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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa because of climate change. I suppose they’ll end up in Europe, creating yet more folks like Trump to rile people up about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>From: </span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Barry MacKichan <barry.mackichan@mackichan.com><br><b>Date: </b>Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:03 AM<br><b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Actually, depopulation is already underway. Birth rates are below the equilibrium value in many countries, and most of the others are headed in that direction. I believe that the current estimate is that 2050 will be the peak year for the world population.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>How we manage this is an important task.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>As we transition into this stage, the ratio of the populations of the various groups will depend strongly on when and how much their birth rates decline. One estimate is that by 2100, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa, as a fraction of the world population, will be six times what it is now.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>This link is unfortunately paywalled <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt">The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Gray</a> (you can read it if you give your email address to them), but if you have the time, the author gave a lecture in Australia. <a href="https://youtu.be/ahjdeDhP09o">The Coming Global Depopulation | Nicholas Eberstadt | John Bonython Lecture - YouTube</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>— Barry<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>On 6 Nov 2024, at 10:58, glen wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #136BCE 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;margin-left:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:3.75pt'><p><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#136BCE'>With 8 billion people on the planet, liberalism is a fantasy, or perhaps just a fossilized ideology we have to grow out of as the old people die. Of course, we could depopulate the earth and resuscitate liberalism that way. But that sounds more painful than changing our minds. Hm. Maybe it is easier to kill and die than it is to change one's mind? IDK.<o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>