<div dir="ltr"><br>I asked Grok "please give me an overview of Steven Pinker's optimistic view of the future"<br><br>Steven Pinker is a cognitive psychologist and linguist who has become well-known for his optimistic view on the future, particularly through his books like "The Better Angels of Our Nature" and "Enlightenment Now." Here's an overview of his perspective:<br><br>Core Arguments:<br>Decline in Violence:<br>Pinker argues that, historically, violence has been on a significant downward trend. He points to various metrics like homicide rates, deaths from wars, and even the treatment of animals to show that humanity has become less violent over time.<br>Human Progress:<br>He emphasizes improvements in health, life expectancy, education, human rights, and economic prosperity. For instance, life expectancy has doubled over the last century, extreme poverty has plummeted, and literacy rates have soared.<br>The Enlightenment Values:<br>Pinker attributes much of this progress to the spread of Enlightenment values such as reason, science, humanism, and progress itself. He believes these values have driven societal improvements by promoting skepticism, evidence-based reasoning, and a commitment to human welfare.<br>Countering Pessimism:<br>Pinker often critiques what he sees as an undue pessimism in modern society, fueled by media bias towards negative news, which skews perceptions of the world. He uses statistical data to argue that, contrary to popular belief, many aspects of life are getting better.<br>Rational Optimism:<br>His optimism isn't blind; it's grounded in data and historical trends. Pinker acknowledges setbacks and challenges but argues that the overall trajectory points towards improvement. He advocates for a "rational optimism" where one acknowledges problems but also the capacity to solve them.<br><br>Key Points from His Works:<br>In "The Better Angels of Our Nature," he discusses how human nature includes both violent and peaceful tendencies, with the latter increasingly dominant due to social, cultural, and economic changes.<br>In "Enlightenment Now," Pinker elaborates on how Enlightenment thinking has led to tangible improvements in various aspects of life, from health to peace, and why these trends can continue if we uphold Enlightenment values.<br><br>Critiques and Challenges:<br>Some critics argue Pinker overlooks or downplays ongoing global issues like climate change, economic inequality, or the potential for technological misuse, which could undo or complicate the progress he highlights.<br>Others challenge his methodology, pointing out that statistics can be misleading or that his selection of data might be biased towards positive trends.<br><br>Conclusion:<br>Pinker's view is that by understanding our history through the lens of data, we can appreciate the progress made and be motivated to continue this trajectory. He encourages a proactive approach to problem-solving based on science, reason, and humanistic values. Despite criticisms, his work has sparked significant debate about how we perceive our past, present, and future, promoting a more hopeful, albeit cautious, outlook on what lies ahead.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, 20 Jan 2025 at 00:20, Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net">jofr@cas-group.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Richard Heinberg can formulate it probably better than I. He has defined in his book "Peak Everything" ( <a href="https://newsociety.com/book/peak-everything/" target="_blank">https://newsociety.com/book/peak-everything/</a> ) the following 5 axioms of sustainability:</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><br></span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">1. (Tainter’s Axiom): Any society that continues to use critical resources unsustainably will collapse</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">2. (Bartlett’s Axiom): Population growth and/or growth in the rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">3. To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is less than or equal to the rate of natural replenishment.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">4. To be sustainable, the use of NON-renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is declining, and the rate of decline must be greater than or equal to the rate of depletion. </span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">5. Sustainability requires that substances introduced into the environment from human activities be minimized and rendered harmless to biosphere functions</span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><a href="https://richardheinberg.com/178-five-axioms-of-sustainability" target="_blank">https://richardheinberg.com/178-five-axioms-of-sustainability</a></span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><br></span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">-J.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><br></span></p><div><br></div><div align="left" dir="auto" style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> </div><div>Date: 1/19/25  6:48 PM  (GMT+01:00) </div><div>To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a> </div><div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fredkin/Toffoli, Reversibility and Adiabatic Computing. </div><div><br></div></div>
    <p>Jochen wrote:</p>
    <blockquote type="cite">
      
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans",Roboto-Medium,sans-serif;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br>
        </span></p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Natural
          ecosystems do not consume more than they give back. Every
          biological organism that dies is recycled and used to build
          new organisms. If we want to integrate our society in this
          only natural habitat which we have then fossil fuels must be
          replaced by renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions and
          plastic waste production must be stopped, deforestation must
          end, agriculture must be sustainable, resources must be
          recycled. Paul Hawken mentions these steps in his book
          "Regeneration: Ending the Climate Crisis in One Generation"</span></p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/446598/regeneration-by-hawken-paul/9780141998916" target="_blank">https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/446598/regeneration-by-hawken-paul/9780141998916</a></span></p>
    </blockquote>
    <p>it just so happens that I'm listening to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e08dWgk-TRo&t=3283s" target="_blank">Nate
        Hagens podcast on the topic of bioregionalism</a> which ties
      (very abstractly) these points you are making here with my
      experiments with Hashlife.   The connection (if not too stretched)
      is that the adaptation of a bioregion to human presence is
      stigmergic and in the sense of hashlife is vaguely correlated with
      the idea of building/maintaining a highly relevant/adaptive suite
      of patterns in the environment suitable for the evolution of one
      particular subsystem (human individuals, groups).  One of the
      participants in the panel is an archaelogist who studies
      Neanderthal sites extensively who claimed there was a site she
      studied extensively which was used as a large-mammal butchery for
      roughly 200k years across various climactic shifts...   did this
      represent acute suitability or a stigmergic change in the locale
      which resulted from the earliest uses of the locale?<br>
    </p>
    <p>The idea that "natural ecosystems do not consume more than they
      give back" is an example, however, of my maunderings on the
      "TANNSTAFFL" paradox.  Circular/toroidal economies do seem to be
      less wasteful (in some sense) but Life exists situated in
      gradients and while it's signature trick is to export entropy from
      it's immediate context, it *exports* it, not *avoids* it?   It
      seems as if this is all about defining "systems boundaries" which
      of course may be a contradiction in terms (or a tautology?).  <br>
    </p>
    <p>I don't know if this is a gibberishy as EricS' recent rant about
      how bad science writing is bringing civilization to an early end
      or not... but I do think it rhymes?<br>
    </p>
    <blockquote type="cite"><br dir="auto">
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">But
          it is more than just a climate crisis, it is "Civilization's
          Crisis: A Set Of Linked Challenges" as the book from John
          Scales Avery says. We have the interconnected challenges of
          climate crisis, refugee crisis, energy scarcity, population
          growth, resource depletion, poverty and economic inequality,
          pollution and environmental degradation, and finally the
          problem of war and nuclear weapons. Solving all these
          interconnected crises in our capitalistic economic system
          seems to be impossible. </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:"Google Sans"">John
          says we need to achieve a steady state economic system.</span></p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10501?srsltid=AfmBOopEymNyWKHnCaxz--HVIq0KJOayH5IYnOGfzHnri2zz6jeBMsEp" target="_blank">https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10501?srsltid=AfmBOopEymNyWKHnCaxz--HVIq0KJOayH5IYnOGfzHnri2zz6jeBMsEp</a></span></p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:"Google Sans";color:rgb(0,0,0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><br>
        </span></p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt">-J.</p>
      <p dir="ltr" style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><br>
      </p>
      <div><br>
      </div>
      <div align="left" style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0,0,0)" dir="auto">
        <div>-------- Original message --------</div>
        <div>From: Santafe <a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank"><desmith@santafe.edu></a> </div>
        <div>Date: 1/19/25 12:04 PM (GMT+01:00) </div>
        <div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
          <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam@redfish.com></a> </div>
        <div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fredkin/Toffoli, Reversibility and
          Adiabatic Computing. </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
      </div>
      I think Jochen is right, that civilization will collapse.  And the
      reason is that people keep writing articles like this one (a
      couple of clicks deep from Steve’s TechCrunch link)
      <div>
        <div style="display:block">
          <div style="display:inline-block" role="link"><a style="border-radius:10px;font-family:-apple-system,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;display:block;width:300px;overflow:hidden;text-decoration:none" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.exponentialview.co/p/reversible-computing-1" dir="ltr" role="button" width="300" target="_blank">
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                    <td align="center"><img height="150" width="300" name="m_-5526877134614539275_com_samsung_android_email_attachmentprovider_1_3548_RAW_1737291099023" style="width: 300px; height: 150px;" alt="8dcc397c-a086-4abc-add0-ea3fa8f75082_1600x1224.png" src="cid:ii_19481f56d2bcf2ffd741"></td>
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                              <div style="max-width:100%;margin:0px 16px;overflow:hidden">
                                <div style="font-weight:500;font-size:12px;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;text-align:left"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.exponentialview.co/p/reversible-computing-1" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><font color="#272727" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.847)">🔮 Breaking the
                                      energy barrier with reversible
                                      computing</font></a></div>
                                <div style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;text-align:left"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.exponentialview.co/p/reversible-computing-1" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><font color="#808080" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.498)">exponentialview.co</font></a></div>
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            </a></div>
        </div>
        <div>about entropy.</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>Like Charles de Gaulle’s (apocryphal?) “How can you govern
          a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?”, how can a
          society continue that is committed to making entropy into
          voodoo?</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>Here are some old war-horses, never put out to pasture
          where they belong:</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>
          <p style="line-height:1.6em;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:Spectral,serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";font-size:19px">The
            law that this potential reduction in energy all depends on
            is the second law of thermodynamics, which states that
            entropy (unusable energy or disorder) increases over time.
            As a result, everything ultimately runs down and releases
            waste heat. </p>
          <br>
        </div>
        <div>(my complaint is the parenthesis: entropy is not energy,
          usable or otherwise).  And later </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>
          <p style="line-height:1.6em;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:Spectral,serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";font-size:19px">Landauer
            created a formula for the energy in joules released per
            binary bit deleted. If we express his original equation in
            natural units of energy and information, the equation is
            astoundingly simple:</p>
          <p style="line-height:1.6em;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:Spectral,serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";font-size:19px"><em><span>Energy
                (in natural units) = Information (in nats)</span><a id="m_-5526877134614539275footnote-anchor-1-144839107" href="https://www.exponentialview.co/p/reversible-computing-1#footnote-1-144839107" rel="" target="_blank">1</a></em></p>
          <p style="line-height:1.6em;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:Spectral,serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";font-size:19px">Now,
            this doesn’t prove that energy and information are
            equivalent in the same way that Einstein proved that mass
            and energy were equivalent, but it is a tantalising
            possibility.</p>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>It’s not a tantalizing possibility.  It’s a meaningless
          nonsense-locution that you say to people if you don’t think
          they could understand a correct description and don’t really
          care anyway. </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>The above are related to the writer (of the TechCrunch
          link?) saying that </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><span style="color:rgb(33,38,35);font-family:nb_international_proregular,sans-serif;font-size:19px"> Effectively,
            energy is retained inside the chip instead of being released
            as heat.</span></div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>No.  There could be energy on the chip, but that’s not what
          the relation is about.</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>What is retained in the chip is specificity among choices.
           Whether or not there is any energy difference in one choice
          versus another has nothing to do with anything’s being
          “retained inside the chip”.</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>The reason Landauer’s relation (in any of its variants)
          holds is that, to recycle chip-state, you have to have a way
          to rotate the state-entropy out into a thermal bath.  More
          specifically, there has to be a way to rotate any state from
          the chip into some corresponding state in the bath such that
          the chip is returned to a default state to receive the next
          inputs.  Because the signal state that you are rotating out
          could be any allowed one, the bath-state that you need to
          rotate it into needs likewise to be one from an ensemble.  It
          is to make the _bath states_ populatable that you need to
          supply entropy-less energy (aka work), which the bath then
          moves into no-longer-controlled degrees of freedom (aka heat).</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>I’m not actually up on a high horse, and write as if I were
          mostly to make myself absurd.  I really don’t care one way or
          another.  But there is a thing in here about being real to
          people that seems important to me as a theoretician, as it has
          to do with envisioning a different world.  Increasingly I have
          some time with Sci-Com people, and they are remarkably
          un-bothered by the thing that, to me, seems like the core of
          all later choices:</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>What if, when we talked to people, we either tried to give
          our best ability to be understood, or like Quakers, we just
          stayed quiet.  The motive being that, if we aren’t giving them
          something we intend them to understand, then we must be doing
          something else.  Hoping we make ourselves look smart?
           Fashionable?  That feels icky (dishonorable) to me, in the
          attitude one person evidently has about others.  They are
          there to fuel vanity; not as peers who deserve knowledge if
          your guild is the knowledge workers.</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>Sure, we all mess up.  But our society now is structured
          around relations where I think people really don’t care, and
          this casual clowning is taken to be the default, and all fine.
           It makes me uncomfortable.</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div>Eric</div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
          <blockquote type="cite">
            <div>On Jan 18, 2025, at 19:03, steve smith
              <a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank"><sasmyth@swcp.com></a> wrote:</div>
            <br>
            <div>
              <div>
                <p>Pieter -</p>
                <p>Good find.   It lead me to Vaire and then to the
                  Sandia/ABQ work of Michael Frank who left to
                  join/found Vaire this summer?   It is possible that my
                  renewed interest in reversible computing might have
                  been triggered subliminally by some reference to
                  both/either?  </p>
                <p><a href="https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/01/vaire-computing-raises-4-5m-for-reversible-computing-moonshot-which-could-drastically-reduce-energy-needs/" target="_blank">https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/01/vaire-computing-raises-4-5m-for-reversible-computing-moonshot-which-could-drastically-reduce-energy-needs/
                    <br>
                  </a></p>
                <p><a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fvaire.co%2f&c=E,1,7Yg6L5oMzyVTF9DuV3PSwOaj-V9Ifx9465R3NgRWVhnPUMCny23gFq_YnGVxv6ZGpVLLqMfg1QaQD1BjbgxIFv1SkxLkqM3VE-jtMwEi&typo=1" target="_blank">https://vaire.co/</a><br>
                </p>
                <p>I thought I'd been triggered by the combination of
                  the demands of AI and on data centers (my daughter
                  closed her gym of 10 years to take a job in a data
                  center development startup a year ago... ).  <br>
                </p>
                <p>My inability to attribute such things, parallels that
                  of LLMs (or more generally transformer models)?</p>
                - Steve<br>
              </div>
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