<html xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ligatures:none;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Trump’s reads the room. If he feels his people would tolerate Russia using chemical weapons at a massive scale in Ukraine, then he’d be fine with that. Remember he was fine separating immigrant children from their parents. This property may well cause some deals to be made because they are afraid of the consequences. That’s not a skill in negotiation, that’s just the kind of terror that an organized crime boss might elicit. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>The U.S. doesn’t have a boundless number of Tomahawk missiles to give Ukraine, even if we authorized firing into Russia. They run a couple million U.S. dollars each. We aren’t even keeping up with Russia’s artillery manufacturing. Putin knows all this. For better or worse, Biden doesn’t want a war. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>From: </span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <pieters@randcontrols.co.za><br><b>Date: </b>Friday, November 8, 2024 at 11:49 PM<br><b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Trump's the kind of guy you should take seriously, not literally. When he says something big like, “I’ll end the war in Ukraine on day one,” he means he's dead set on making peace happen there. Anyone with half a brain knows he can’t actually snap his fingers and stop the war on his first day. That’s up to Russia and Ukraine to figure out, after all. But does Trump have a unique knack for pushing people toward a deal? Oh, you bet he does.<br><br>In fact, William Spaniel, a professor over at the University of Pittsburgh, mentioned in a podcast <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8</a> that Putin seems to believe Trump will lay down a deal that both sides can live with. (And yeah, Spaniel seems to know his stuff.)<br><br>So, here’s my hunch on what Trump might say to Ukraine and Russia, in my own words: “Alright, fellas, here’s the deal. Ukraine, let’s be real—Russia needs to keep a little slice of land to save face. It might sting, but if you don’t settle, Russia’s going to drag this war out and make it miserable for everyone. And Russia, let’s stop the drama now. You can keep a few bits, but if you keep pushing, we’re going to load up Ukraine with so many weapons it’ll make your head spin. Then, you’re gonna lose big time, and Ukraine will take back everything. But hey, it’s up to you, sweethearts!”<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>On Fri, 8 Nov 2024 at 07:04, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><p><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> Marcuswrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa because of climate change. I suppose they’ll end up in Europe, creating yet more folks like Trump to rile people up about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Until the AMOC turns over and plunges Northern Europe into the kind of winter cold Maine-Nova Scotia currently "enjoy"?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p>there was some B post-apocalypse movie starring a polar vortex which ended with all of Canada/US lined up at the MX border asking to be let in to avoid turning into popsicles... of course, the style of the movie had the sweet long-suffering people in the land of Manana politely inviting all the Karen's and Matt Gaetz's into their (now overwhelmed? country)...<o:p></o:p></p><p><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>