<div dir="ltr"><div>Hi, everybody.<br></div><div>\</div><div>Think of this as your morning Shipping News.</div><div><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">The dry line has tightened and is set up along the NM TX border as a thermal low forms over northern Mexico. Cold front intruding in to NE NM sets up potential triple point where three fronts come together. <br></blockquote><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx3cg0fi4" alt="image.png" width="484" height="401"><br></div><div><br></div><div>State map makes the exact position of the dry line even more evident with southward flowing low dewpoint air to the West and northward flowing moist air to the east. </div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx3dkrrn5" alt="image.png" width="484" height="334"><br><br></div><div><br></div><div>Today, the Storms Prediction Center doesn't make a whole lot of this, except an increase in the possibility of T-storms across most of NM today. But apparently, the advection of high THETA-e (warm, moist) air is just beginning, because storms are forecast over the weekend. . <br></div><div><br></div><div>
<div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Today</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Sunny, with a high near 94. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. </span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Tonight</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. </span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Friday</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Isolated
thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East wind
5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of
precipitation is 20%.</span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Friday Night</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Isolated
showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then isolated showers between 9pm
and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 5 to
15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is
20%.</span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Saturday</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Isolated
showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near
91. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance
of precipitation is 20%.</span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Saturday Night</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Scattered
showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then scattered showers between
9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.</span></font></div></div><div style="margin-left:40px"><div><font size="1"><b style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Sunday</b></font></div><div><font size="1"><span style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif">Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.</span></font></div></div><div><div>.</div><div>That's it for the Morning Shipping News. Southerly Gales West of the Orkneys. <br></div><div><br></div><div>NIck <br></div></div>
</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 11:21 AM Nicholas Thompson <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div>Two things to notice about today's dryline:</div><div><br></div><div>First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister. Dewpoints approaching the 30's.</div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0hsfpk0" alt="image.png" width="446" height="341"><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very moist air is pushing into SE colorado. <br></div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0i79z51" alt="image.png" width="308" height="316"><br></div><div>Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface. The dry air to the west of it is "warmer" (higher THETA ) and should be over riding it at Amarillo. Let's see.</div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0irup52" alt="image.png" width="466" height="303"><br></div><div>Wow! There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed layer. Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade. Not very elevated. </div><div><br></div><div>I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this. <br></div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lx0jgp8c3" alt="image.png" width="276" height="252"><br></div><div>Well, not a whole lot, actually, although the text forecast is a bit more dramatic than the graphic one. <br></div><div><br></div><div>
<pre> There will be
the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be
rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
upscale into another MCS tonight.</pre>
</div><div>So ends your morning dryline report. <br></div><div><br></div><div>I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me. Since I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am unlikely to stop. So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and, since I am clearly casting my seeds upon barren ground. These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms. <br></div><div><br></div><div>Nick <br></div></div>
</blockquote></div>