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Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKvaiN_24w2iKj0pbCngpXFka_hQ1ADTjJs9kP_rz1XbA@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">Isn't bullying and being a good negotiator two
different things? One could be a bully and also a skilled
negotiator, right?<br>
</div>
</blockquote>
I'm not sure effective bullies bother to be particular effective at
other negotiation strategies, but there is no logical
contradiction... but is "bullying" anything more than "negotiation
by other means"? Clauswitz rolls in his grave.<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKvaiN_24w2iKj0pbCngpXFka_hQ1ADTjJs9kP_rz1XbA@mail.gmail.com">
<div dir="ltr">I'm not an expert on Trump, so some of my
assumptions may be off. For example, I assume Trump had a
successful run as a property developer in New York. To achieve
that, it seems reasonable that he would need to be effective at,
among other things, negotiating. Whether he achieved this by
being a bully or not, I can’t say.<br>
</div>
</blockquote>
Lots of evidence that variations on bullying (from racial redlining
to disputing every contract payment to inflating values for loans
and lowballing them for taxation) are his only superpower in
"development".<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKvaiN_24w2iKj0pbCngpXFka_hQ1ADTjJs9kP_rz1XbA@mail.gmail.com">
<div dir="ltr"><br>
Being a "nice guy" isn't necessarily a requirement for becoming
a successful world leader. Success as a world leader requires a
long list of skills, and I’m not arguing that Trump would
perform better than Harris—I genuinely don’t know. My point is
simply that having a background in managing complex property
development projects likely involves successful negotiations and
skill in playing the game of chicken, both of which might be
valuable.<br>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>What a shame we are back to "brinksmanship" at the top of our
list (again?). Putin (plays?) crazy, Kim Jong Un plays crazy,
Trump plays crazy.</p>
<p>Trump may be an effective "leader" by these terms, but where will
he "lead" the country/world? He lead quite a few businesses into
bankruptcy and his most successful gig was Reality TV bully which
he also bailed on as it was failing... ratings were plenty down
before he did a tricky handoff to Schwartzenegger for the final
fall. <br>
</p>
<p>I agree with/defer to DaveW's idea that many people (order
49.9999% of our voters?) find some kind of identification within
his projected image, his promises, his affect. It's a pretty
good tricky trick... like good ole "tricky Dick" in another era.
Or PT Barnum. You *don't* need to fool *all* the people *all* of
the time?</p>
<p>Winter is coming? (first freeze here last night)<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKvaiN_24w2iKj0pbCngpXFka_hQ1ADTjJs9kP_rz1XbA@mail.gmail.com">
<div dir="ltr"><br>
While being a bully could be a negative, it might belong on a
different line of that checklist.</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 23:08,
steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p><br>
</p>
<div> Jochen Fromm sed:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"> No, he is not a skilled negotiator
at all. </blockquote>
<p>Some people mistake (conflate?) bullying for
"negotiating". <br>
</p>
<p> Musk is also a bully and I doubt anyone who has done
business or tried to maintain personal relationships with
him (e.g. his children and their mothers, etc) will not
disagree. Trump's whole cohort/contingent are bullies of
various stripes (Stone and Bannon and Miller, Graham,
Jordan, MTG) as well. Effective bullies know how to defer
to bigger bullies, to deal efficiently with anyone
willing/able to stand up to them. They might do their
smackdown alone if their victim is weak, but easily gang
up with others to smack down stronger ones. Putin is
clearly a bully's bully and Trumps other hero/buddies come
in on the same ticket. I don't understand Xi or Modhi,
since Trump doesn't gush over them like he does Putin and
Orban and Kim Jong Un. <br>
</p>
<p>The (informal) expansion of BRICS to include a bit of the
Middle East may suggest more global stability that comes
with dynamic balances (1 superpower/coalition is either 1
too many or several too few?).</p>
<p>There is the argument "yes, he's a bully/@$$H*L3 but he's
OUR bully/A********) but that is perhaps the lamest
argument ever? I've made that mistake myself before and I
am totally over it.<br>
</p>
<p>Re: the "great removal"... while the Nazi anti-Semite
movement/action/horror is not an entirely wrong
comparison, but we here have several major poorly
thought-out but harsh purges in the recent history of the
US. The Japanese-American Internment (there was a camp
in Santa Fe where Solano Center is now) in the 40s, and
the depression era of "Mexican Repatriation" which was
somewhat indiscriminate about whether those "repatriated"
were US Citizens (many were), or had family/roots in
Mexico (many did not) or even spoke Spanish (many did
not). I believe most of this was in southern CA, as an
imagined way to reduce the stress on the job market and on
goods, but like the Japanese Internment it was at root
driven by racism, xenophobia and greed. Many merchant
class families from both groups had their businesses taken
over or bought out for pennies on the dollar by their
former friends/neighbors quite eagerly. All you had to do
was have the wrong surname and/or complexion and not
enough resources to resist. <br>
</p>
<p>Trump's "one day, one hour of extreme violence" and "I'll
only be a dictator on day one" smack way too much of
Krystalnacht for my taste...<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite">This is a myth, isn't it? He has no
patience for long and complicated negotiations. He
basically acts like a bully who demands loyalty, as James
Comey reported. He is only good at lying and cheating and
hiding that he cheated (which is the reason why he was
convicted). Even the MAGA motto is a lie: instead of
making America great he will ruin it. Like Captain Ahab in
Moby Dick he will ruin everything on his quest for
personal revenge.
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">For example if he expels the Mexican
immigrants, nobody will clean the houses of the
superrich anymore. Or wash the dishes in hotels and
restaurants. This dirty work is typically done by
immigrants and people of color, all over the world. <br>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">-J.</div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0,0,0)"
align="left">
<div>-------- Original message --------</div>
<div>From: Pieter Steenekamp <a
href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><pieters@randcontrols.co.za></a>
</div>
<div>Date: 10/31/24 3:39 PM (GMT+01:00) </div>
<div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a>
</div>
<div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What if Trump Wins? </div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<div dir="ltr">The Case for Trump<br>
<br>
I'm not suggesting that Trump is a model leader; he has
many moral shortcomings. And yes, if we view the U.S.
President as the de facto leader of the West, it's fair
to ask: Can’t we do better? I also won’t debate whether
someone like Harris might make a better president. My
point is this: If Trump is elected, might there be areas
where his unique style could actually make him an
effective leader?<br>
<br>
One thing Trump can do is negotiate. As a potential
leader of the West, there are benefits he could bring in
negotiating with adversaries, including BRICS countries.
Let me explain using an analogy: the character James
Dean played in Rebel Without a Cause. In a game of
chicken, Dean's character pretended to be drunk, making
his opponent believe he was reckless—eventually causing
them to back down.<br>
<br>
Trump has a history of employing similar tactics. For
instance, when building in New York, he once proposed a
design that violated height limits. When this was
denied, he proposed a much uglier building that followed
the code. Ultimately, he got approval to build his
original design, with the height exemption he wanted.
Whether or not he would have gone through with his
threat is unclear, but he got what he wanted by throwing
a calculated tantrum.<br>
<br>
In the same way, Trump's current claims about what he
would do internationally could simply be part of his
proven negotiation tactics. World leaders see him as
“reckless” in the same way James Dean’s opponents did,
making them reconsider their own moves. <br>
<br>
Ultimately, Trump may be an unconventional choice, but
he is a skilled negotiator—one who could, in his own
way, secure some advantageous outcomes for the West.</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div class="gmail_attr" dir="ltr">On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at
13:07, Santafe <<a
href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex" class="gmail_quote">The
newspapers, and any number of writers, do a good job
spelling all this out.<br>
<br>
I have this frustrated feeling that doing this misses
the point that is driving the dynamic. <br>
<br>
One of the good things that Paxton emphasizes about
what drives fascist movements from the ground up is
the determined rejection of thought in favor of
feeling. Hannah Arendt goes on at length to get the
same thing across. <br>
<br>
I envision it (with some discomfort about misfits of
the metaphor) as being like a social counterpart to
berserking, or (even less apt) elephants going into
musth. It’s not even “rage” per se, but something
about as destructive, only chosen.<br>
<br>
I see the various repubs that make communities with
the dems, and speak as if they hope this will
“accomplish” some “change”. For the Bannon-followers,
I feel like I know exactly what this looks like. It
is the various subcategories of hated ones
self-identifying, and sewing on their sleeves a marker
of “establishment characters”. Bannon preaches to the
mob: “You see; they’re scared! We have them on the
run. If you’ll just push a little harder we can
corner them, and we’ll give them the beating of their
lives. Imagine how powerful you will feel. They’ll
want you to stop, and they won’t be faking it, but
they won’t be able to make you stop. Won’t that be
the best feeling you ever had? You’ll be able to
feel, finally, that you actually exist.” (Bannon
doesn’t put in the final line; I put that in.)<br>
<br>
<br>
I guess I don’t want to argue against the things
people are trying to do (Michael Luttig, various
Cheneys, and whoever). The voting block that can
cause the calamity is certainly a coalition of
non-identical groups. If we think there are
categories of Spontaneous Racists and Stimulated
Racists (to borrow a term from spectroscopy), the part
of the voting bloc that is made up of the spontaneous
ones may not be all that large; maybe 20%? Not as
large as the evangelicals (35–40%?, with some
overlap). There presumably are some genuinely
out-to-lunch types, and maybe one can imagine that
talking has some place with them, which could be
enough to move the margin of this winner-take-all
event we are stuck with. And then the ones that can
think enough to be strategically greedy or hoarding,
but not circumspect enough to have every cared or
understood how the society they suck from actually
functions. _Maybe_ talking could have some effect
with them. <br>
<br>
<br>
I have thought, too, since some NYT article by a guy
from Bucks county PA going home, and thinking that the
trump voters actively wanted “the trump vibe; the
meanness, bullying and name-calling, etc.” that this
is an expression of a certain component of nihilism.
<br>
<br>
Whoever wrote the screenplay for Apocalypse Now was
very good. Kurtz’s line in one of the soliloquays:<br>
<br>
“Have you ever wondered what it would be like to be
completely free? Free from the judgments of others;
even of yourself?”<br>
<br>
There is a core of nihilism in that freedom. What
would it feel like to go punch somebody for no
particular reason, except that I felt like it? Burn
whatever some people mean by “the bonds of human
affection” that “include us in humanity”. Yes, I sort
of understand (and this probably is important) that
whoever I hit will now know he has to fear me, and he
may even dislike or hate me, and it may be
irreversible. But if he can’t do anything to me, why
do I care? In fact, if he wants to and still can’t,
even better: that will give me that experience of
power that I imagine must be so nice to feel, but that
if it is, I certainly don’t feel now.<br>
<br>
It’s not as simple a category as all that, because
they are willing to do this only if they believe they
are members in the mob. Whether that’s community or
just a release from the requirements of either
responsibility or courage I can’t say.<br>
<br>
<br>
But I do think that, in the U.S., a crucial conversion
that Arendt articulates, from a mere mass into a mob,
has now been achieved, and the mob is awake and
self-aware as a mob. It took a sociopath to go
charging out across the minefield that normal people
are too chicken to venture into, to show how far out
the actual shooting-boundary is, beyond where they had
drawn back before. But now that the boundary has been
identified, that’s public information, and the others
don’t need to be sociopaths to use it. It changes the
problem, because there are a lot more of them than of
the true sociopaths.<br>
<br>
<br>
I agree, we would like to first get through the next
week without an acute disaster. But the system
organization has passed through a re-arrangement by
now. I would like to know what a program looks like
to reverse that, without having to go through the
whole Hodgkin-Huxley circuit of the society’s
destroying itself before there is enough exhaustion to
try for a reset. Since, under the conditions that are
likely by that time, it’s not clear what kind of
“reset” might even be available. <br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Oct 31, 2024, at 4:59 AM, Russ Abbott <<a
href="mailto:russ.abbott@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">russ.abbott@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
> <br>
> To help prevent such a disaster, let's do our
best to help people imagine what the world would look
like if Trump wins.<br>
> <br>
> For example, Trump has said that one of his
priorities would be to throw off the occupying army of
invading immigrants and criminals. Ask people to think
about how this occupying force is currently ruining
people's lives. I suspect that very few people have
any experience of such a noxious invading force. Most
people find their lives relatively peaceful. But if
Trump begins to implement his plan to throw off this
occupying force, the streets would be full of armed
deportation agents chasing down the evil occupying
forces. Gunfights would erupt between the deportation
agents and immigrants running for their lives. Many of
us would be caught in the crossfire--or holed up at
home trying to avoid the bullets. Ask people to
imagine such a world and to compare it to the
relatively peaceful world we now occupy. Ask them if
that is really what we want and if that is what we
will be voting for next Tuesday.<br>
> <br>
> -- Russ Abbott
<br>
> Professor Emeritus, Computer Science<br>
> California State University, Los Angeles<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 11:48 PM Jochen Fromm
<<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
> Here in Europe most people are indeed worried
that the candidate who is a convicted felon and wears
orange makeup will become president again. Have his
fans all forgotten he mainly played golf, praised
dictators and created tax cuts for the superrich? But
there is also a bit of hope that a woman will stop him
this time. <br>
> <br>
> A hundred years ago there was already a group in
America that hated Blacks and immigrants. As Timothy
Egan writes in his book "A Fever in the Heartland: The
Ku Klux Klan's Plot to Take Over America, and the
Woman Who Stopped Them" one of the Ku Klux Klan
leaders was a charismatic charlatan named D.C.
Stephenson. He was eventually brought down by a woman,
Madge Oberholtzer, who would reveal his cruelties, and
whose testimony stopped the Klan. When Europe fell
into darkness, America was able to stop the con man. I
hope it can do it again.<br>
> <a rel="noreferrer"
href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/</a><br>
> <br>
> -J.<br>
> <br>
> <br>
> -------- Original message --------<br>
> From: Nicholas Thompson <<a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>><br>
> Date: 10/30/24 10:54 PM (GMT+01:00)<br>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Evolutionary transitions
between egalitarian and despotic societies<br>
> <br>
> Hi, Jochen, <br>
> <br>
> Not sarcastic. It was to show the exploratory
nature of such models. I do believe that the most
mysterious feature of charisma is the behavior of the
charasmees. However this election turns out, almost
half the country is about to willingly offer up it's
political autonomy to a potential dictator. Whatever
my faults, I try, try, TRY not to do sarcasm. I do
wonder if we could build models that explore under
what circumstances it is better for everybody to do
SOMETHING then to take the time to pool information
and do the right thing. <br>
> <br>
> In general evolutionary history has no actual
power to constrain our present behavior. Our
behavior is constrainted by present events and present
behavioral repertoire. <br>
> <br>
> Nick <br>
> <br>
> On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 2:37 PM Jochen Fromm <<a
href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
> In her book "The Social Instinct" Nichola Raihani
mentions in chapter 17 the article "An evolutionary
model explaining the Neolithic transition from
egalitarianism to leadership and despotism" from Simon
T. Powers as a model how despotic regimes and
dominance hierarchies have evolved in early human
societies.<br>
> <a rel="noreferrer"
href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349</a><br>
> <br>
> It reminds me of our recent discussion triggered
by Nick's (sarcastic?) proposal to explain parts of
the MAGA movement in terms of evolutionary psychology.
Simon T. Powers is an interdisciplinary researcher
working at the University of Sterling<br>
> <a rel="noreferrer"
href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555</a><br>
> <br>
> A more recent article from him about "Modelling
transitions between egalitarian, dynamic leader and
absolutist power structures" can be found here<br>
> <a rel="noreferrer"
href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639</a><br>
> <br>
> -J.<br>
> <br>
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> Nicholas S. Thompson<br>
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays
9a-12p Zoom <a rel="noreferrer"
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<fieldset></fieldset>
<pre>-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
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-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. ---
-.. .<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer"
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class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
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1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a
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<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
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