<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"></head><body dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Nice model! Not bad. One aspect we could try to model is the distribution of supply chains in a globalized world. </span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">In 2021 the average gross income in the US was about 70,430, in Taiwan 21,689, in China 11,890, in India 2170, and in Myanmar 1,140. Supply chains of companies in a world where income differs so much will obviously end sooner or later in low income countries. Typical supply chain lines for Apple are for instance Apple (California) > TSMC (Taiwan) > Factory (Guangdong Province, China) or Apple (California) > Foxconn (Taiwan) > Factory (Henan Province, China).</span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">How are supply chains affected if transportation costs rise or tariffs are imposed?</span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">What would cause a world-wide economic crisis in such a model and how would it look like? </span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">One of the most famous models on a global scale is the world3 model from the Club of Rome. Brian Hayes decided to rewrite the world3 model in Javascript</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">http://bit-player.org/limits</span></p><br dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The article is here</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.americanscientist.org/article/computation-and-the-human-predicament</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">-J.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0pt;margin-bottom:0.0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br></span></p><div><br></div><div align="left" dir="auto" style="font-size:100%;color:#000000"><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters@randcontrols.co.za> </div><div>Date: 5/1/25 7:48 PM (GMT+01:00) </div><div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> </div><div>Subject: [FRIAM] agent-based macroeconomic model </div><div><br></div></div><div dir="ltr">I made a very "quick and dirty" start on developing an agent-based macroeconomic model.<br><br>Posted about it on X: <a href="https://x.com/pietersteenekam/status/1917995128678986170">https://x.com/pietersteenekam/status/1917995128678986170</a> , the post reads as follows:<br><br>Me: “Let’s understand global macroeconomic policy better.”<br>Also me: Builds a crude ABM with AI because economists can’t agree on tariffs.<br><br>Is it useful? Not yet.<br>Is it cool? Heck yes.<br><br>🔗 <a href="https://github.com/pieterSteenekamp/bottom-up-macroeconomics">https://github.com/pieterSteenekamp/bottom-up-macroeconomics</a>"<br></div>
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