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    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/28/25 11:29 AM, Marcus Daniels
      wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN0PR11MB59850F22266996FBF1D93096C5EF2@MN0PR11MB5985.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
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        <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">It could be
            good for Trump to stay, because the betrayal could be deeply
            demoralizing and humiliating to his supporters.   We may
            NEED this damage.  Thomas Friedman noticed a few weeks ago
            that AI was going to be one of Trump’s risks:   More people
            rendered redundant.    </span></p>
      </div>
    </blockquote>
    <p>"Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better"</p>
    <p>    Aphorismically Yours,</p>
    <p> - Sassafrass<br>
    </p>
    <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN0PR11MB59850F22266996FBF1D93096C5EF2@MN0PR11MB5985.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
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        <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
        <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
          <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
              Friam <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stephen
              Guerin<br>
              <b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 28, 2025 10:17 AM<br>
              <b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
              Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
              <b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT<o:p></o:p></span></p>
        </div>
        <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
          </div>
          <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
          <div>
            <div>
              <p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 11:02<span
                  style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>AM
                Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
                  moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
                wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
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                  <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
                      style="font-size:11.0pt">My question was more
                      about how quickly a population can transition from
                      disorder to order.     I was wondering if there
                      were historical examples of these potent immune
                      responses where the resolution was quick.    A
                      contemporary example is the removal of Yoon in
                      South Korea.    The mechanism might vary, but ours
                      is a particularly violent culture. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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            <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
          </div>
          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal">Focusing on Trump as an individual,
              even as a legitimately elected leader, ignores the
              systemic issues that enabled his rise, like institutional
              decay and economic disparity. Political unrest reflects
              deeper societal fractures that persist beyond one
              administration. Unlike South Korea’s removal of Park
              Geun-hye, the U.S. lacks the cohesive trust and mechanisms
              needed for similar reform. Targeting Trump alone risks
              leaving those root causes untouched, inviting the same
              problems to reemerge.<o:p></o:p></p>
          </div>
          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
          </div>
          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal">- Dan<o:p></o:p></p>
          </div>
          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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            <blockquote
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                  <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span
                      style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
                  <div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
                    <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
                        Friam <<a
                          href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
                          target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
                          class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
                        <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stephen Guerin<br>
                        <b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 28, 2025 9:25 AM<br>
                        <b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
                        Coffee Group <<a
                          href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
                          target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
                          class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
                        <b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT</span><o:p></o:p></p>
                  </div>
                  <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
                  <div>
                    <div>
                      <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Prompt:
                        steelman an argument that challenges the premise
                        of my prompt on political violence. Audience
                        FRIAM group email list. Snarky tone. <o:p></o:p></p>
                    </div>
                    <div>
                      <p>Oh, so corruption and illegitimacy are supposed
                        to be the magical catalysts for political
                        violence? That’s an adorably tidy theory. The
                        reality is messier—violence needs a potent brew
                        of economic collapse, inequality, and sometimes
                        foreign meddling, not just a "bad guy" in
                        charge. Plenty of corrupt regimes limp along
                        peacefully with patronage networks and
                        repression, while their citizens begrudgingly
                        prioritize stability over idealistic notions of
                        "legitimacy." And let’s not pretend legitimacy
                        is some universal standard—what’s corrupt to you
                        might be perfectly fine to someone else (hello,
                        cultural relativity). Besides, history is packed
                        with examples of violence against perfectly
                        legitimate leaders because deeper societal
                        fractures were the real issue. So yeah, blaming
                        political violence on corrupt leaders? Cute, but
                        maybe think bigger.<o:p></o:p></p>
                    </div>
                    <div>
                      <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></p>
                      <div>
                        <div>
                          <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">On Tue, Jan
                            28, 2025, 9:01<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>AM steve smith
                            <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
                              target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
                              class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
                            wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
                          <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Glen -<br>
                            <br>
                            I have to agree with you on your rant.  Not
                            just because I suspect that <br>
                            will trigger you, but because it actually
                            "got" to me in a new way.<br>
                            <br>
                            I do use the terminology of "<elaborate
                            statement X> can you <br>
                            reflect/elaborate/discuss/etc on this
                            for/with me?"  at which point it <br>
                            (any given LLM of the moment) is likely to
                            very agreeably <br>
                            (obsequiously?) pretends to do just that.  
                            For my purposes, it is <br>
                            (almost?) as if it is in fact doing "just
                            that"...  but I think I <br>
                            intuitively agree with your
                            instinct/intuition that it is merely <br>
                            "pretending" to do that.<br>
                            <br>
                            Of course, I don't know how this fits into
                            your oft-stated idea that <br>
                            "people don't communicate" or "communication
                            is an illusion"... this <br>
                            bias would suggest that "if people don't
                            actually discuss <br>
                            (communicate?), then there is no reason to
                            believe gradient-descenders <br>
                            on high-dimensional manifolds would either?"<br>
                            <br>
                            I do agree that there is an element that my
                            "discussions" with LLM chat <br>
                            interfaces is a lot like a well-lubricated
                            browsing of spreadsheets <br>
                            and/or wikipedia pages (with spreadsheets
                            and charts and anecdotal <br>
                            examples linked heavily).  But then chatting
                            with others (here included) <br>
                            has a great deal of that quality as well.<br>
                            <br>
                            Mumble,<br>
                            <br>
                              - Steve<br>
                            <br>
                            On 1/28/25 8:44 AM, glen wrote:<br>
                            > I've always been annoyed by
                            [micro]bloggers who will launch a <br>
                            > rhetorical salvo and then write (often
                            shouted with an ! or all caps) <br>
                            > "Discuss!" What Claude and GPT are
                            doing here is not discussing. It's <br>
                            > not even "discursing", which I guess
                            isn't a word. The prompt would <br>
                            > better be "Lecture me on ...". But when
                            I type that into the anthropic <br>
                            > console (3.5-sonnet), I get "I aim to
                            discuss this complex topic <br>
                            > objectively and factually. Key
                            historical patterns include tensions <br>
                            > building over time through economic
                            disparities, erosion of rights, <br>
                            > and repression, often leading to
                            transition through mass movements, <br>
                            > legal reforms, and institutional
                            changes. I can discuss specific <br>
                            > historical examples if you're
                            interested."<br>
                            ><br>
                            > Jesus H Christ. Claude is using your
                            sense of the word "discuss" too! <br>
                            > What has this world come to, where
                            [people|machines] can use any word <br>
                            > they want to mean any thing they want?
                            Get off my lawn!<br>
                            ><br>
                            > More importantly, though, this stuff is
                            gaslighting everyone into <br>
                            > thinking one can *have* a discussion
                            with the machine. Can you? Is it <br>
                            > actually a discussion? I argue "no".
                            It's much more akin to browsing a <br>
                            > spreadsheet than discussing. Granted,
                            with stateful lookups, the <br>
                            > spreadsheet can remember your prior
                            query and do things like AND, OR, <br>
                            > NOT, or any F() it may choose. But when
                            2 animals have a discussion, <br>
                            > what actually happens to the animals?
                            Is what happens to the <br>
                            > (stateful) machine analogous to what
                            happens to the animal?<br>
                            ><br>
                            > I think this is where the (artificial,
                            saccharine) obsequiousness of <br>
                            > the aligned LLMs really grates. When it
                            makes those statements like <br>
                            > "Oh right" or "Yes, I'm sorry" or
                            whatever, what has happened inside <br>
                            > the machine? Is it analogous to what
                            happens in the animal when they <br>
                            > flap their gums to extrude similar
                            words?<br>
                            ><br>
                            > And when have you ever had a
                            conversation with someone (you respect) <br>
                            > and they just immediately roll over and
                            agree with you about anything? <br>
                            > Is this why people like "chatting" with
                            LLMs? Because they're <br>
                            > obsequious? Is it just a fancier
                            "filter bubble"? Ugh. Now I'm <br>
                            > nauseous. Thanks Obama.<br>
                            ><br>
                            ><br>
                            > On 1/27/25 5:16 PM, Stephen Guerin
                            wrote:<br>
                            >> On Fri, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:08<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM Marcus
                            Daniels <<a
                              href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
                              target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
                              class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>
                            <br>
                            >> <mailto:<a
                              href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
                              target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
                              class="moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>>
                            wrote:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     I asked Claude about the
                            historical patterns for emergence and <br>
                            >> resolution of political violence
                            from corrupt leaders that are <br>
                            >> considered illegitimate, and it
                            essentially refused to answer.   <br>
                            >> ChatGPT was more forthcoming..<br>
                            >><br>
                            >><br>
                            >> hmm, here's Claude and ChatGPT's
                            initial response<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Prompt: *discuss the historical
                            patterns for emergence and resolution <br>
                            >> of political violence from corrupt
                            leaders that are considered <br>
                            >> illegitimate *<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Claude:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     I'll analyze historical
                            patterns in how political violence <br>
                            >> emerges from and is resolved under
                            corrupt, illegitimate leadership. <br>
                            >> Let's examine this systematically:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Emergence patterns often begin with
                            a gradual erosion of <br>
                            >> institutional checks and balances.
                            Leaders typically consolidate <br>
                            >> power by:<br>
                            >> - Weakening independent judiciary
                            systems<br>
                            >> - Controlling or intimidating media
                            outlets<br>
                            >> - Corrupting or dismantling
                            oversight mechanisms<br>
                            >> - Creating parallel security forces
                            loyal to them personally rather <br>
                            >> than the state<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Violence tends to escalate when:<br>
                            >> 1. Economic conditions deteriorate
                            and inequality increases<br>
                            >> 2. Opposition groups are
                            systematically excluded from political <br>
                            >> participation<br>
                            >> 3. Security forces are given
                            impunity for human rights violations<br>
                            >> 4. Traditional conflict resolution
                            mechanisms break down<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Historical resolutions have
                            generally followed several paths:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Institutional Reform Path:<br>
                            >> This involves rebuilding democratic
                            institutions, often through:<br>
                            >> - Constitutional reforms<br>
                            >> - Creation of independent electoral
                            commissions<br>
                            >> - Strengthening judicial
                            independence<br>
                            >> - Establishing truth and
                            reconciliation processes<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Popular Movement Path:<br>
                            >> Successful peaceful resistance
                            movements have often employed:<br>
                            >> - Sustained civil disobedience<br>
                            >> - Building broad coalitions across
                            social groups<br>
                            >> - Strategic use of strikes and
                            economic pressure<br>
                            >> - International solidarity networks<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> International Intervention Path:<br>
                            >> External pressure can contribute
                            through:<br>
                            >> - Targeted sanctions against
                            corrupt leaders and enablers<br>
                            >> - Support for civil society
                            organizations<br>
                            >> - Mediation between competing
                            factions<br>
                            >> - Peacekeeping operations when
                            necessary<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Key factors that often determine
                            successful resolution:<br>
                            >> - Unity among opposition forces<br>
                            >> - Maintaining nonviolent discipline
                            in resistance movements<br>
                            >> - Support from key institutional
                            actors (military, civil service)<br>
                            >> - International diplomatic and
                            economic pressure<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Would you like me to elaborate on
                            any of these patterns or discuss <br>
                            >> specific historical examples?<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>
                            --------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> same prompt: *discuss the
                            historical patterns for emergence and <br>
                            >> resolution of political violence
                            from corrupt leaders that are <br>
                            >> considered illegitimate *<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ChatGPT:<br>
                            >> The historical emergence and
                            resolution of political violence <br>
                            >> stemming from corrupt and
                            illegitimate leaders often follow patterns <br>
                            >> influenced by societal, economic,
                            and cultural dynamics. These <br>
                            >> patterns can be divided into
                            phases:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### 1. **Emergence of Political
                            Violence**<br>
                            >>     Political violence often arises
                            when a leader's corruption or <br>
                            >> illegitimacy creates significant
                            discontent among the population. Key <br>
                            >> factors include:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     - **Perceived Illegitimacy:**
                            Leaders who come to power through <br>
                            >> fraud, coercion, or foreign
                            intervention are often seen as <br>
                            >> illegitimate. This can spark
                            resentment, especially when governance <br>
                            >> fails to meet public expectations.<br>
                            >>     - **Economic Inequality:**
                            Corrupt leaders often divert state <br>
                            >> resources for personal gain,
                            exacerbating wealth gaps and creating <br>
                            >> widespread economic hardship. This
                            inequality fuels discontent, <br>
                            >> especially among marginalized
                            groups.<br>
                            >>     - **Erosion of Institutions:**
                            Corruption undermines trust in <br>
                            >> institutions like courts, police,
                            and legislatures, creating a vacuum <br>
                            >> where violence becomes an outlet
                            for grievances.<br>
                            >>     - **Polarization:** Leaders who
                            use divisive rhetoric to <br>
                            >> consolidate power often create
                            factionalism within society. This <br>
                            >> polarization can escalate into
                            violent clashes between opposing groups.<br>
                            >>     - **External Influences:**
                            Foreign powers may exploit unrest to <br>
                            >> destabilize a regime or support
                            opposition groups, adding to the <br>
                            >> violence.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### 2. **Triggers of Political
                            Violence**<br>
                            >>     The actual violence is often
                            triggered by events that act as <br>
                            >> tipping points, such as:<br>
                            >>     - Rigged elections.<br>
                            >>     - Unjustified crackdowns on
                            protests.<br>
                            >>     - Revelations of egregious
                            corruption.<br>
                            >>     - Human rights abuses or
                            massacres.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     Examples include:<br>
                            >>     - The Arab Spring (2010-2012),
                            sparked by economic hardship and <br>
                            >> corruption, where illegitimate
                            leaders were overthrown in Tunisia, <br>
                            >> Egypt, and Libya.<br>
                            >>     - The French Revolution (1789),
                            fueled by inequality, a corrupt <br>
                            >> monarchy, and the failure of
                            reforms.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### 3. **Resolution Pathways**<br>
                            >>     The resolution of political
                            violence depends on whether <br>
                            >> institutional or revolutionary
                            mechanisms prevail. Historical <br>
                            >> patterns include:<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     #### **Reforms and
                            Transition:**<br>
                            >>     - **Negotiated Settlements:**
                            Dialogue between the regime and <br>
                            >> opposition often leads to
                            power-sharing agreements or peaceful <br>
                            >> transitions, as seen in South
                            Africa's transition from apartheid in <br>
                            >> the 1990s.<br>
                            >>     - **Anti-Corruption
                            Movements:** Public pressure or elite <br>
                            >> intervention may lead to systemic
                            reforms, as in post-Marcos <br>
                            >> Philippines after the People Power
                            Revolution (1986).<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     #### **Overthrow and
                            Revolution:**<br>
                            >>     - **Regime Change:** When
                            reforms are impossible, violent <br>
                            >> revolutions or coups often result.
                            The Russian Revolution (1917) and <br>
                            >> the overthrow of Ceaușescu in
                            Romania (1989) exemplify this.<br>
                            >>     - **Exile or Execution:**
                            Illegitimate leaders are sometimes <br>
                            >> forced into exile or executed, as
                            seen with Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire <br>
                            >> (1997) or Saddam Hussein in Iraq
                            (2006).<br>
                            >><br>
                            >>     #### **State Fragmentation:**<br>
                            >>     - **Civil War:** Prolonged
                            violence can lead to civil wars, as <br>
                            >> seen in Syria (post-2011), where
                            the regime's corruption and <br>
                            >> repression fractured the state.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### 4. **Post-Conflict
                            Reconstruction**<br>
                            >>     After the resolution of
                            violence, reconstruction efforts often <br>
                            >> determine long-term stability:<br>
                            >>     - **Justice Mechanisms:**
                            Trials or truth commissions address <br>
                            >> grievances and establish
                            accountability, such as the Nuremberg Trials
                            <br>
                            >> after WWII or the Truth and
                            Reconciliation Commission in South Africa.<br>
                            >>     - **Institutional Rebuilding:**
                            Strengthening institutions to <br>
                            >> ensure accountability and reduce
                            corruption is critical.<br>
                            >>     - **Reconciliation Efforts:**
                            Social healing and bridging divides <br>
                            >> help prevent the resurgence of
                            violence, especially in polarized <br>
                            >> societies.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### 5. **Broader Historical
                            Insights**<br>
                            >>     - **Cycles of Corruption and
                            Reform:** Political systems often <br>
                            >> experience cycles where corruption
                            accumulates until it triggers <br>
                            >> violence or reform, only to repeat
                            in new forms (e.g., the Roman <br>
                            >> Empire's fall or Latin American
                            dictatorships in the 20th century).<br>
                            >>     - **Role of Leadership and
                            Movements:** Effective leadership and <br>
                            >> well-organized movements often
                            determine whether change occurs <br>
                            >> peacefully or through violence.<br>
                            >>     - **Global Trends:** External
                            pressures, such as economic <br>
                            >> sanctions or global public opinion,
                            can expedite resolutions but may <br>
                            >> also exacerbate conflict.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> ### Lessons for Today<br>
                            >> The patterns of political violence
                            around corrupt leaders underscore <br>
                            >> the importance of:<br>
                            >>     - Inclusive governance to
                            address grievances before they escalate.<br>
                            >>     - Strong institutions that
                            resist corruption and ensure legitimacy.<br>
                            >>     - Global and regional
                            mechanisms to mediate conflicts and promote
                            <br>
                            >> peaceful transitions.<br>
                            >><br>
                            >> Do you want to explore examples in
                            more detail or focus on a <br>
                            >> particular region or time period?<br>
                            >><br>
                            <br>
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                      <p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">____________________________________________<br>
                        CEO Founder, Simtable.com<br>
                        <a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com"
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                        <br>
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