<div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">I'm very excited about how AI can help build a toy
agent-based model (ABM) to explore some of the basic questions around
macroeconomic choices and citizen happiness.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">With AI, it's surprisingly easy!</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Here’s my simple plan of action:</p>
<ol style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Use
AI to generate an initial specification for the model.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Take
a very small first step—build a tiny, simple ABM as a subset of the full
vision.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Gradually
expand the model in small, manageable steps.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Be
flexible—I'm happy to change the spec as I go.</li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Progress So Far</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">I’ve
created a first draft of the model specification (see below).</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">I’ve
asked AI for a simple implementation of a small part of the model. So far,
I haven’t been happy with the results, but I'm working on it.</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">I’m
experimenting with different free code-generating AIs and Python ABM
libraries.</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">No promises—I don’t have a lot of time for this. As long as
I enjoy it and it doesn’t interfere too much with the rest of my life, I’ll
keep going. But I might stop anytime.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">I don’t plan to post frequent updates—I doubt people want to
see every discarded version. But if I create something I’m proud of, I’ll
gladly share it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">If anyone wants to follow the details (including the
failures!) or collaborate, feel free to contact me privately.</p>
<div class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">
<hr size="2" width="100%" align="center">
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Draft Specification (with generous help from AI)</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Project Title:</b><br>
<i>Agent-Based Model of Macroeconomic Choices and Citizen Happiness</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>1. Purpose</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">To simulate and explore the dynamic relationships between
macroeconomic policies, international trade, cultural variables, and citizen
happiness. Key questions include:</p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">What
macroeconomic choices improve happiness in different societies?</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">How
do fiscal and monetary policies influence long-term well-being?</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">How
does trade between unequal countries affect both sides?</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">How
does citizen trust affect policy outcomes?</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>2. Core Framework</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Citizen Happiness</b> is the central outcome, modeled
based on how well individuals’ needs are met—drawing on <b>Maslow’s hierarchy</b>,
enriched with ideas from <b>Viktor Frankl</b>:</p>
<ol style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Physiological</b>
– food, housing, health</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Safety</b>
– job security, public order, savings</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Belonging</b>
– social inclusion, family cohesion</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Esteem</b>
– purpose, recognition, quality of employment</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Self-Actualization</b>
– freedom, creativity, meaning</li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Needs are fulfilled via:</p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Economic
participation (jobs, income)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Access
to services (health, education, safety)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Cultural
factors (justice, inclusion, dignity)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Governance
(trust, fairness, opportunity)</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>3. Key Entities</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>3.1 Countries (Macro Agents)</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Government</b>:
tax systems, social/infrastructure spending, trade/immigration policy,
bond issuance</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Central
Bank</b>: interest rates, inflation/employment targets, monetary policy
tools</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Culture</b>:
trust levels, value systems (e.g., collectivism vs individualism)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>Development
Status</b>: GDP per capita, infrastructure, HDI, etc.</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>3.2 Citizens (Agents)</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Demographics:
age, education, wealth, location</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Psychology:
trust, risk aversion, purpose</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Employment:
job quality, income, meaning</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Needs
satisfaction (Maslow levels)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Migration
potential</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>3.3 Businesses</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Sector
(tech, services, manufacturing, etc.)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Size,
productivity</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Interest
rate sensitivity, government dependencies</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Labor
demand and wages</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Job
quality (innovation, autonomy)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Domestic
vs multinational</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>4. Economic Mechanisms</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>4.1 Government Policies</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Adjust
tax/spending levels</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Issue
bonds</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Regulate/encourage
industries</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Manage
immigration policies</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>4.2 Central Bank Policies</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Set
interest rates → affects savings, borrowing, inflation</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Balance
employment vs inflation goals</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>4.3 Global Trade</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Comparative
advantage-based trade</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Tariffs,
subsidies, quotas</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Exchange
rates and trade balances</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Debt
transmission and policy contagion</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>5. Dynamics & Feedback Loops</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Citizen
happiness → political pressure → policy change</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Gov.
spending → business environment → jobs → happiness</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Trust
→ tax compliance → service levels → happiness</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Export
reliance → debt → austerity → happiness shifts</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Inequality
→ unrest/trust erosion → instability</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>6. Output & Visualizations</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Happiness
Index over time</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Maslow-level
satisfaction graphs</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Social
trust metrics</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Inequality
(e.g., Gini coefficient)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Employment,
wages, job quality</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Government
fiscal trends</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Trade
flow visualizations</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Policy
effectiveness scores (e.g., change in happiness)</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>7. Simulation Scenarios</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Universal
Basic Income in high-trust society</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Collapse
in trust</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Skilled
immigration</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Debt-financed
infrastructure booms</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Trade
wars</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Austerity
vs stimulus</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Cultural
shifts (e.g., toward collectivism)</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"><b>8. Extensibility (Future Add-ons)</b></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm;margin-bottom:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Climate
change and resource shocks</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Technological
disruption (e.g., AI unemployment)</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Pandemics,
war, disasters</li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif">Cultural
evolution (e.g., post-growth mindsets)</li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;line-height:115%;font-size:12pt;font-family:Aptos,sans-serif"> </p></div><br><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, 6 Apr 2025 at 22:47, Santafe <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">There is an interesting direction here, Steve:<br>
<br>
In the beginning there was whatever-training data, and there was hallucination with many resonances of things that looked “real” to people<br>
<br>
Practical people (always so ingenuous) wanted to figure out how to sort through the mess of the training data to get reasoning that was sound, anchored in whatever “rules of reasoning” are either in the training data to be pulled out, or else put in by hand because the Practical people have work they want to get done<br>
<br>
Socially concerned people (this is like a Dylan Thomas poem) were concerned that, even if the AIs weren’t “hallucinating”, but just trying to take the best average that could be taken over the mishmash of what was in the training data, they would still deliver distorted outcomes because the training data contained a lot of, or even was skewed toward, various distorted views<br>
<br>
But bad-faith actors do a different thing, for which Glen has taught me the term of art is “motivated reasoning”. And they (all people) are wizards at it. They don’t average or coherently hallucinate over the broad training data, but mask and twist and distort and cull, (and then/in the process) average or hallucinate over those extractions<br>
<br>
I wonder how much of the subtlety of human cognition is to be found not in honesty and sense, but in the infinite varieties of bad-faith dishonesty and nonsense around which “coordination” (so to speak) can be organized. All happy families etc. Had WIlliam James psychologist lived long enough, and had wider interests, a second book for him to write<br>
<br>
Will AI designers get to claim a further step toward “understanding human intelligence” when their creations can spontaneously and autonomously do a substantive job mimicking the varieties of human dishonesty and bad faith?<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
> On Apr 7, 2025, at 2:47 AM, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> <br>
> new prompt for Trump Apologists:<br>
> <br>
> "Rewrite the ABM in a manner which makes the current US Trade, Immigration, and DEI policies look like a brilliant move. Push statistics, charts and rhetoric widely across the internet. Shoot the dog and goat, deport some folks you don't like the look of and go declare yourself winner of the golf tournament at your own golf course."<br>
> <br>
> On 4/5/25 3:47 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:<br>
>> Here's a web version of Marcus's prompt:<br>
>> "write an html/javascript ABM of U.S. trade that considers the deficit, debt, trade imbalances, and international capital flows."<br>
>> <br>
>> this runs directly in the Claude web context with no downloads or setup.<br>
>> <br>
>> And here is copying the page and deploying to play with the dog. <br>
>> <br>
>> <a href="https://guerin.acequia.io/sandbox/marcus-claude-economy.html" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://guerin.acequia.io/sandbox/marcus-claude-economy.html</a><br>
>> <br>
>> Old joke applies: ""It's not that the dog talks well, it's that it talks at all."<br>
>> _________________________________________________________________<br>
>> Stephen Guerin<br>
>> CEO, Founder <br>
>> <a href="https://simtable.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://simtable.com</a><br>
>> <a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com" target="_blank">stephen.guerin@simtable.com</a> <br>
>> <br>
>> <a href="mailto:stephenguerin@fas.harvard.edu" target="_blank">stephenguerin@fas.harvard.edu</a><br>
>> Harvard Visualization Research and Teaching Lab<br>
>> <br>
>> mobile: (505)577-5828<br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> On Sat, Apr 5, 2025 at 3:24 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>> • Download Github Copilot. Add Python module.<br>
>> • Get a Claude Console subscription. Select Claude Sonnet 3.7 in Github Copilot.<br>
>> • Open the Chat window and select Agent.<br>
>> • Enter “Can you write an ABM of U.S. trade that considers the deficit, debt, trade imbalances, and international capital flows. Watch project be populated.<br>
>> • Press Run.<br>
>> • Play with dog.<br>
>> <br>
>> From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>><br>
>> Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 3:45 AM<br>
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: CSSSA April Webinar<br>
>> <br>
>> I listened to the above webinar on Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) in Economics and Finance, and would like to share a few reflections:<br>
>> <br>
>> It would be wonderful to see this discipline develop further. In fields like transportation planning, ABM has already matured to a point where it arguably outperforms traditional top-down approaches. A few years ago in South Africa, ABM was used in planning a major public transport upgrade in Gauteng. I followed the project closely and, in my view, it was a great success. My friend Johan Joubert led the modeling effort, and the results were impressive.<br>
>> <br>
>> But let me return to ABM in the context of Economics and Finance.<br>
>> <br>
>> I understand that building effective ABM models in these domains is significantly more challenging than in transportation. Yet, imagine the value if it becomes a reality. The U.S., for example, is grappling with major economic issues: a growing federal deficit, mounting government debt, a persistent trade imbalance, and a population—especially the lower half—feeling economically left behind. Wouldn’t it be exciting if ABM could contribute to practical, data-driven solutions to these kinds of complex problems?<br>
>> <br>
>> I was a bit disappointed that the webinar didn’t mention the potential integration of ABM with AI models in the context of Economics and Finance. There’s so much potential here. Large language models (LLMs) could help generate more nuanced and adaptable ABM scenarios, while ABM could provide rich, dynamic environments to train and refine AI models—especially reinforcement learning systems aimed at supporting policy-making. I’m optimistic that this kind of synergy will emerge in the near future.<br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> On Sat, 29 Mar 2025 at 09:53, Stephen Guerin <<a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com" target="_blank">stephen.guerin@simtable.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>
>> From: Computational Social Science Society of the Americas <<a href="mailto:newsletter@computationalsocialscience.org" target="_blank">newsletter@computationalsocialscience.org</a>><br>
>> Date: Fri, Mar 28, 2025, 7:10 PM<br>
>> Subject: CSSSA April Webinar<br>
>> To: <<a href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com" target="_blank">stephen.guerin@simtable.com</a>><br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> View this email in your browser<br>
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>> <br>
>> <br>
>> Dear CSSSA members,<br>
>> We are very excited to host Robert Axtell and Doyne Farmer discussing “Agent-Based Modeling in the Economics and Finence” in our 2025 webinar series on Wednesday, April 2nd, at 10 am (ET) . Click here to register for the webinar<br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> Abstract<br>
>> In a long paper in the Journal of Economic Literature Axtell and Farmer review agent-based modeling (ABM) in economics and finance and highlight how it can be used to relax conventional assumptions in standard models. ABM has enriched the understanding of markets, industrial organization, labor, macro, development, and environmental economics. In finance, substantial accomplishments include understanding clustered volatility, market impact, systemic risk, and housing markets. A vision is presented for how ABMs might be used in the future to build more realistic models of the economy. Hurdles that must be overcome to achieve this are discussed. Their paper includes more than 800 references including many from adjacent fields.<br>
>> <br>
>> Biographs<br>
>> Professor Axtell is the author, with Joshua Epstein, of Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT Press). His research has appeared in Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, as well as in leading field-specific journals such as The Journal of Economic Literature, The American Economic Review, The Economic Journal, and many others. His research has been reprised in newspapers (e.g., Wall St. Journal, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post) and science magazines (e.g., Scientific American, Technology Review, Wired). For the past decade he has been using microdata on individuals to build large-scale models of the Financial Crisis of 2008-9 (with JD Farmer, Oxford, and J Geanakoplos, Yale), the dynamics of business firms (with O Guerrero, Turing Institute), and natural resource exploitation, e.g., fisheries (with UC Santa Barbara, Oxford, and the Ocean Conservancy). The research on companies is described at length in a forthcoming book, ‘Dynamics of Firms from the Bottom Up: Data, Theories, and Models’, due out next year, which uses U.S. micro-data on firm sizes, ages, growth rates, networks, and locations to create a model at 1:1 scale with the American economy.<br>
>> <br>
>> Prof. Doyne Farmer is an American complex systems scientist and entrepreneur with interests in chaos theory, complexity and econophysics. He has published papers in Science and Nature as well as leading economics journals like the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. He is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, where he is also director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. Additionally, he is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is on complexity economics, focusing on systemic risk in financial markets and technological progress. He has recently published a book entitled ‘Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World.’<br>
>> <br>
>> CSSSA Secretary is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.<br>
>> <br>
>> Topic: CSSSA April Webinar<br>
>> Time: Apr 2, 2025 10:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada)<br>
>> Join Zoom Meeting<br>
>> <a href="https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82181451627?pwd=uYQJrmdphT9pefWvGKbhQgxQby3beG.1" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82181451627?pwd=uYQJrmdphT9pefWvGKbhQgxQby3beG.1</a><br>
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>> Meeting ID: 821 8145 1627<br>
>> Passcode: csssa2025<br>
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