<div dir="auto"><div>You're assuming the ongoing presence of Trump and Putin.</div><div dir="auto">I don't know about Putin, but Trump is a cult leader. If something happens to him, Vance etc al. can't carry the water.</div><div dir="auto">T</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><br></div><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">=======================<br>Tom Johnson<br>Inst. for Analytic Journalism<br>Santa Fe, New Mexico<br>505-577-6482<br>=======================</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, 9:44 PM steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><u></u>
<div>
<p>Friday afternoon the simple term "WWIII" took on a whole new
understanding/context for me.</p>
<p>Before that it was some variation on a nuclear exchange between
any 2-3 of the major nuclear powers (US/USSR/China) which was held
at bay mostly by variations on MAD. Not only did the possibility
of retaliation (before first-strike lands, or soon after) make it
unthinkable, but so did the challenges of regional and global
nuclear contamination and a likely nuclear winter (minimum of
northern hemisphere, but global consequences).</p>
<p>Now I see it being something more like a new European War similar
to WWI & WWII, not involving North America directly (we don't
pitch nor catch any)<br>
</p>
<ol>
<li>Europe sends in air and ground troops (and more equipment) to
Ukraine to squash Putin's vestigal army. Marcus' no-fly-zone.</li>
<ol>
<li>Ukraine continues to punish Russia (e.g. destroying military
assets inside Russia)</li>
<li>The European coalition masses conventional forces on Russian
borders with a "ready posture"</li>
<li>Russia is humiliated.</li>
<li>Putin (not Russia) in his humiliation decides to use his
nukes... craters half the major cities or capitols in UK/EU.</li>
<li>France and UK have a *handful* of nukes. I'm out of date,
most or all are on nuclear subs which Russia may or may not
know the location of.</li>
<li>Moscow and a few 'grads become craters.</li>
<li>Nuclear Winter</li>
<li>Misery across Eurasia, the likes of which Russians are more
accustomed</li>
</ol>
<li>Europe can't agree enough to give Ukraine decisive support (as
in 1 above).</li>
<ol>
<li>Russia grinds Ukraine down, while using up yet more of it's
own dwindling military and human capital.</li>
<li>Europe and Russia rattle sabers for months or years but
Russia is too depleted to continue a conventional war.</li>
<li>Russia (Putin) gets impatient or arrogant and decides to
nuke European powers.</li>
<li>Again, the handful of non-US nukes targeted on Russia are
enough to make a bad mess and maybe even win but only if used
pre-emptively.</li>
<li>(Western) Eurasia is a mess for a century.<br>
</li>
</ol>
<li>In either case MAGA (with/without Trump alive/vital/engaged)
sits back and eats popcorn.</li>
<ol>
<li>If MAGA holds US power, they grind away at European and
possibly Russian resources, stealing and war profiteering
boldly.</li>
<li>Maybe anti-MAGA backlashes MAGA out of power (probably has
to be a strong political win followed by some minor but
decisive bloodshed). Maybe we help them rebuild (similar to
post-WWII) or maybe we just sit back on our side of the Ocean.</li>
</ol>
<li>China waits patiently for the right moment to grab Mongolia
for it's "raw earth" (trump SIC) and/or Taiwan.... possibly are
both worth their effort... possibly the US uses the European
distraction as an opportunity to treat China as our only overt
competitor.<br>
</li>
</ol>
<p>I don't see the world "a better place" for any of this except in
the extreme case of significant depopulation of both (sadly)
third-world innocents and first-world belligerents (military,
political, economic), and even then it isn't clear to me just
*when* or *how* the "meek inherit the earth" but I'll be damned if
it isn't an outcome I find myself rooting for! Feels like if
COVID had just been slightly more virulent, we might have gotten
there by a vaguely more graceful route?</p>
<p>GAH!<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div>On 3/3/25 9:10 PM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<ol style="margin-top:0in" type="1" start="1">
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">NATO creates a no-fly zone over
Ukraine, and destroys any Russian asset in Ukraine <u></u><u></u></span></li>
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The Ukranians continue to develop
their drone programs for targeted attacks in Russia<u></u><u></u></span></li>
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Europe gives them long-range
weapons, Storm Shadow and Taurus for larger targets<u></u><u></u></span></li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Biden should
have just done this, knowing that Trump would throw the
world into chaos.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Friam <a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Pieter
Steenekamp<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, March 3, 2025 7:50 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm
enjoying the popcorn.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of Ukraine<br>
<br>
The Case Against Trump <br>
Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been fighting back
heroically for three years. It is crucial to take decisive
action against countries that invade others unprovoked. A
good example is the First Gulf War, when Iraq invaded
Kuwait, and the U.S. led a coalition to push Iraq out. That
kind of response helps maintain international order. <br>
<br>
However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor and
openly aligns himself with Putin. His stance undermines the
principle of standing against aggression and emboldens
authoritarian regimes. His willingness to cozy up to Putin
is simply wrong. Period. <br>
<br>
The Case For Trump <br>
Maintaining international order is important, but only if
you have the power to enforce it effectively. If you can't
win a war, engaging in it is a mistake. Consider how the
U.S. aligned with Stalin in the later stages of World War
II—not because Stalin was good, but because confronting him
directly wasn’t a realistic option at the time. Putin may be
an amateur compared to Stalin, but the logic remains: if you
can’t stop him, you may have to find a way to work with him.
<br>
<br>
Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path to
pushing Russia out of Ukraine unless the U.S. commits
fully—boots on the ground. But no one in America supports
that. Given this, there’s a case for engaging with Russia
pragmatically, much like how the U.S. dealt with Stalin, to
bring the war to an end. <br>
<br>
Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly, without full
military commitment, has serious downsides. The war could
drag on indefinitely, and if Ukraine eventually wins, Russia
would be humiliated. A humiliated nuclear-armed Russia is a
dangerous prospect. History offers a warning—Germany’s
humiliation after World War I directly contributed to the
rise of Hitler. The consequences of a humiliated Russia
could be similarly unpredictable and catastrophic. <br>
<br>
My Take <br>
In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in South
Africa—Nelson Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no longer with
us. But surely, with today's AI, we could create a virtual
Madiba, and he would know exactly what to do. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28, Tom
Johnson <<a href="mailto:jtjohnson555@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">jtjohnson555@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img style="width:.0119in;height:.0119in" id="m_7201110000109307646_x0000_i1025" src="https://www.cloudhq-mkt29.us/mail_track/mail/15e70d95bd44020166_1741033638198?uid=226430" width="1" height="1" border="0">So
as usual: Follow the Money.<br>
If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare earth
minerals, upon leaving Ukraine, where does that ore go
and to whom? My bet is to some company(ies) that Trump
et al. have interests in.<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">TJ<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 12:33<span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
Santafe <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s such an encapsulation of that
part of the society (including t and v) to think that
they could “humiliate” Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a
conversation with toxic scum, on the relevance of
reality, he was about the only clean thing in the room
that could be heard.<br>
<br>
There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think that
trump can be somehow managed by a canny player. That
doesn’t ring correct to me, unless the player has a
lot of power and money, and it is the power and money
that are managing trump. No agreement with trump is
worth the paper it is written on. We all understand
that he will do anything he is not stopped from
doing. The problem with the american presidency is
that there become fewer and fewer actors who can stop
its occupant from doing things, in the era of
political parties as universalizing corrupting
bodies. If this whole train continues, they will
eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and power enough
that its ability to do damage declines. But there is
so much accumulated right now, that they can do
enormous harm before they undercut themselves. <br>
<br>
I am persuaded by those who opine that trump has no
intention of doing anything to aid Ukraine, and that
the point of the performance was to put up a front for
not doing anything, for the same audience who
interprets any of that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy.
If trump could extort money or resource access, and
then backstab in return for it, I expect he would be
interested in that opportunity. But not more than
that.<br>
<br>
I also think that people are living a little bit in
the past when they comment that, with trump, it’s
always about money. That was before the first
presidency, when his possibilities to exercise abusive
power over other people in a country with some degree
of rule of law was limited, relative to the amount of
spending he could do (whether solvent or insolvent).
But the access to abusive power in the presidency, for
a sociopath, is on a scale not available to anybody
else. If money was heroin for that addiction, the
power of the presidency is fentanyl, and I don’t think
trump is going back now. Money: fine; but that’s now
the second motive. <br>
<br>
(I think there are elements of this for Musk as well,
but there is enough about him that is different that I
wouldn’t put him in the same category, or in the same
post here.)<br>
<br>
I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I don’t even
have any sophistication thinking in this sphere. But
from my long distance from it, I can imagine that the
calculus is roughly this at the moment: It is still
possible that trump won’t direct the u.s. military to
attack Ukraine directly. The question whether it is
possible comes back, entirely, to what force is
available to stop him from ordering it. I don’t doubt
for a minute that, if the EU starts to get scared, and
if they have time to act constructively, enough to
start to give Ukraine meaningful ability to hold land
or push back a bit, the u.s. under trump would act as
a saboteur of that effort. <br>
<br>
If that is the correct vantage point, I would imagine
that Zelenskyy’s challenge is to try to orient the
rest of the world into some structure that will hem
trump and the trumpers in as much as possible from
direct attack, and where possible against sabotage.
(Sabotage is harder, because to even find out that it
is going on, you need somebody on the inside to
report.) If they can get some weapons out of the
weapons contractors and the congressmen, sure; try to
do what you can. But any of that has meaning only
when it is in your hands and being used. Don’t put
weight on anything short of that.<br>
<br>
(I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the true
problem that the current condition is a WWI-type
trench warfare with drones, and the prospect of
extending that to a point of collapse is already so
bad, that it takes something truly awful for that not
to be the worst. I don’t see indication that any
good-faith actor anywhere is denying that, though I
don’t think saying it, alone, makes one a good-faith
actor.)<br>
<br>
<br>
I had a conversation with a friend over the weekend
who is a NASA program manager, and who interpreted a
recent directive they had received, to discontinue the
use of paper straws, and replace them with plastic
straws, as a kickback to some petroleum company that
had bribed trump. Given that this is a smart person I
am talking to, the quaintness of that interpretation
took my breath away. It seems clear beyond daylight,
to me, that the images of turtles with straws in their
noses, and seabirds dead of them, were the
breakthrough that the environmental groups finally got
with the public, to get some action to ban that
specific plastic item as one of the most insidiously
dangerous and cruel. The point of the paper-straw ban
was the point of everything with these people. Most
directly, it was an intent to deliver a “defeat” to
the environmental groups, focusing on the image that
had succeeded for them precisely because it is so
awful to have to see more of. But more generally,
this is the core of meanness. It is a rage, by those
who are defiled in their nature, against the existence
of anything that isn’t defiled. <br>
<br>
This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the
last-century European political actors: that they
didn’t understand the distinction between the parties
and the movements. The parties wanted to control the
government, whereas the movements wanted to destroy
the government. Public commentary on this drives me
nuts, because it seems to exactly repeat this error.
People talk about the appointments of degraded morons
to agency heads as being about loyalty: take somebody
who couldn’t earn anything in a world of merit, and
put him on a plush perch that he knows he will only
retain as long as he can continue to curry favor. But
I believe that only to about a 30% level as the
motive. And it is an inward-facing motive; how to
keep various functionaries on a leash. There is an
outward-directed motive, and I think that is about 70%
of the drive. These people are put there, because he
couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the effort to
eliminate the notion of legitimacy from the concept of
society people will adopt and live within. <br>
<br>
The word I wanted to use for the latter, thinking over
the weekend, was “vesting”. It’s a bit of a bland
word, but it wraps up several things that otherwise I
can’t encompass in one word. The cognitive concept of
truth; abstract notions such as justice; the society
as an agreement underpinned by legitimized
institutions. What all these have in common is that
people accept restraint to uphold a prior commitment
to these other things as “higher” over the long run.
And when the mob wants to destroy the state — meaning,
really to destroy that concept of society — it is this
“higher” that they can keep their attention fixed on,
as all the other particular targets (immigrants,
academics, civil servants, black people, gay people,
etc.) get rotated in and out as opportunities arise.
<br>
<br>
So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns out to
be, over time, a loss for Zelenskyy — the reality
behind the literary Faustian Bargain — he may not be
worse off having the break occur earlier. I don’t
know what it may buy him to have humiliated t and v,
by having the dignity to not accept those terms of
conversation, in terms of coalition-building with
other heads of state. <br>
<br>
<br>
I do continue to wonder what China’s play in this will
be. I imagine they think they will have no trouble
“managing” Russia into some kind of continuing
subordinate status, when it is alone with a gigantic
land area but a limited economy and population. If it
were even just Russia swallowing Ukraine, China might
still think of that as an okay outcome. I feel pretty
sure they want the rare earths, in view of their
relations with Mongolia up to now, and the fact that
the only thing protecting Taiwan is that it holds the
entire world’s highest technology as a trust, and
collapsing it would cause such a large global
implosion that it would destabilize China as well, for
now. But they probably figure they can get those from
Russian control, where Russia couldn’t develop them
internally anyway. An actual coalition of Russia with
the U.S., however, could become more worrisome for
China, even if the U.S. is undergoing a process of
self-degradation. So it is not inconceivable to me
that China could want some stalemate to go on a while
longer, which limits the coordination of the trumpers
with other large actors as much as feasible. Another
Faustian bargain for Zelenskyy if it is offered. But
maybe more predictable in the short term. <br>
<br>
But there, too, I don’t know anything.<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
> <br>
> <br>
>> It's way too generous to say "Trump has a
case". Trump and Vance's "case" consists of "You
should be grateful to us because we give you money".
I.e. suck up to me and I'll deign to give you more
money.<br>
> I don't think Trump or Vance have backed any
significant support for Ukraine. The US people
through our elected representatives and tax dollars
*HAVE* supported Ukraine (albeit a little slowly an a
little anemically and a little timidly sometimes?).
Zelensky has been extravagantly and eloquently
thankful to all of the above. Trump and Vance were
spoiling for an opportunity to try to humiliate
Zelensky in front of the cameras, so they contrived
it.<br>
>> Maybe someone makes the case you say is
Trump's. But it's not Trump making that case. If he
sporadically vomits words that sound like that, it's
because they were put into his mouth by someone else.
The question is Who put them there? Putin? Elno?
Thiel?<br>
> <br>
> The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was extortion.
Whether Ukraine's mineral resources could or should
be mortgaged to secure the financial support is one
thing, but the idea that the point of the West
supporting Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive
Putin-led Russia is about economics completely misses
the point. Zelensky is right to avoid "doing
business with" anyone who is not a clear staunch ally
when in this situation.<br>
> <br>
> Trump & Allies are clearly "War Profiteers",
a fine old tradition among the industrialists and
financiers of the "free world".<br>
> <br>
> <br>
>> <br>
>> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<br>
>>> Just watched a new episode where two
toddlers threw their toys out of the cot.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> Zelensky makes a strong case — Putin is
unreliable, having broken numerous agreements in the
past, so any peace deal would need ironclad security
guarantees. But lecturing Trump is hardly the way to
secure a favorable minerals trade agreement.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> Trump also has a valid case — the war is
stagnating, there’s no realistic military path to
driving Russia out of Ukraine, and pursuing peace
makes sense. But losing your temper at an
international press conference is not the way to get
there.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> At the end of the day, they’re all human,
and it makes for great real-life drama. I can't wait
for the next episode!<br>
>>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span>-- </span><u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">++++++++++++++++++++++++++++<br>
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<b><a href="https://nmwriters.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">New Mexico Writers</a><br>
</b>++++++++++++++++++++++++++++<u></u><u></u></p>
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<pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
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