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<p>Marcus -</p>
<p>I totally defer to your brand of "morbid fascination". I have
my own deep streak but I think it is interrupted by a
cross-cutting vein of hopium-rich optimism. Your pithy "worst
case/best case" ideations are exquisite.</p>
<p>I will argue (against my own technophobic/neoLuddite nature) that
you might be too optimistic when you refer to it as a "last
chapter of my life"... <br>
</p>
<p>The technoutopian movement we have all had our part in very
likely may sweep you into a psuedo-uncountable string of birthdays
out into the future. <br>
</p>
<p>Following your arc, however I agree that whether it is climate
catastrophe or societal collapse may take most if not all of us
out before our self-trimming telomeres and rundown of
endocrine/metabolic systems bring us to heel as God (nod to DaveW)
intended somewhere during the begetting, begatting and begotting
of the long-lived Old Testament Patriarchs if not as he booted
(does God wear Boots?) us out of his Walled Garden. <br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/31/24 9:20 AM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">An upside I
could see of another Trump presidency is that economic
productivity in the United States would further consolidate.
States and municipalities would evolve more defensive
mechanisms to preserve productivity and health of its
businesses and residents. Areas that did not, would
continue their downhill slide. As it became clear the
national democracy didn’t work, the federal budget would
become increasingly restricted. Medicare and Social
Security would fall being replaced by state-level
programs. At some point the U.S. starts defaulting on its
debt. What’s not clear to me is how to break up the
military and the nuclear arsenal. (About now I bet
Ukraine regrets their decision..) I could see that
functions like the FAA or the FDA could be coordinated. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">My sense is
that, well, about 50% of the population in the United States
just isn’t worth the trouble. AI is going to make a lot of
jobs unnecessary. Maybe Trump catalyzes a dramatic change
in society? It could all be a fascinating, if terrifying,
final chapter in my life?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Friam <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Pieter
Steenekamp<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, October 31, 2024 7:38 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] What if Trump Wins?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Case for Trump<br>
<br>
I'm not suggesting that Trump is a model leader; he has many
moral shortcomings. And yes, if we view the U.S. President
as the de facto leader of the West, it's fair to ask: Can’t
we do better? I also won’t debate whether someone like
Harris might make a better president. My point is this: If
Trump is elected, might there be areas where his unique
style could actually make him an effective leader?<br>
<br>
One thing Trump can do is negotiate. As a potential leader
of the West, there are benefits he could bring in
negotiating with adversaries, including BRICS countries. Let
me explain using an analogy: the character James Dean played
in Rebel Without a Cause. In a game of chicken, Dean's
character pretended to be drunk, making his opponent believe
he was reckless—eventually causing them to back down.<br>
<br>
Trump has a history of employing similar tactics. For
instance, when building in New York, he once proposed a
design that violated height limits. When this was denied, he
proposed a much uglier building that followed the code.
Ultimately, he got approval to build his original design,
with the height exemption he wanted. Whether or not he would
have gone through with his threat is unclear, but he got
what he wanted by throwing a calculated tantrum.<br>
<br>
In the same way, Trump's current claims about what he would
do internationally could simply be part of his proven
negotiation tactics. World leaders see him as “reckless” in
the same way James Dean’s opponents did, making them
reconsider their own moves. <br>
<br>
Ultimately, Trump may be an unconventional choice, but he is
a skilled negotiator—one who could, in his own way, secure
some advantageous outcomes for the West.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 13:07, Santafe
<<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC
1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">The newspapers, and any number of
writers, do a good job spelling all this out.<br>
<br>
I have this frustrated feeling that doing this misses the
point that is driving the dynamic. <br>
<br>
One of the good things that Paxton emphasizes about what
drives fascist movements from the ground up is the
determined rejection of thought in favor of feeling.
Hannah Arendt goes on at length to get the same thing
across. <br>
<br>
I envision it (with some discomfort about misfits of the
metaphor) as being like a social counterpart to
berserking, or (even less apt) elephants going into
musth. It’s not even “rage” per se, but something about
as destructive, only chosen.<br>
<br>
I see the various repubs that make communities with the
dems, and speak as if they hope this will “accomplish”
some “change”. For the Bannon-followers, I feel like I
know exactly what this looks like. It is the various
subcategories of hated ones self-identifying, and sewing
on their sleeves a marker of “establishment characters”.
Bannon preaches to the mob: “You see; they’re scared! We
have them on the run. If you’ll just push a little harder
we can corner them, and we’ll give them the beating of
their lives. Imagine how powerful you will feel. They’ll
want you to stop, and they won’t be faking it, but they
won’t be able to make you stop. Won’t that be the best
feeling you ever had? You’ll be able to feel, finally,
that you actually exist.” (Bannon doesn’t put in the
final line; I put that in.)<br>
<br>
<br>
I guess I don’t want to argue against the things people
are trying to do (Michael Luttig, various Cheneys, and
whoever). The voting block that can cause the calamity is
certainly a coalition of non-identical groups. If we
think there are categories of Spontaneous Racists and
Stimulated Racists (to borrow a term from spectroscopy),
the part of the voting bloc that is made up of the
spontaneous ones may not be all that large; maybe 20%?
Not as large as the evangelicals (35–40%?, with some
overlap). There presumably are some genuinely
out-to-lunch types, and maybe one can imagine that talking
has some place with them, which could be enough to move
the margin of this winner-take-all event we are stuck
with. And then the ones that can think enough to be
strategically greedy or hoarding, but not circumspect
enough to have every cared or understood how the society
they suck from actually functions. _Maybe_ talking could
have some effect with them. <br>
<br>
<br>
I have thought, too, since some NYT article by a guy from
Bucks county PA going home, and thinking that the trump
voters actively wanted “the trump vibe; the meanness,
bullying and name-calling, etc.” that this is an
expression of a certain component of nihilism. <br>
<br>
Whoever wrote the screenplay for Apocalypse Now was very
good. Kurtz’s line in one of the soliloquays:<br>
<br>
“Have you ever wondered what it would be like to be
completely free? Free from the judgments of others; even
of yourself?”<br>
<br>
There is a core of nihilism in that freedom. What would
it feel like to go punch somebody for no particular
reason, except that I felt like it? Burn whatever some
people mean by “the bonds of human affection” that
“include us in humanity”. Yes, I sort of understand (and
this probably is important) that whoever I hit will now
know he has to fear me, and he may even dislike or hate
me, and it may be irreversible. But if he can’t do
anything to me, why do I care? In fact, if he wants to
and still can’t, even better: that will give me that
experience of power that I imagine must be so nice to
feel, but that if it is, I certainly don’t feel now.<br>
<br>
It’s not as simple a category as all that, because they
are willing to do this only if they believe they are
members in the mob. Whether that’s community or just a
release from the requirements of either responsibility or
courage I can’t say.<br>
<br>
<br>
But I do think that, in the U.S., a crucial conversion
that Arendt articulates, from a mere mass into a mob, has
now been achieved, and the mob is awake and self-aware as
a mob. It took a sociopath to go charging out across the
minefield that normal people are too chicken to venture
into, to show how far out the actual shooting-boundary is,
beyond where they had drawn back before. But now that the
boundary has been identified, that’s public information,
and the others don’t need to be sociopaths to use it. It
changes the problem, because there are a lot more of them
than of the true sociopaths.<br>
<br>
<br>
I agree, we would like to first get through the next week
without an acute disaster. But the system organization
has passed through a re-arrangement by now. I would like
to know what a program looks like to reverse that, without
having to go through the whole Hodgkin-Huxley circuit of
the society’s destroying itself before there is enough
exhaustion to try for a reset. Since, under the
conditions that are likely by that time, it’s not clear
what kind of “reset” might even be available. <br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Oct 31, 2024, at 4:59 AM, Russ Abbott <<a
href="mailto:russ.abbott@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">russ.abbott@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
> <br>
> To help prevent such a disaster, let's do our best to
help people imagine what the world would look like if
Trump wins.<br>
> <br>
> For example, Trump has said that one of his
priorities would be to throw off the occupying army of
invading immigrants and criminals. Ask people to think
about how this occupying force is currently ruining
people's lives. I suspect that very few people have any
experience of such a noxious invading force. Most people
find their lives relatively peaceful. But if Trump begins
to implement his plan to throw off this occupying force,
the streets would be full of armed deportation agents
chasing down the evil occupying forces. Gunfights would
erupt between the deportation agents and immigrants
running for their lives. Many of us would be caught in the
crossfire--or holed up at home trying to avoid the
bullets. Ask people to imagine such a world and to compare
it to the relatively peaceful world we now occupy. Ask
them if that is really what we want and if that is what we
will be voting for next Tuesday.<br>
> <br>
> -- Russ Abbott <br>
> Professor Emeritus, Computer Science<br>
> California State University, Los Angeles<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 11:48<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
> Here in Europe most people are indeed worried that
the candidate who is a convicted felon and wears orange
makeup will become president again. Have his fans all
forgotten he mainly played golf, praised dictators and
created tax cuts for the superrich? But there is also a
bit of hope that a woman will stop him this time. <br>
> <br>
> A hundred years ago there was already a group in
America that hated Blacks and immigrants. As Timothy Egan
writes in his book "A Fever in the Heartland: The Ku Klux
Klan's Plot to Take Over America, and the Woman Who
Stopped Them" one of the Ku Klux Klan leaders was a
charismatic charlatan named D.C. Stephenson. He was
eventually brought down by a woman, Madge Oberholtzer, who
would reveal his cruelties, and whose testimony stopped
the Klan. When Europe fell into darkness, America was able
to stop the con man. I hope it can do it again.<br>
> <a
href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/</a><br>
> <br>
> -J.<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> -------- Original message --------<br>
> From: Nicholas Thompson <<a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>><br>
> Date: 10/30/24 10:54 PM (GMT+01:00)<br>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Evolutionary transitions between
egalitarian and despotic societies<br>
> <br>
> Hi, Jochen, <br>
> <br>
> Not sarcastic. It was to show the exploratory
nature of such models. I do believe that the most
mysterious feature of charisma is the behavior of the
charasmees. However this election turns out, almost half
the country is about to willingly offer up it's political
autonomy to a potential dictator. Whatever my faults, I
try, try, TRY not to do sarcasm. I do wonder if we could
build models that explore under what circumstances it is
better for everybody to do SOMETHING then to take the
time to pool information and do the right thing. <br>
> <br>
> In general evolutionary history has no actual power
to constrain our present behavior. Our behavior is
constrainted by present events and present behavioral
repertoire. <br>
> <br>
> Nick <br>
> <br>
> On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 2:37<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
> In her book "The Social Instinct" Nichola Raihani
mentions in chapter 17 the article "An evolutionary model
explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to
leadership and despotism" from Simon T. Powers as a model
how despotic regimes and dominance hierarchies have
evolved in early human societies.<br>
> <a
href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349</a><br>
> <br>
> It reminds me of our recent discussion triggered by
Nick's (sarcastic?) proposal to explain parts of the MAGA
movement in terms of evolutionary psychology. Simon T.
Powers is an interdisciplinary researcher working at the
University of Sterling<br>
> <a href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555</a><br>
> <br>
> A more recent article from him about "Modelling
transitions between egalitarian, dynamic leader and
absolutist power structures" can be found here<br>
> <a
href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639</a><br>
> <br>
> -J.<br>
> <br>
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> Nicholas S. Thompson<br>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology<br>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
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