<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><span style="font-size:14.6667px"><b><i><u>For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla. Waymo is very conspicuous and popular in San Francisco. </u></i></b></span></div><div dir="ltr"><span style="font-size:14.6667px"><br></span></div><div>If you want me to place a bet, I need the fine print—short, medium, or long term? US, China, or global rollout? And, of course, the risk-reward profile—are we playing it safe or swinging for the fences?<br><br>Now, I think some of you might suspect that my knee-jerk reaction might be to bet on Tesla, but if we're for example talking short-term in the US with a conservative risk-reward ratio, I'll also hedge my bet with Waymo too. After all, Waymo is practically a local celebrity in San Francisco, while Tesla’s robotaxi dreams are still stuck in traffic.<br><br>Also, if the fine print specifies China, BYD would be a good bet.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 at 19:40, Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div class="msg2945326131785689050"><div lang="EN-US" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div class="m_2945326131785689050WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt">I find the OpenAI purchase attempt strange. He must really have an inferiority complex, since xAI has the hardware now to compete.[1] Or maybe they have the money and brawn but not the brains?<br><br>For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla. Waymo is very conspicuous and popular in San Francisco. <u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"><br>[1] <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/xai-raises-another-6bn-including-from-nvidia-and-amd/" target="_blank">https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/xai-raises-another-6bn-including-from-nvidia-and-amd/</a><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt solid rgb(181,196,223);padding:3pt 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12pt"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of Jon Zingale <<a href="mailto:jonzingale@gmail.com" target="_blank">jonzingale@gmail.com</a>><br><b>Date: </b>Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:13 AM<br><b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] OpenAI and the fight between Elon and Sam<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)">"</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:black">Apparently, Tesla only managed to show profitability last quarter due to unrealized earnings on Bitcoin. Stock is way overvalued."</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:black">Technically, I would put a short-term (let's say 3 year) fair value around $210 or so, but would likely wait to pay $150-$160. Fundamentally, I would like to see the market cap closer to $300 B.</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><u></u><u></u></span></p></div></div></div></div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>
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