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<p>Pieter -</p>
<p>Thanks for the detailed analysis/report of the state of SA
socio-politics. It is good for US fat and happy 'murricans to be
reminded that the rest of the world has it's own challenges, even
those we casually imagine to be "living the good life". <br>
</p>
<p>I hear a class or style of pragmatism running through the SA
national progression and perhaps your own personal experience
which I am familiar with. This from my own background and
amongst the *myriad* MAGA folks I am at least acquainted with
here, if not actually somewhat closely connected (relatives,
neighbors, etc.). I'm also a strong idealist in my own ways but
either leavened with or schizoided by instinctual pragmatism. I
say that as a peacenik who somehow resolved working in the
immediate vicinity of nuclear weapons design for order 10+ years
before becoming disillusioned with MAD and finally disengaging
from that system over the political/corporate corruption only
superficially hidden (when Bechtel Corp took possession of most of
the US Nuclear Design Jewels in 2006/7).<br>
</p>
<p>I imagine SA to have some of the same "frontier" ideals/habits
that the American West (and south and midwest) to carry. Your
end-of-Apartheid is/was very different/similar than our own Civil
Rights era and probably still burbling stronger even than our own
with all our own unrest. <br>
</p>
<p>Your level of struggle with corruption makes me think of that
reported by the young colleagues I was working with in Ukraine
leading up to the 2014 moments there.... the ethnically
Russian/Ukrainian born-raised one of the pair was adamant: "we
are ending our corruption the hard but only way, we are all
choosing not to engage in it, if something cannot be done without
a bribe, we can outwait the corrupt bribe-takers until they all
are starved out of their positions of power". I don't know if it
was a right way to act but it felt right-headed in spirit. I also
don't know how well it worked out... I got the feeling they had
already been on that program since the mid/late 2000 decade? I
lost touch at the diffraction point of the Russian invasion but
hear through mutual colleagues that they are "thriving" if only in
their war resistance efforts. The Russian-Ukranian is likely very
loyal to his birthland but it may put him at odds with his parents
and extended family. <br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 11/1/24 11:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOKSghc-ZtuozEv3tCrZKVxsai6BCAOFZwk3zwxJm-QgwA@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">Steve,<br>
<br>
I’d like to address your question: "<i>Do you identify as a
South African (Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it
a fiction that you and/or South Africa don't buy into? A
significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is strong
authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding." </i>
<div><i><br>
</i>
<div>I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.<br>
<br>
<b>Executive Summary<br>
</b><br>
Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced
a slide toward autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma
developing close ties to Russia. However, the current
President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted the country back to
pragmatic governance, actively rooting out corruption and
establishing good governance practices. The focus now is
primarily on service delivery and addressing everyday
issues, with less emphasis on BRICS and other global
matters.<br>
<br>
<b>A wee bit more details<br>
</b><br>
<b>Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics<br>
</b><br>
South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical
roots. In the 1980s, liberation movements like the ANC
received significant support from Russia and China to
overthrow the apartheid regime. The ANC, initially led by
Nelson Mandela and later by others, established pragmatic
ties with both Western and BRICS countries, leading to South
Africa’s membership in BRICS.<br>
<br>
<b>Recent Political Developments<br>
</b><br>
In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its
outright majority and formed a coalition government with the
DA, known as the Government of National Unity (GNU). The ANC
secured approximately 40% of the vote, while the DA received
around 20%. The GNU also includes several minor parties, but
it effectively functions as a coalition between the ANC and
DA.<br>
<br>
<b>Socio-Political Landscape<br>
</b><br>
<b>Support Base:</b> ANC supporters are predominantly Black,
while the DA has significant support among white voters,
though it also includes Black supporters.<br>
<br>
As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I
lean toward supporting the DA, but I also have very high
regards for Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership, focussing on
inclusion and good governance, even if I don’t fully support
the ANC.</div>
<div><br>
<b>Governance:</b> The Government of National Unity GNU has
been effective in improving service delivery and addressing
basic needs. Leadership from both the ANC and DA appears
mature and cooperative, working together to enhance the
lives of ordinary citizens, despite some exceptions and
complexities.<br>
<br>
<b>BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics</b><br>
<br>
Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by
President Ramaphosa, who displayed warm relations with
President Putin. This has caused internal friction within
the DA, particularly among its white supporters who strongly
oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war. However, the
prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service delivery
and pressing domestic issues outweighs concerns over South
Africa’s implicit support for Putin’s actions. As a result,
Ramaphosa’s engagement with Russia is generally accepted
without significant controversy.<br>
<br>
<b>Specifically addressing your questions<br>
</b><br>
<b>Governance and Authoritarianism<br>
</b><br>
<b>Jacob Zuma’s Era</b></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian
tendencies.</div>
<div><br>
<b>Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership</b></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>There is a strong shift toward good governance under
Ramaphosa, emphasizing transparency and accountability.</div>
<div><br>
<b>BRICS Relationships:</b> Historical Support: The support
from Russia and China during the liberation struggle has
left a lasting positive impression among the majority of
Black South Africans.</div>
<div><br>
<b>Current Sentiment</b>: This historical alliance continues
to influence contemporary views, making BRICS relationships
generally favorable among the population.<br>
<br>
<b>Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:</b> Diplomatic Strategy:
Ramaphosa’s warm relations with Putin are likely aimed at
acknowledging historical support and maintaining strong ties
with BRICS nations.<br>
<br>
<b>Future Orientation:</b> His focus appears to be on
leveraging Western partnerships to further South Africa’s
development based on democratic principles and good
governance, distancing the country from authoritarian
influences.<br>
<br>
Pieter</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23,
steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><br>
Pieter -<br>
<br>
It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you
offer. If <br>
in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective
negotiator, <br>
up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means"
then this <br>
is significant and interesting to me.<br>
<br>
As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the
NATO+/BRICS+ <br>
polarization that has emerged. Do you identify as a SA
(Dutch descent <br>
vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA
don't buy <br>
into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations
is a strong <br>
authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding. Trump
has already <br>
undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some
more up to <br>
withdrawal/abandonment. Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+?
It seems <br>
unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US <br>
economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar
world.<br>
<br>
I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even
Bipolar <br>
world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it
seems? Yet I <br>
also think we are inevitably becoming a global
superorganism? It does <br>
seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic
balance <br>
before they eventually lose their independent identities.
Perhaps that <br>
can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?)
go <br>
extra-planetary?<br>
<br>
I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which
expanded my <br>
appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been
in SA, and <br>
how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he
and Elon <br>
(in complementary ways?).<br>
<br>
More parallax is good.<br>
<br>
FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely
ineffective, <br>
obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds
of <br>
effectuality. My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by
other <br>
means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be
associated <br>
with it. I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock)
for a while <br>
but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of
me... his <br>
most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping
up with <br>
dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M
lotteries to <br>
motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom
that one <br>
is!).<br>
<br>
- Steve<br>
> There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that
Trump does not <br>
> have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and
his <br>
> perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So,
contrary to what I <br>
> previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.<br>
><br>
> This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have
overlooked <br>
> some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been
asserting things <br>
> that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted
here.<br>
><br>
> For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge
that my <br>
> perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t
widely shared. <br>
> Let's agree to disagree.<br>
<br>
<br>
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