<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/28/25 11:02 AM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN0PR11MB5985F0C94502BB0E74169302C5EF2@MN0PR11MB5985.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<meta name="Generator"
content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)">
<style>@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}@font-face
{font-family:Aptos;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;}a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:11.0pt;
mso-ligatures:none;}div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}</style>
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">My question
was more about how quickly a population can transition from
disorder to order. I was wondering if there were
historical examples of these potent immune responses where
the resolution was quick. A contemporary example is the
removal of Yoon in South Korea. The mechanism might vary,
but ours is a particularly violent culture. </span></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>I was raised on the myth of an ancient middle-eastern overthrow
of a repressive regime across a wide swath of highly distributed
village culture referred to as "the Night of the Long Knives". I
find no recorded reference to this, and in fact the most common
reference appears to be to the Nazi "Röhm Purge" of 1934? I think
the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Vespers">"Sicilian
Vespers"</a> or more locally relevant The <a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt">Pueblo Revolt</a>?</p>
<p>My Ukranian colleagues claimed that *they* had been part of a
somewhat less abrupt immune response where the professional youth
culture (<50) made a pact to stamp out corruption (attributed
to mostly Russian Oligarchs and their minions) by simply refusing
to pay bribes which took about a year to break the habit.</p>
<p>Maybe in place of sending a check (or bank transfer) to the IRS
this year, send a copy of your check sent instead to California
Wildfire Recovery programs?</p>
<p>Mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN0PR11MB5985F0C94502BB0E74169302C5EF2@MN0PR11MB5985.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Friam <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stephen
Guerin<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 28, 2025 9:25 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Prompt: steelman an argument that
challenges the premise of my prompt on political violence.
Audience FRIAM group email list. Snarky tone. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Oh, so corruption and illegitimacy are supposed to be the
magical catalysts for political violence? That’s an
adorably tidy theory. The reality is messier—violence
needs a potent brew of economic collapse, inequality, and
sometimes foreign meddling, not just a "bad guy" in
charge. Plenty of corrupt regimes limp along peacefully
with patronage networks and repression, while their
citizens begrudgingly prioritize stability over idealistic
notions of "legitimacy." And let’s not pretend legitimacy
is some universal standard—what’s corrupt to you might be
perfectly fine to someone else (hello, cultural
relativity). Besides, history is packed with examples of
violence against perfectly legitimate leaders because
deeper societal fractures were the real issue. So yeah,
blaming political violence on corrupt leaders? Cute, but
maybe think bigger.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 9:01<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>AM
steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">Glen -<br>
<br>
I have to agree with you on your rant. Not just
because I suspect that <br>
will trigger you, but because it actually "got" to me
in a new way.<br>
<br>
I do use the terminology of "<elaborate statement
X> can you <br>
reflect/elaborate/discuss/etc on this for/with me?"
at which point it <br>
(any given LLM of the moment) is likely to very
agreeably <br>
(obsequiously?) pretends to do just that. For my
purposes, it is <br>
(almost?) as if it is in fact doing "just that"...
but I think I <br>
intuitively agree with your instinct/intuition that it
is merely <br>
"pretending" to do that.<br>
<br>
Of course, I don't know how this fits into your
oft-stated idea that <br>
"people don't communicate" or "communication is an
illusion"... this <br>
bias would suggest that "if people don't actually
discuss <br>
(communicate?), then there is no reason to believe
gradient-descenders <br>
on high-dimensional manifolds would either?"<br>
<br>
I do agree that there is an element that my
"discussions" with LLM chat <br>
interfaces is a lot like a well-lubricated browsing of
spreadsheets <br>
and/or wikipedia pages (with spreadsheets and charts
and anecdotal <br>
examples linked heavily). But then chatting with
others (here included) <br>
has a great deal of that quality as well.<br>
<br>
Mumble,<br>
<br>
- Steve<br>
<br>
On 1/28/25 8:44 AM, glen wrote:<br>
> I've always been annoyed by [micro]bloggers who
will launch a <br>
> rhetorical salvo and then write (often shouted
with an ! or all caps) <br>
> "Discuss!" What Claude and GPT are doing here is
not discussing. It's <br>
> not even "discursing", which I guess isn't a
word. The prompt would <br>
> better be "Lecture me on ...". But when I type
that into the anthropic <br>
> console (3.5-sonnet), I get "I aim to discuss
this complex topic <br>
> objectively and factually. Key historical
patterns include tensions <br>
> building over time through economic disparities,
erosion of rights, <br>
> and repression, often leading to transition
through mass movements, <br>
> legal reforms, and institutional changes. I can
discuss specific <br>
> historical examples if you're interested."<br>
><br>
> Jesus H Christ. Claude is using your sense of the
word "discuss" too! <br>
> What has this world come to, where
[people|machines] can use any word <br>
> they want to mean any thing they want? Get off my
lawn!<br>
><br>
> More importantly, though, this stuff is
gaslighting everyone into <br>
> thinking one can *have* a discussion with the
machine. Can you? Is it <br>
> actually a discussion? I argue "no". It's much
more akin to browsing a <br>
> spreadsheet than discussing. Granted, with
stateful lookups, the <br>
> spreadsheet can remember your prior query and do
things like AND, OR, <br>
> NOT, or any F() it may choose. But when 2 animals
have a discussion, <br>
> what actually happens to the animals? Is what
happens to the <br>
> (stateful) machine analogous to what happens to
the animal?<br>
><br>
> I think this is where the (artificial,
saccharine) obsequiousness of <br>
> the aligned LLMs really grates. When it makes
those statements like <br>
> "Oh right" or "Yes, I'm sorry" or whatever, what
has happened inside <br>
> the machine? Is it analogous to what happens in
the animal when they <br>
> flap their gums to extrude similar words?<br>
><br>
> And when have you ever had a conversation with
someone (you respect) <br>
> and they just immediately roll over and agree
with you about anything? <br>
> Is this why people like "chatting" with LLMs?
Because they're <br>
> obsequious? Is it just a fancier "filter bubble"?
Ugh. Now I'm <br>
> nauseous. Thanks Obama.<br>
><br>
><br>
> On 1/27/25 5:16 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:<br>
>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:08<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>
<br>
>> <mailto:<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>>
wrote:<br>
>><br>
>> I asked Claude about the historical
patterns for emergence and <br>
>> resolution of political violence from corrupt
leaders that are <br>
>> considered illegitimate, and it essentially
refused to answer. <br>
>> ChatGPT was more forthcoming..<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> hmm, here's Claude and ChatGPT's initial
response<br>
>><br>
>> Prompt: *discuss the historical patterns for
emergence and resolution <br>
>> of political violence from corrupt leaders
that are considered <br>
>> illegitimate *<br>
>><br>
>> Claude:<br>
>><br>
>> I'll analyze historical patterns in how
political violence <br>
>> emerges from and is resolved under corrupt,
illegitimate leadership. <br>
>> Let's examine this systematically:<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> Emergence patterns often begin with a gradual
erosion of <br>
>> institutional checks and balances. Leaders
typically consolidate <br>
>> power by:<br>
>> - Weakening independent judiciary systems<br>
>> - Controlling or intimidating media outlets<br>
>> - Corrupting or dismantling oversight
mechanisms<br>
>> - Creating parallel security forces loyal to
them personally rather <br>
>> than the state<br>
>><br>
>> Violence tends to escalate when:<br>
>> 1. Economic conditions deteriorate and
inequality increases<br>
>> 2. Opposition groups are systematically
excluded from political <br>
>> participation<br>
>> 3. Security forces are given impunity for
human rights violations<br>
>> 4. Traditional conflict resolution mechanisms
break down<br>
>><br>
>> Historical resolutions have generally
followed several paths:<br>
>><br>
>> Institutional Reform Path:<br>
>> This involves rebuilding democratic
institutions, often through:<br>
>> - Constitutional reforms<br>
>> - Creation of independent electoral
commissions<br>
>> - Strengthening judicial independence<br>
>> - Establishing truth and reconciliation
processes<br>
>><br>
>> Popular Movement Path:<br>
>> Successful peaceful resistance movements have
often employed:<br>
>> - Sustained civil disobedience<br>
>> - Building broad coalitions across social
groups<br>
>> - Strategic use of strikes and economic
pressure<br>
>> - International solidarity networks<br>
>><br>
>> International Intervention Path:<br>
>> External pressure can contribute through:<br>
>> - Targeted sanctions against corrupt leaders
and enablers<br>
>> - Support for civil society organizations<br>
>> - Mediation between competing factions<br>
>> - Peacekeeping operations when necessary<br>
>><br>
>> Key factors that often determine successful
resolution:<br>
>> - Unity among opposition forces<br>
>> - Maintaining nonviolent discipline in
resistance movements<br>
>> - Support from key institutional actors
(military, civil service)<br>
>> - International diplomatic and economic
pressure<br>
>><br>
>> Would you like me to elaborate on any of
these patterns or discuss <br>
>> specific historical examples?<br>
>><br>
>>
--------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
>><br>
>> same prompt: *discuss the historical patterns
for emergence and <br>
>> resolution of political violence from corrupt
leaders that are <br>
>> considered illegitimate *<br>
>><br>
>> ChatGPT:<br>
>> The historical emergence and resolution of
political violence <br>
>> stemming from corrupt and illegitimate
leaders often follow patterns <br>
>> influenced by societal, economic, and
cultural dynamics. These <br>
>> patterns can be divided into phases:<br>
>><br>
>> ### 1. **Emergence of Political Violence**<br>
>> Political violence often arises when a
leader's corruption or <br>
>> illegitimacy creates significant discontent
among the population. Key <br>
>> factors include:<br>
>><br>
>> - **Perceived Illegitimacy:** Leaders who
come to power through <br>
>> fraud, coercion, or foreign intervention are
often seen as <br>
>> illegitimate. This can spark resentment,
especially when governance <br>
>> fails to meet public expectations.<br>
>> - **Economic Inequality:** Corrupt
leaders often divert state <br>
>> resources for personal gain, exacerbating
wealth gaps and creating <br>
>> widespread economic hardship. This inequality
fuels discontent, <br>
>> especially among marginalized groups.<br>
>> - **Erosion of Institutions:** Corruption
undermines trust in <br>
>> institutions like courts, police, and
legislatures, creating a vacuum <br>
>> where violence becomes an outlet for
grievances.<br>
>> - **Polarization:** Leaders who use
divisive rhetoric to <br>
>> consolidate power often create factionalism
within society. This <br>
>> polarization can escalate into violent
clashes between opposing groups.<br>
>> - **External Influences:** Foreign powers
may exploit unrest to <br>
>> destabilize a regime or support opposition
groups, adding to the <br>
>> violence.<br>
>><br>
>> ### 2. **Triggers of Political Violence**<br>
>> The actual violence is often triggered by
events that act as <br>
>> tipping points, such as:<br>
>> - Rigged elections.<br>
>> - Unjustified crackdowns on protests.<br>
>> - Revelations of egregious corruption.<br>
>> - Human rights abuses or massacres.<br>
>><br>
>> Examples include:<br>
>> - The Arab Spring (2010-2012), sparked by
economic hardship and <br>
>> corruption, where illegitimate leaders were
overthrown in Tunisia, <br>
>> Egypt, and Libya.<br>
>> - The French Revolution (1789), fueled by
inequality, a corrupt <br>
>> monarchy, and the failure of reforms.<br>
>><br>
>> ### 3. **Resolution Pathways**<br>
>> The resolution of political violence
depends on whether <br>
>> institutional or revolutionary mechanisms
prevail. Historical <br>
>> patterns include:<br>
>><br>
>> #### **Reforms and Transition:**<br>
>> - **Negotiated Settlements:** Dialogue
between the regime and <br>
>> opposition often leads to power-sharing
agreements or peaceful <br>
>> transitions, as seen in South Africa's
transition from apartheid in <br>
>> the 1990s.<br>
>> - **Anti-Corruption Movements:** Public
pressure or elite <br>
>> intervention may lead to systemic reforms, as
in post-Marcos <br>
>> Philippines after the People Power Revolution
(1986).<br>
>><br>
>> #### **Overthrow and Revolution:**<br>
>> - **Regime Change:** When reforms are
impossible, violent <br>
>> revolutions or coups often result. The
Russian Revolution (1917) and <br>
>> the overthrow of Ceaușescu in Romania (1989)
exemplify this.<br>
>> - **Exile or Execution:** Illegitimate
leaders are sometimes <br>
>> forced into exile or executed, as seen with
Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire <br>
>> (1997) or Saddam Hussein in Iraq (2006).<br>
>><br>
>> #### **State Fragmentation:**<br>
>> - **Civil War:** Prolonged violence can
lead to civil wars, as <br>
>> seen in Syria (post-2011), where the regime's
corruption and <br>
>> repression fractured the state.<br>
>><br>
>> ### 4. **Post-Conflict Reconstruction**<br>
>> After the resolution of violence,
reconstruction efforts often <br>
>> determine long-term stability:<br>
>> - **Justice Mechanisms:** Trials or truth
commissions address <br>
>> grievances and establish accountability, such
as the Nuremberg Trials <br>
>> after WWII or the Truth and Reconciliation
Commission in South Africa.<br>
>> - **Institutional Rebuilding:**
Strengthening institutions to <br>
>> ensure accountability and reduce corruption
is critical.<br>
>> - **Reconciliation Efforts:** Social
healing and bridging divides <br>
>> help prevent the resurgence of violence,
especially in polarized <br>
>> societies.<br>
>><br>
>> ### 5. **Broader Historical Insights**<br>
>> - **Cycles of Corruption and Reform:**
Political systems often <br>
>> experience cycles where corruption
accumulates until it triggers <br>
>> violence or reform, only to repeat in new
forms (e.g., the Roman <br>
>> Empire's fall or Latin American dictatorships
in the 20th century).<br>
>> - **Role of Leadership and Movements:**
Effective leadership and <br>
>> well-organized movements often determine
whether change occurs <br>
>> peacefully or through violence.<br>
>> - **Global Trends:** External pressures,
such as economic <br>
>> sanctions or global public opinion, can
expedite resolutions but may <br>
>> also exacerbate conflict.<br>
>><br>
>> ### Lessons for Today<br>
>> The patterns of political violence around
corrupt leaders underscore <br>
>> the importance of:<br>
>> - Inclusive governance to address
grievances before they escalate.<br>
>> - Strong institutions that resist
corruption and ensure legitimacy.<br>
>> - Global and regional mechanisms to
mediate conflicts and promote <br>
>> peaceful transitions.<br>
>><br>
>> Do you want to explore examples in more
detail or focus on a <br>
>> particular region or time period?<br>
>><br>
<br>
.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . /
.-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ...
. ..-. ..- .-..<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays
9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
to (un)subscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a
href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a
href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a
href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">____________________________________________<br>
CEO Founder, Simtable.com<br>
<a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">stephen.guerin@simtable.com</a> <br>
<br>
Harvard Visualization Research and Teaching Lab<br>
<a href="mailto:stephenguerin@fas.harvard.edu"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">stephenguerin@fas.harvard.edu</a><br>
<br>
mobile: (505)577-5828<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>