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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 3/4/25 10:15 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CABg8s8K_4ZRhE4rpoUwcKm3ARwprqZU+bAdygH0fz7rPZpJJLw@mail.gmail.com">
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<div>You're assuming the ongoing presence of Trump and Putin.</div>
<div dir="auto">I don't know about Putin, but Trump is a cult
leader. If something happens to him, Vance etc al. can't carry
the water.</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>I agree, nobody able to carry Trump's nor Putin's water (as it
were)... a bit of a red=herring at that point... some wild card
might appear out of nowhere and (mis)fill the void in some
unexpected way (e.g. Asimov's "Mule" of "theFoundation"?)</p>
<p>One tiny anueurism or a dose of pollonium in the diet coke or
some Ioicane Powder and the modern world diffracts off into some
strange new basin of attraction we haven't even imagined?</p>
<p><i>Viva la punctuated equllibrium!<br>
</i></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CABg8s8K_4ZRhE4rpoUwcKm3ARwprqZU+bAdygH0fz7rPZpJJLw@mail.gmail.com">
<div dir="auto">
<div dir="auto">T</div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div data-smartmail="gmail_signature">=======================<br>
Tom Johnson<br>
Inst. for Analytic Journalism<br>
Santa Fe, New Mexico<br>
505-577-6482<br>
=======================</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, 9:44 PM
steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>Friday afternoon the simple term "WWIII" took on a whole
new understanding/context for me.</p>
<p>Before that it was some variation on a nuclear exchange
between any 2-3 of the major nuclear powers
(US/USSR/China) which was held at bay mostly by variations
on MAD. Not only did the possibility of retaliation
(before first-strike lands, or soon after) make it
unthinkable, but so did the challenges of regional and
global nuclear contamination and a likely nuclear winter
(minimum of northern hemisphere, but global consequences).</p>
<p>Now I see it being something more like a new European War
similar to WWI & WWII, not involving North America
directly (we don't pitch nor catch any)<br>
</p>
<ol>
<li>Europe sends in air and ground troops (and more
equipment) to Ukraine to squash Putin's vestigal army.
Marcus' no-fly-zone.</li>
<ol>
<li>Ukraine continues to punish Russia (e.g. destroying
military assets inside Russia)</li>
<li>The European coalition masses conventional forces on
Russian borders with a "ready posture"</li>
<li>Russia is humiliated.</li>
<li>Putin (not Russia) in his humiliation decides to use
his nukes... craters half the major cities or
capitols in UK/EU.</li>
<li>France and UK have a *handful* of nukes. I'm out of
date, most or all are on nuclear subs which Russia may
or may not know the location of.</li>
<li>Moscow and a few 'grads become craters.</li>
<li>Nuclear Winter</li>
<li>Misery across Eurasia, the likes of which Russians
are more accustomed</li>
</ol>
<li>Europe can't agree enough to give Ukraine decisive
support (as in 1 above).</li>
<ol>
<li>Russia grinds Ukraine down, while using up yet more
of it's own dwindling military and human capital.</li>
<li>Europe and Russia rattle sabers for months or years
but Russia is too depleted to continue a conventional
war.</li>
<li>Russia (Putin) gets impatient or arrogant and
decides to nuke European powers.</li>
<li>Again, the handful of non-US nukes targeted on
Russia are enough to make a bad mess and maybe even
win but only if used pre-emptively.</li>
<li>(Western) Eurasia is a mess for a century.<br>
</li>
</ol>
<li>In either case MAGA (with/without Trump
alive/vital/engaged) sits back and eats popcorn.</li>
<ol>
<li>If MAGA holds US power, they grind away at European
and possibly Russian resources, stealing and war
profiteering boldly.</li>
<li>Maybe anti-MAGA backlashes MAGA out of power
(probably has to be a strong political win followed by
some minor but decisive bloodshed). Maybe we help
them rebuild (similar to post-WWII) or maybe we just
sit back on our side of the Ocean.</li>
</ol>
<li>China waits patiently for the right moment to grab
Mongolia for it's "raw earth" (trump SIC) and/or
Taiwan.... possibly are both worth their effort...
possibly the US uses the European distraction as an
opportunity to treat China as our only overt competitor.<br>
</li>
</ol>
<p>I don't see the world "a better place" for any of this
except in the extreme case of significant depopulation of
both (sadly) third-world innocents and first-world
belligerents (military, political, economic), and even
then it isn't clear to me just *when* or *how* the "meek
inherit the earth" but I'll be damned if it isn't an
outcome I find myself rooting for! Feels like if COVID
had just been slightly more virulent, we might have gotten
there by a vaguely more graceful route?</p>
<p>GAH!<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div>On 3/3/25 9:10 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<ol style="margin-top:0in" type="1" start="1">
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">NATO creates a no-fly
zone over Ukraine, and destroys any Russian asset
in Ukraine </span></li>
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">The Ukranians continue to
develop their drone programs for targeted attacks
in Russia</span></li>
<li style="margin-left:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Europe gives them
long-range weapons, Storm Shadow and Taurus for
larger targets</span></li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Biden
should have just done this, knowing that Trump would
throw the world into chaos.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></p>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Friam <a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Pieter Steenekamp<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, March 3, 2025 7:50 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm
enjoying the popcorn.</span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of
Ukraine<br>
<br>
The Case Against Trump <br>
Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been
fighting back heroically for three years. It is
crucial to take decisive action against countries
that invade others unprovoked. A good example is the
First Gulf War, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the
U.S. led a coalition to push Iraq out. That kind of
response helps maintain international order. <br>
<br>
However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor
and openly aligns himself with Putin. His stance
undermines the principle of standing against
aggression and emboldens authoritarian regimes. His
willingness to cozy up to Putin is simply wrong.
Period. <br>
<br>
The Case For Trump <br>
Maintaining international order is important, but
only if you have the power to enforce it
effectively. If you can't win a war, engaging in it
is a mistake. Consider how the U.S. aligned with
Stalin in the later stages of World War II—not
because Stalin was good, but because confronting him
directly wasn’t a realistic option at the time.
Putin may be an amateur compared to Stalin, but the
logic remains: if you can’t stop him, you may have
to find a way to work with him. <br>
<br>
Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path
to pushing Russia out of Ukraine unless the U.S.
commits fully—boots on the ground. But no one in
America supports that. Given this, there’s a case
for engaging with Russia pragmatically, much like
how the U.S. dealt with Stalin, to bring the war to
an end. <br>
<br>
Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly,
without full military commitment, has serious
downsides. The war could drag on indefinitely, and
if Ukraine eventually wins, Russia would be
humiliated. A humiliated nuclear-armed Russia is a
dangerous prospect. History offers a
warning—Germany’s humiliation after World War I
directly contributed to the rise of Hitler. The
consequences of a humiliated Russia could be
similarly unpredictable and catastrophic. <br>
<br>
My Take <br>
In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in
South Africa—Nelson Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no
longer with us. But surely, with today's AI, we
could create a virtual Madiba, and he would know
exactly what to do. </p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28,
Tom Johnson <<a
href="mailto:jtjohnson555@gmail.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jtjohnson555@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img
style="width:.0119in;height:.0119in"
id="m_7201110000109307646_x0000_i1025"
src="https://www.cloudhq-mkt29.us/mail_track/mail/15e70d95bd44020166_1741033638198?uid=226430"
moz-do-not-send="true" width="1" height="1"
border="0">So as usual: Follow the Money.<br>
If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare
earth minerals, upon leaving Ukraine, where does
that ore go and to whom? My bet is to some
company(ies) that Trump et al. have interests
in.</p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">TJ</p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at
12:33<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM Santafe <<a
href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s such an encapsulation
of that part of the society (including t and
v) to think that they could “humiliate”
Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a conversation
with toxic scum, on the relevance of reality,
he was about the only clean thing in the room
that could be heard.<br>
<br>
There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think
that trump can be somehow managed by a canny
player. That doesn’t ring correct to me,
unless the player has a lot of power and
money, and it is the power and money that are
managing trump. No agreement with trump is
worth the paper it is written on. We all
understand that he will do anything he is not
stopped from doing. The problem with the
american presidency is that there become fewer
and fewer actors who can stop its occupant
from doing things, in the era of political
parties as universalizing corrupting bodies.
If this whole train continues, they will
eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and
power enough that its ability to do damage
declines. But there is so much accumulated
right now, that they can do enormous harm
before they undercut themselves. <br>
<br>
I am persuaded by those who opine that trump
has no intention of doing anything to aid
Ukraine, and that the point of the performance
was to put up a front for not doing anything,
for the same audience who interprets any of
that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy. If trump
could extort money or resource access, and
then backstab in return for it, I expect he
would be interested in that opportunity. But
not more than that.<br>
<br>
I also think that people are living a little
bit in the past when they comment that, with
trump, it’s always about money. That was
before the first presidency, when his
possibilities to exercise abusive power over
other people in a country with some degree of
rule of law was limited, relative to the
amount of spending he could do (whether
solvent or insolvent). But the access to
abusive power in the presidency, for a
sociopath, is on a scale not available to
anybody else. If money was heroin for that
addiction, the power of the presidency is
fentanyl, and I don’t think trump is going
back now. Money: fine; but that’s now the
second motive. <br>
<br>
(I think there are elements of this for Musk
as well, but there is enough about him that is
different that I wouldn’t put him in the same
category, or in the same post here.)<br>
<br>
I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I
don’t even have any sophistication thinking in
this sphere. But from my long distance from
it, I can imagine that the calculus is roughly
this at the moment: It is still possible that
trump won’t direct the u.s. military to attack
Ukraine directly. The question whether it is
possible comes back, entirely, to what force
is available to stop him from ordering it. I
don’t doubt for a minute that, if the EU
starts to get scared, and if they have time to
act constructively, enough to start to give
Ukraine meaningful ability to hold land or
push back a bit, the u.s. under trump would
act as a saboteur of that effort. <br>
<br>
If that is the correct vantage point, I would
imagine that Zelenskyy’s challenge is to try
to orient the rest of the world into some
structure that will hem trump and the trumpers
in as much as possible from direct attack, and
where possible against sabotage. (Sabotage is
harder, because to even find out that it is
going on, you need somebody on the inside to
report.) If they can get some weapons out of
the weapons contractors and the congressmen,
sure; try to do what you can. But any of that
has meaning only when it is in your hands and
being used. Don’t put weight on anything
short of that.<br>
<br>
(I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the
true problem that the current condition is a
WWI-type trench warfare with drones, and the
prospect of extending that to a point of
collapse is already so bad, that it takes
something truly awful for that not to be the
worst. I don’t see indication that any
good-faith actor anywhere is denying that,
though I don’t think saying it, alone, makes
one a good-faith actor.)<br>
<br>
<br>
I had a conversation with a friend over the
weekend who is a NASA program manager, and who
interpreted a recent directive they had
received, to discontinue the use of paper
straws, and replace them with plastic straws,
as a kickback to some petroleum company that
had bribed trump. Given that this is a smart
person I am talking to, the quaintness of that
interpretation took my breath away. It seems
clear beyond daylight, to me, that the images
of turtles with straws in their noses, and
seabirds dead of them, were the breakthrough
that the environmental groups finally got with
the public, to get some action to ban that
specific plastic item as one of the most
insidiously dangerous and cruel. The point of
the paper-straw ban was the point of
everything with these people. Most directly,
it was an intent to deliver a “defeat” to the
environmental groups, focusing on the image
that had succeeded for them precisely because
it is so awful to have to see more of. But
more generally, this is the core of meanness.
It is a rage, by those who are defiled in
their nature, against the existence of
anything that isn’t defiled. <br>
<br>
This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the
last-century European political actors: that
they didn’t understand the distinction between
the parties and the movements. The parties
wanted to control the government, whereas the
movements wanted to destroy the government.
Public commentary on this drives me nuts,
because it seems to exactly repeat this
error. People talk about the appointments of
degraded morons to agency heads as being about
loyalty: take somebody who couldn’t earn
anything in a world of merit, and put him on a
plush perch that he knows he will only retain
as long as he can continue to curry favor.
But I believe that only to about a 30% level
as the motive. And it is an inward-facing
motive; how to keep various functionaries on a
leash. There is an outward-directed motive,
and I think that is about 70% of the drive.
These people are put there, because he
couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the
effort to eliminate the notion of legitimacy
from the concept of society people will adopt
and live within. <br>
<br>
The word I wanted to use for the latter,
thinking over the weekend, was “vesting”.
It’s a bit of a bland word, but it wraps up
several things that otherwise I can’t
encompass in one word. The cognitive concept
of truth; abstract notions such as justice;
the society as an agreement underpinned by
legitimized institutions. What all these have
in common is that people accept restraint to
uphold a prior commitment to these other
things as “higher” over the long run. And
when the mob wants to destroy the state —
meaning, really to destroy that concept of
society — it is this “higher” that they can
keep their attention fixed on, as all the
other particular targets (immigrants,
academics, civil servants, black people, gay
people, etc.) get rotated in and out as
opportunities arise. <br>
<br>
So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns
out to be, over time, a loss for Zelenskyy —
the reality behind the literary Faustian
Bargain — he may not be worse off having the
break occur earlier. I don’t know what it may
buy him to have humiliated t and v, by having
the dignity to not accept those terms of
conversation, in terms of coalition-building
with other heads of state. <br>
<br>
<br>
I do continue to wonder what China’s play in
this will be. I imagine they think they will
have no trouble “managing” Russia into some
kind of continuing subordinate status, when it
is alone with a gigantic land area but a
limited economy and population. If it were
even just Russia swallowing Ukraine, China
might still think of that as an okay outcome.
I feel pretty sure they want the rare earths,
in view of their relations with Mongolia up to
now, and the fact that the only thing
protecting Taiwan is that it holds the entire
world’s highest technology as a trust, and
collapsing it would cause such a large global
implosion that it would destabilize China as
well, for now. But they probably figure they
can get those from Russian control, where
Russia couldn’t develop them internally
anyway. An actual coalition of Russia with
the U.S., however, could become more worrisome
for China, even if the U.S. is undergoing a
process of self-degradation. So it is not
inconceivable to me that China could want some
stalemate to go on a while longer, which
limits the coordination of the trumpers with
other large actors as much as feasible.
Another Faustian bargain for Zelenskyy if it
is offered. But maybe more predictable in the
short term. <br>
<br>
But there, too, I don’t know anything.<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith
<<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
> <br>
> <br>
>> It's way too generous to say "Trump
has a case". Trump and Vance's "case" consists
of "You should be grateful to us because we
give you money". I.e. suck up to me and I'll
deign to give you more money.<br>
> I don't think Trump or Vance have backed
any significant support for Ukraine. The US
people through our elected representatives and
tax dollars *HAVE* supported Ukraine (albeit a
little slowly an a little anemically and a
little timidly sometimes?). Zelensky has
been extravagantly and eloquently thankful to
all of the above. Trump and Vance were
spoiling for an opportunity to try to
humiliate Zelensky in front of the cameras, so
they contrived it.<br>
>> Maybe someone makes the case you say
is Trump's. But it's not Trump making that
case. If he sporadically vomits words that
sound like that, it's because they were put
into his mouth by someone else. The question
is Who put them there? Putin? Elno? Thiel?<br>
> <br>
> The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was
extortion. Whether Ukraine's mineral
resources could or should be mortgaged to
secure the financial support is one thing, but
the idea that the point of the West supporting
Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive Putin-led
Russia is about economics completely misses
the point. Zelensky is right to avoid "doing
business with" anyone who is not a clear
staunch ally when in this situation.<br>
> <br>
> Trump & Allies are clearly "War
Profiteers", a fine old tradition among the
industrialists and financiers of the "free
world".<br>
> <br>
> <br>
>> <br>
>> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp
wrote:<br>
>>> Just watched a new episode where
two toddlers threw their toys out of the cot.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> Zelensky makes a strong case —
Putin is unreliable, having broken numerous
agreements in the past, so any peace deal
would need ironclad security guarantees. But
lecturing Trump is hardly the way to secure a
favorable minerals trade agreement.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> Trump also has a valid case — the
war is stagnating, there’s no realistic
military path to driving Russia out of
Ukraine, and pursuing peace makes sense. But
losing your temper at an international press
conference is not the way to get there.<br>
>>> <br>
>>> At the end of the day, they’re
all human, and it makes for great real-life
drama. I can't wait for the next episode!<br>
>>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
> <OpenPGP_0xD5BAF94F88AFFA63.asc>.-
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. / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-.
. / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span>-- </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">++++++++++++++++++++++++++++<br>
Tom Johnson - <a
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class="moz-txt-link-freetext">tom@jtjohnson.com</a><br>
+1 505 577 6482<br>
Santa Fe, New Mexico USA<br>
<b><a href="https://nmwriters.org/"
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</b>++++++++++++++++++++++++++++</p>
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<fieldset></fieldset>
<pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a
href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a
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1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/"
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class="moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
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.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-.
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Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam"
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<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
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