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<font size="4" face="EB Garamond"> Hi all,<br>
<br>
from Italy I look at
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/">https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/</a>
and I hope...<br>
<br>
Best, Pietro<br>
<br>
</font><br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Il 04/11/24 19:55, glen ha scritto:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:5d727c9d-b3d6-4bc6-9087-b4b1ed7aa8df@gmail.com">Both
Kalshi
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections"><https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections></a> and
PolyMarket <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://polymarket.com/elections"><https://polymarket.com/elections></a> skew heavily
for Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win
(barring legal shenanigans). I figured I'd go ahead and
participate. So I bought $50 worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard
that there may be some rich people manipulating the market. It's
not clear to me why they'd do that. But like Musk buying Twitter,
it's clear that "disposable" income takes on a deeper meaning when
you've got so much of it. But barring market manipulation: a) do
y'all think the markets have more "information", whatever that
means, than the polls? And b) are y'all participating in any of
these markets?
<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Democrito, che ’l mondo a caso pone (Inferno, IV, 136)
"It is the hallmark of any deep truth that its negation is also a deep truth." Niels Bohr.
A <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://terna.to.it/breviArticoli.html">https://terna.to.it/breviArticoli.html</a> riporto dei miei brevi articoli su temi di attualità.
Asterischi da Verso Itaca a <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://verso-itaca.it/asterischi-da-verso-itaca/">https://verso-itaca.it/asterischi-da-verso-itaca/</a>
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</pre>
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