" width="446" height="341"><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very moist air is pushing into SE colorado. <br></div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0i79z51" alt="image.png" width="308" height="316"><br></div><div>Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface. The dry air to the west of it is "warmer" (higher THETA ) and should be over riding it at Amarillo. Let's see.</div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0irup52" alt="image.png" width="466" height="303"><br></div><div>Wow! There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed layer. Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade. Not very elevated. </div><div><br></div><div>I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this. <br></div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0jgp8c3" alt="image.png" width="276" height="252"><br></div><div>Well, not a whole lot, actually, although the text forecast is a bit more dramatic than the graphic one. <br></div><div><br></div><div>
<pre> There will be
the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be
rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
upscale into another MCS tonight.</pre>
</div><div>So ends your morning dryline report. <br></div><div><br></div><div>I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me. Since I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am unlikely to stop. So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and, since I am clearly casting my seeds upon barren ground. These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms. <br></div><div><br></div><div>Nick <br></div></div>
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