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<p>California is 5th largest economy but including the "rest" of
Pacifica (OR, WA, BC) it ranks 4th just behind Germany. What
would an informal but powerful union of North Pacific rim
"states" (Panama to BC), the bulk of Canada, and the northeast
Atlantic Seaboard and (eventually?) the upper midwest (MN, WI, MI
...) look like economically, controlling Pacific trade, etc. ?
JP/Korea, the UK, the EU would all be obvious good trade/defense
allies, no matter what "Gilead" chose to do? <br>
</p>
<p>As for Musk, I predict Space Force will be spun up with an
unprecedented accelerated "Colonize Mars" agenda. Maybe Bezos
will be allowed to play an O'Neill Colony fantasy out to
complement this... do we leave the Moon to Saudi Arabia, japan and
China?<br>
</p>
<p>Remember how fast we went from Vanguard to Moon Landing in the
60s? The mission is much bigger but the resources and
sophistication of the supporting systems are also
(multiplicatively, geometrically, exponentially,??? ) greater?</p>
<p>And Zuckerberg will provide the Fentanyl of the Masses with VR
rigs and virtual worlds to live out the full spectrum of
fantasies? <br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 11/9/24 10:15 AM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I\u2019ve already
identified some things that could come from a Trump
administration. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<ol style="margin-top:0in" type="1" start="1">
<li class="MsoListParagraph"
style="margin-left:0in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">It will stimulate New York, New
England and the west coast and other states to create
further civil rights protections from the federal
government. Health maintenance arrangements may be
further secured by the states. When Social Security and
Medicare fail, these states will be better prepared. The
result of all this is that smart people in backward states
will leave those states and take residence in states where
they are valued. Money will be kept in progressive
states and not wasted on an ignorant, self-destructive
collective.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoListParagraph"
style="margin-left:0in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">It will motivate these states to
reach out to other countries to negotiate special
relationships on trade and climate. California, being
the 5<sup>th</sup> largest economy in the world, can
bypass the federal government in making deals. This will
limit the power of the federal government.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoListParagraph"
style="margin-left:0in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Elon Musk\u2019s interests may keep
progress going on electrification. Yes, the U.S. may
indeed use Ukraine to secure access to the country\u2019s
natural resources. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoListParagraph"
style="margin-left:0in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Elon Musk\u2019s interests in space
colonization may force the Republican party to adopt some
more forward-looking projects that will employ angry young
men and mitigate their despair.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The problem
with stretching out the war in Ukraine is that they will run
out of manpower. Otherwise, it is arguably a good thing
for the U.S. to keep Russian losses high and to undermine
their economy. That\u2019s how to break an authoritarian
regime. Unfortunately, now we will have to first have to
break our own.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Pieter
Steenekamp <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za"><pieters@randcontrols.co.za></a><br>
<b>Date: </b>Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 8:07\u202fAM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I think
many of you dislike Trump so much that it\u2019s hard to see he
might actually do some good for the US and the world. Let
me share my thinking.<br>
<br>
I see Trump a bit like King Leopold II of Belgium. King
Leopold did horrible things in the Congo, but he did a lot
of good for his own country. Back then, people in Belgium
didn\u2019t know the terrible stuff happening in Africa because
news travelled differently.<br>
<br>
Now, don\u2019t get me wrong\u2014Trump\u2019s a flawed person, and I
think we can agree on that. But, in his first term, he
actually achieved some good things for the US and
globally. For example, his administration was successful
in the Middle East. If you\u2019re interested in a deeper look,
Lex Fridman\u2019s interview with Jared Kushner offers some
insights (<a
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo</a>).
It's fair to say that Biden\u2019s administration didn\u2019t build
on Trump\u2019s progress there - in fact they messed up
seriously.<br>
<br>
If we keep an open mind, it\u2019s possible to see that Biden\u2019s
approach in Ukraine will stretch out the war and cost US
taxpayers more over many years and the citizens of Ukraine
will be the big losers. Given Trump\u2019s previous success in
the Middle East, it\u2019s not crazy to think he could find a
faster way to help end the war in Ukraine without a mess,
like what happened with Biden\u2019s exit from Afghanistan.<br>
<br>
Sure, Trump\u2019s not a saint. But he\u2019s not looking to go down
as a failure either\u2014he wants to be remembered as a winner.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">On Sat,
9 Nov 2024 at 16:43, Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC
1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Trump\u2019s reads the room.
If he feels his people would tolerate Russia using
chemical weapons at a massive scale in Ukraine,
then he\u2019d be fine with that. Remember he was
fine separating immigrant children from their
parents. This property may well cause some deals
to be made because they are afraid of the
consequences. That\u2019s not a skill in negotiation,
that\u2019s just the kind of terror that an organized
crime boss might elicit. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">The U.S. doesn\u2019t have a
boundless number of Tomahawk missiles to give
Ukraine, even if we authorized firing into
Russia. They run a couple million U.S. dollars
each. We aren\u2019t even keeping up with Russia\u2019s
artillery manufacturing. Putin knows all this.
For better or worse, Biden doesn\u2019t want a war. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <<a
href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>Friday, November 8, 2024 at
11:49\u202fPM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Trump's the kind of guy
you should take seriously, not literally. When
he says something big like, \u201cI\u2019ll end the war in
Ukraine on day one,\u201d he means he's dead set on
making peace happen there. Anyone with half a
brain knows he can\u2019t actually snap his fingers
and stop the war on his first day. That\u2019s up to
Russia and Ukraine to figure out, after all. But
does Trump have a unique knack for pushing
people toward a deal? Oh, you bet he does.<br>
<br>
In fact, William Spaniel, a professor over at
the University of Pittsburgh, mentioned in a
podcast <a
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8</a>
that Putin seems to believe Trump will lay down
a deal that both sides can live with. (And yeah,
Spaniel seems to know his stuff.)<br>
<br>
So, here\u2019s my hunch on what Trump might say to
Ukraine and Russia, in my own words: \u201cAlright,
fellas, here\u2019s the deal. Ukraine, let\u2019s be
real\u2014Russia needs to keep a little slice of land
to save face. It might sting, but if you don\u2019t
settle, Russia\u2019s going to drag this war out and
make it miserable for everyone. And Russia,
let\u2019s stop the drama now. You can keep a few
bits, but if you keep pushing, we\u2019re going to
load up Ukraine with so many weapons it\u2019ll make
your head spin. Then, you\u2019re gonna lose big
time, and Ukraine will take back everything. But
hey, it\u2019s up to you, sweethearts!\u201d<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">On Fri, 8 Nov 2024 at
07:04, steve smith <<a
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> Marcuswrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Seems like a
lot of people will try to leave Africa
because of climate change. I suppose
they\u2019ll end up in Europe, creating yet
more folks like Trump to rile people up
about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Until the AMOC
turns over and plunges Northern Europe into
the kind of winter cold Maine-Nova Scotia
currently "enjoy"?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>there was some B post-apocalypse movie
starring a polar vortex which ended with all
of Canada/US lined up at the MX border asking
to be let in to avoid turning into
popsicles... of course, the style of the
movie had the sweet long-suffering people in
the land of Manana politely inviting all the
Karen's and Matt Gaetz's into their (now
overwhelmed? country)...<o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
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