<div dir="ltr">I think many of you dislike Trump so much that it\u2019s hard to see he might actually do some good for the US and the world. Let me share my thinking.<br><br>I see Trump a bit like King Leopold II of Belgium. King Leopold did horrible things in the Congo, but he did a lot of good for his own country. Back then, people in Belgium didn\u2019t know the terrible stuff happening in Africa because news travelled differently.<br><br>Now, don\u2019t get me wrong\u2014Trump\u2019s a flawed person, and I think we can agree on that. But, in his first term, he actually achieved some good things for the US and globally. For example, his administration was successful in the Middle East. If you\u2019re interested in a deeper look, Lex Fridman\u2019s interview with Jared Kushner offers some insights (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo</a>). It's fair to say that Biden\u2019s administration didn\u2019t build on Trump\u2019s progress there - in fact they messed up seriously.<br><br>If we keep an open mind, it\u2019s possible to see that Biden\u2019s approach in Ukraine will stretch out the war and cost US taxpayers more over many years and the citizens of Ukraine will be the big losers. Given Trump\u2019s previous success in the Middle East, it\u2019s not crazy to think he could find a faster way to help end the war in Ukraine without a mess, like what happened with Biden\u2019s exit from Afghanistan.<br><br>Sure, Trump\u2019s not a saint. But he\u2019s not looking to go down as a failure either\u2014he wants to be remembered as a winner.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, 9 Nov 2024 at 16:43, Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div class="msg7491799666575923813"><div lang="EN-US" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div class="m_7491799666575923813WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">Trump\u2019s reads the room. If he feels his people would tolerate Russia using chemical weapons at a massive scale in Ukraine, then he\u2019d be fine with that. Remember he was fine separating immigrant children from their parents. This property may well cause some deals to be made because they are afraid of the consequences. That\u2019s not a skill in negotiation, that\u2019s just the kind of terror that an organized crime boss might elicit. <u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">The U.S. doesn\u2019t have a boundless number of Tomahawk missiles to give Ukraine, even if we authorized firing into Russia. They run a couple million U.S. dollars each. We aren\u2019t even keeping up with Russia\u2019s artillery manufacturing. Putin knows all this. For better or worse, Biden doesn\u2019t want a war. <u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt solid rgb(181,196,223);padding:3pt 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12pt"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>><br><b>Date: </b>Friday, November 8, 2024 at 11:49\u202fPM<br><b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">Trump's the kind of guy you should take seriously, not literally. When he says something big like, \u201cI\u2019ll end the war in Ukraine on day one,\u201d he means he's dead set on making peace happen there. Anyone with half a brain knows he can\u2019t actually snap his fingers and stop the war on his first day. That\u2019s up to Russia and Ukraine to figure out, after all. But does Trump have a unique knack for pushing people toward a deal? Oh, you bet he does.<br><br>In fact, William Spaniel, a professor over at the University of Pittsburgh, mentioned in a podcast <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8</a> that Putin seems to believe Trump will lay down a deal that both sides can live with. (And yeah, Spaniel seems to know his stuff.)<br><br>So, here\u2019s my hunch on what Trump might say to Ukraine and Russia, in my own words: \u201cAlright, fellas, here\u2019s the deal. Ukraine, let\u2019s be real\u2014Russia needs to keep a little slice of land to save face. It might sting, but if you don\u2019t settle, Russia\u2019s going to drag this war out and make it miserable for everyone. And Russia, let\u2019s stop the drama now. You can keep a few bits, but if you keep pushing, we\u2019re going to load up Ukraine with so many weapons it\u2019ll make your head spin. Then, you\u2019re gonna lose big time, and Ukraine will take back everything. But hey, it\u2019s up to you, sweethearts!\u201d<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">On Fri, 8 Nov 2024 at 07:04, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><p><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"> Marcuswrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa because of climate change. I suppose they\u2019ll end up in Europe, creating yet more folks like Trump to rile people up about it.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">Until the AMOC turns over and plunges Northern Europe into the kind of winter cold Maine-Nova Scotia currently "enjoy"?<u></u><u></u></span></p><p>there was some B post-apocalypse movie starring a polar vortex which ended with all of Canada/US lined up at the MX border asking to be let in to avoid turning into popsicles... of course, the style of the movie had the sweet long-suffering people in the land of Manana politely inviting all the Karen's and Matt Gaetz's into their (now overwhelmed? country)...<u></u><u></u></p><p><u></u> <u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><u></u><u></u></span></p></blockquote></div></div></div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>
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